Asteroid 2006 CD-Potential July Impact

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MeteorWayne

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There is only one object on the JPL's impact risk page as of now in 2008.<br /><br />It's 2006 CD. It's actually a pretty substantial sized asteroid (~212 meters)so will bear some attention later in the year.<br /><br />Unfortunately, it's orbit is based on only 12 observations over a 2 day period in 2006 almost exactly 2 years ago.<br /><br />The JPL MOID is quite large (0.142007 AU = over 21,000,000 km) but because of the paucity of observations, the error ellipses include the earth.<br /><br />In fact, if you look at the JPL applet, you will see that on the potential impact date (2317 UT July 11), it is expected to be over 2 AU away from us, on the opposite side of the sun, and probably invisible.<br />Again the large errors are due to the short observation period.<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -4.98 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -4.83 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 3.8e-08 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 60 (From 2008 to 2105)<br /><br />I'll show the JPL orbital parameters, just in case it should be recovered<br />so we can see the resultant changes. If those parameters are correct, the next opportunity to spot it will be in late 2010.<br /><br />If you want to play with the lpl's impact effects page, use diamter 212 meters, impact velocity 15.88 kps<br /><br />Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma) Units <br />e =0.431761196472137 +/-0.18688 <br />a =1.86521688673527 +/-1.0498 AU <br />q =1.05988861203842 +/-0.25534 AU <br />i =9.00088833411842 +/-0.90082 deg <br />node= 105.3449065578235+/- 4.1663 deg <br />peri= 297.933945602951 +/-40.041 deg <br />M =29.26958704612472 +/-36.231 deg <br />tp =2453692.850418588387<br />(2005-Nov-18.35041859) 30.024 JED <br />period =930.4487031287459 +/-785.53 days<br />period=2.55 +/-2.151 years<br /><br />n .3869100991698485 0.32665 deg/d <br />Q 2.670545161432126 1.5031 AU <br /><br />Note that the period is 930 +/- 785 days, so certaily more measurements are needed !!!<br /><br />NEODyS:<br /><br />a (AU) 1.86573 <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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logicize

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I have been playing with that link, it's a lot of fun. Thanks.<br /><br />"Max wind velocity: 101 m/s = 225 mph <br />Sound Intensity: 94 dB (May cause ear pain) "<br /><br />You probably wouldn't be thinking much about the ear pain.<br />
 
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MeteorWayne

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LOL, probably right since you'd be rolling across the land tail over teakettle <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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