2006 Leonids Results

[MeteorWayne]

The Leonids have always been at the forefront of meteor astronomy.<br />The 1833 storm, where dozens of meteors per second flashed across the sky was the start.<br />Over the last decade, observations of the Leonids by hundreds of amateur astronomers worldwide have allowed vast improvements in mathamatical models describing the formation, position, and timing of fresh cometary dust streams that produce higher than normal meteor rates.<br /><br />So what are the prospects for 2006?<br /><br />Certainly, the storm rates of the years surrounding Tempel-Tuttle's perihelion in 1998 are but unforgettable memories.<br />However, there are unknowns and much to learn. The traditional peak of this year's Leonids will be at 2050UT on November 17th. This should produce 10 to 15 per hour.<br />These improved models have suggested possible enhancements to the meteor rates at ~ 0445 UT Nov 19 (about 1145 PM EST Saturday night), (2:55 AM Monday morning) 0755 UT Nov 20, and 0124 UT Nov 21. These COULD produce rates of several dozen per hour. Observations are needed! <br />So if you want to see some Leonids, the <br />period from the 15th to the 22nd is prime time. The moon will be new on the 20th, so should not be a factor- an all dark night!<br /><br />The Leonids are the debris from comet 55P Tempel-Tuttle. This comet approaches us nearly head on, so these are the fastest meteors of any shower. They hit the atmosphere at 71 km/sec (44 miles/sec, ~159,000 mph) and as a result many leave long lasting trains.<br />The fact that they hit us head on causes some observational problems, however. At 40 North Latitude, the radiant does not rise until 2300 local time. That means it is IMPOSSIBLE to see Leonid meteors before 9:30 PM. It is very unlikely to see any before 11PM, although not impossible. Useful scientific observations can only be conducted after midnight.<br /><br />If you are a casual observer, and just want to see some really fast meteors, you can go out around 11 PM or so. Any Leonids that <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

{hump day bump}<br /><br />Recent calculations have indicated the 0445 UT November 19 (11:45 PM EST Saturday night) peak might produce />= 100 per hour of FAINT meteors <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Sorry to hear that.<br />I'll let you know what we see here if the weather cooperates (highly unlikely) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[blazincajun]

Do any of you know if I will be able to see any of them from south Louisiana? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Yes you will be able to see some.<br />Enough to get up at Midnight and spend a few hours outside?<br />That's personal choice. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />I'll look up the times for your general location and get back.<br /><br />MW <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[newtron]

I can't wait to see them, if I do.<br /><br />I may or may not have a comparably decent view with those of you in the east (the midnight peak for your time zone will be around ten here in New Mexico). Its very clear and dark out where I am, and this will essentially be my first good meteor shower.<br /><br />Good luck to everyone and their viewings, hopefully you're not in a too cloudy or hazy area (Blast you Connecticut ).

 

[blazincajun]

I appreciate it. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

I sure wish my skies were that dark.<br />Good luck!<br /><br />BTW, it cleared up a bit, rather surprisingly, last night.<br />Behind the clouds it was quite clear and pleasantly warm down here on the surface. But it was only "sucker holes", and the clouds were moving so fast, that you'd sprain your neck following them.<br />I did spend a few minutes looking when a hole was overhead but saw no meteors.<br />Hopefully tonight will be better so I can get a feel for this year's baseline activity level. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Up to the minute results reported to the International Meteor Organization are here at Leonids Live <br /><br />They indicated a peak ZHR around 60/ hour, somewhat lower than predicted. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

As more data has rolled in, peak ZHR has been reduced to approx 52, about 15 minutes earlier than the predicted time of 0445 UT Nov 19.<br /><br />The link above changes as more reports are submitted. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[pioneer0333]

Sadly, I have not seen any leonids this time. I do have the luck to see stray shooting stars every now and then, but since 2001, the leonids have been my focal point. <br /><br /> I guess I'll have to wait till next year for another chance<img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

I only saw one this year. So far anyway. If it clears up early tomorrow morning, I'll give it a shot.<br /><br />If you are interested in seeing meteors, I fear the Leonids are over for the next few decades. Most likely they will return to the 10-15 per hour level that is normal between times when the comet enters our neighborhood. The next time Tempel-Tuttle returns is in 2032.<br /><br />If you want to see lots, the Geminids (Dec 13 ish) are the best target with ZHR's />100, and less humid winter skies.<br /><br />I'll post more on them after the next Full moon. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

A more complete set of analysis by the International Meteor Organization of the Leonids is here <br /><br />It showed a peak ZHR of ~ 64 very close to the predicted time. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>