Asteroid the size of 99942 Apophis would cause immense damage if impacted in metropolitan area.

Jan 31, 2020
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We all know that there is a very slim chance that the asteroid 99942 Apophis will impact earth in 2029 and a higher chance of impact in 2039. Many say that we should knock Apophis off of its track in 2029 and make sure there is no chance of it hitting in 2039. What do you guys think of this? I mean.. better safe than sorry.

Currently, we know that Apophis is about 380 meters in diameter, although asteroids are not perfect circles so this may be a bit off. I inputted a 380 meter in diameter asteroid into an asteroid collision simulation and set the location to a metropolitan area. The results I saw were very unsettling.. Fortunately, most or almost all of the world is not metropolitan and very rural so even if Apophis does collide in a rural area, not too many people would be effected. Tell me if I am wrong, will Apophis cause fallout if it collides?

Main question here: will Apophis cause fallout if it collides with earth?

Thanks for listening to my long ramble.. anyways have a great day guys! :D:eek::D
 
Feb 18, 2020
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A very simple comparison gives Apophis at about 380 metres in diameter and Tunguska about 50 to 190 metres diameter. As well as these figures (all sourced from … ) Wiki states (about Tunguska) "An explosion of this magnitude would be capable of destroying a large metropolitan area." So, if Apophis is 2 to 8 times the diameter, would it be capable of 2 to 8 times the damage as Tunguska?

Now, before you all (correctly) jump in, this is a gross simplification.
First, "diameter" cannot accurately be applied to anything but a sphere. Often allowance is made for this by calculating what the diameter would be related to some other variable, such as mass. However, it does seem that Apophis is considerably larger than the Tunguska object was. Just search Tunguska and look at the pictures of hectares of flattened trees.

Second, the composition of the object (asteroid, stony or metallic or comet residue) is very important.
I haven't yet found if these are known for certain but it would give very different results if the objects were made of solid metal or loose aggregates of silicate rubble and/or frozen water or other ices.

There, you have some opportunities to correct and/or expand on my suggestion. Have fun.

Cat :)


P.S. For comparison, the object thought to have extinguished the dinosaurs is estimated at 11 to 81 kilometres (7 to 50 miles) in diameter. 🦖🦕🦖🦕🦖🦕
 
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