2009: 5 Asteroids on the JPL Sentry Impact Risk Page

[MeteorWayne]

<p>With all the hoopla about the canadian fireball, I thought this might be a good time to include a list of objects that have a non-zero risk of impacting the earth in 2009. There are currently 5 asteroids on the list.</p><p>In order of possible impact date, here they are. All are on the list primarily because they were observed for such a short amount of time (from .02 to 3 days) the potential orbit and position errors are huge, and the earth lies within that error ellipse. They range in size from 6 meters (about the size of the canadian fireball) to 1.2 km in size, which would be a huge event.</p><p>The first is the smallest, 6 meter sized 2004 FU162 with 1 in 43 million odds of impacting earth on the 31st of March. The impact energy would be 0.73 kilotons, and this object certainly would break up in the atmosphere.</p><p>On April 18th, 500 meter wide 2004 XY 130 has a 1 in 12 million chance. The energy would be 2730 Megatons</p><p>On June 25th, 310 meter sized 2008 AO112 has a 1 in 4 million chance. Energy 651 Megatons</p><p>On August 29th, the largest object, 1.2 km sized 2004 BX159 would release as astounding 93,000 Megatons of energy, but the odds are fortunately only 1 in a billion.</p><p>Finally, October 9th sees a 20 meter sized 2006 SF281 with odds of 1 in 24 million would release 170 kilotons of energy.</p><p>If any of these objects do come close to earth it is quite likely they would be recovered and the odds would plummet.</p><p>As those dates approach, I'll gather up the latest information.</p><p>Wayne</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[silylene]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>With all the hoopla about the canadian fireball,........The first is the smallest, 6 meter sized 2004 FU162 with 1 in 43 million odds of impacting earth on the 31st of March. <strong><font color="#ff0000">The impact energy would be 0.73 kilotons</font></strong>, and this object certainly would break up in the atmosphere.........Wayne <br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV></p><p>In comparison, the recent Canadian fireball had an energy of about 0.1 kiloton when it entered the earth's atmosphere: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5h3sZQRXJE_Nb4nKhJUa99E2f1GngD94O56M00</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font size="1">petet = <font color="#800000"><strong>silylene</strong></font></font></p><p align="center"><font size="1">Please, please give me my handle back !</font></p> </div>

 

[Boris_Badenov]

<font size="2">Weellll! I just checked the orbits of all those rocks on the NEO Program&nbsp;&nbsp;&&nbsp;the post I wrote&nbsp;seems to have ended up in Cyberspace oblivion. Anyway,&nbsp;what I found was that none of these asteroids you listed gets any closer that .5 AU next year, & only 1 gets that close. Are you working with old data MW?</font>&nbsp; <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Weellll! I just checked the orbits of all those rocks on the NEO Program&nbsp;&nbsp;&&nbsp;the post I wrote&nbsp;seems to have ended up in Cyberspace oblivion. Anyway,&nbsp;what I found was that none of these asteroids you listed gets any closer that .5 AU next year, & only 1 gets that close. Are you working with old data MW?&nbsp; <br />Posted by boris1961</DIV><br /><br />No, those orbits are based on the best fit orbit. But the uncertainties are huge due to to the very short observation arc. They are so huge that the error ellipse exceed&nbsp;0.5 AU. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>In comparison, the recent Canadian fireball had an energy of about 0.1 kiloton when it entered the earth's atmosphere: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5h3sZQRXJE_Nb4nKhJUa99E2f1GngD94O56M00 <br />Posted by petet</DIV><br /><br />BTW, Meteor Crater in Arizona was created by an iron meteorite about 50 meters in diameter <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[aphh]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>BTW, Meteor Crater in Arizona was created by an iron meteorite about 50 meters in diameter <br /> Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV></p><p>Czar Bomba, biggest nuclear device ever detonated, yielded 50 megatons. The circle of destruction on the ground reached hundreds of kilometers and the effect was felt thousand kilometers away.&nbsp;</p><p>If a 1000 megaton monster collided with us, God help us.&nbsp;</p><p>Speaking of disasters, is it absolutely not possible, that the 2004 Tsunami in the far-East was not caused by an asteroid hitting the Indian Ocean?&nbsp;</p>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Czar Bomba, biggest nuclear device ever detonated, yielded 50 megatons. The circle of destruction on the ground reached hundreds of kilometers and the effect was felt thousand kilometers away.&nbsp;If a 1000 megaton monster collided with us, God help us.&nbsp;Speaking of disasters, is it absolutely not possible, that the 2004 Tsunami in the far-East was not caused by an asteroid hitting the Indian Ocean?&nbsp; <br />Posted by aphh</DIV><br /><br />No, it is not possible. That tsunami was created by the Sumatra quake. The waves propgated from that point and at that time. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[weeman]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>No, it is not possible. That tsunami was created by the Sumatra quake. The waves propgated from that point and at that time. <br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV><br /><br />Wayne, if any of these do come close, then the reaction of your avatar will fit nicely with the widespread panic! <img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/content/scripts/tinymce/plugins/emotions/images/smiley-wink.gif" border="0" alt="Wink" title="Wink" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><strong><font color="#ff0000">Techies: We do it in the dark. </font></strong></p><p><font color="#0000ff"><strong>"Put your hand on a stove for a minute and it seems like an hour. Sit with that special girl for an hour and it seems like a minute. That's relativity.</strong><strong>" -Albert Einstein </strong></font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Wayne, if any of these do come close, then the reaction of your avatar will fit nicely with the widespread panic! <br />Posted by weeman</DIV><br /><br />Of course, I'll be smiling </p><p>BTW, <font color="#0000ff">Meteor Observers do it all night long...</font></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>