Recent content by ChrisA

The Drake equation would be usfull, but you have to also run the "error bars" or uncertainty through it. This way don't just get that there are 12,000 civiizations but rather "There are between zero and 12,000,000 civilizations". You need to put the 6-sigma error bars on all the numbers or...

Yes, 100%. They will never catch a manned ship with a crew inside using chopsticks. Doing the water-abort is not an option with a crew. One option I see is to place a Crew Dragon like capsule on top of starship. Or maybe replace the entire second stage with a space shuttle style design.

This is a link to the exact camera they are using. https://4dsystems.com.au/products/ucam-iii/ You have to remember that the entire satellite is a 3-inch cube

There is a major flaw in the whole concept of listening for a techno-signature. It assumes there would be massive energy leakage. If the technology is very advanced it would not waste any energy by radiating it out to space. The only signals that you leave would be targeted communications...

Yes. Both are looking for confirmation of a belief that is not based on reason. So many people want Star Trek to be true or for there really to be gods living on Mt Olympus. My argument is that SETI is a real science because it has returned real data. We now know a lot more about the...

And by your argument, if I stood on a sheet of newspaper I could see farther. Everyone knows that if you are taller you can see further, so the added height gained should help. So yes an impact on the Moon should affect the tides but the amount is too tiny to measure and other effects, I...

Negative results are still "Good Science". What we are learning or have learned is that technological civilizations are at least VERY rare. As we observe more and more in the coming decades we will be able to refine this and say "'very rare" with greater precision. Perhaps we will...

People are asking why the test program ends so early. I think because the entire point of the test flight was to validate the company's aerodynamic simulation software. If the plan flies exactly as the software predicted it would fly, now they are confident the software works. So as said...

Can a 2026 version of Starship land with any payload mass, or would the ship have to be empty? If we wait some years we will have a more capable Starship with three more engines and larger fuel tanks. Then there is the problem that a rover and ascent vehicle would not be ready so soon.

Yes. Starship just might have enough capability to take an actual payload to Mars. It would be harder to land with the added weight and then you need the added weight and complexity of a door and a crane or elevator. All this adds engineering hours, testing hours and cost and or course...

We can easily guess where the idea of sending people to Mars in 2029 comes from. Elon Musk clearly wants a huge contract with NASA to try and do it. He knows they can't possibly meet a 2029 deadline but that does not matter. What is important is to get that huge 100 billion dollar contract...

The big problem with the 2029 date is the Earth-to-Mars launch windows. No matter how much money you have, you can only launch to Mars when the planets have the correct alignment. I mean you just can't fly through the Sun to Get to Mars. The way you get there has to be to enter into an...

This idea only works if somehow the space probe can store the energy from the beam and then convert the stored energy to thrust. The words "storing the energy from the beam" are just hand waving unless someone can show that it is at least possible. They did not even suggest it in the article.

But we are talking about a spacecraft that is powered by an electron beam. We have to assume there is some like oc beam receiver that always has to face Earth. If you flip the spacecraft around, then it is unpowered. The bigger problem is that the people who invented this idea of using an...

Let's assume this works. What happens if there is a tiny spec of dust ahead of the spacecraft's path? The dust would hit the spacecraft at 10% of the speed of light. How much armor plate do you need? THen there is the problem of how to decelerate