Baikonur future

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extropiandreams

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Russian defence minister Ivanov said last month that all military and dual-purpose launches would be moved to domestic soil - to plesetzk. <br /><br />The new Angara rocket(first launch still planed for 2010) would allow to reach GEO with some interesting orbital maneuvers. So when all military and government launches go to plesetzk, it's easy to guess they will also move domestic russian com sats(like express or yamal) to plesetzk.<br /><br />All commercial soyuz launches will move to korou, starting in 2008. Dnepr can now also be launched from Dombarovsky. Rockot already launches from plesetzk, there are only a couple of tsyklones left - that leaves ISS soyuz launches, the proton and a planned angara joint venture in baikonour.<br /><br /> ESA is asking for manned launch capability in korou, so it could well be that there will be an alternative for iss launches. The Proton will be replaced by the angara launcher. A new russian space station would use a higher inclination(planned for mir-2) so all launches for it could take place from plesetzk. So in the long term all that could be left for baikonur are commercial angara and landlaunch(zenit-2) launches. <br /><br />I doubt the russians would continue to pay 500 millions $/year when they don't need baikonur for their state programs. So are we seeing the end of baikonur in the mid to long term ?
 
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willpittenger

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It's not really far enough south for most commercial operators to consider leasing it, but if the price is right, who knows. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>
 
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shoogerbrugge

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Well, I'd say that the future of Baikonur is quite bright.<br /><br />Proton will be around for quite a long time. First flight from Angara is only scheduled for 2010 and mainly in the light version. It will be quite some time before the heavy version will fly from Plestek. Until that time heavy GEO/MEO birds will have to be launched from Baikonur. (Yamal, GLONASS etc.). And no spade has been driven into the ground to build an Angara pad at Baikonur.<br /><br />Zenit will be available from Baikonur and Sea Launch only. But also in a 3 stage version from Baikonur, either with a Block DM or Fregat upper stage. There is already quite a backlog with foreign and domestic satellites for both versions<br /><br />Dnepr can indeed be launched from Dombarsky/Yasny, it hasn't got the proper infrastructure for complicated satellite integration, hopefully they will use Baikonur for Dnepr for next 5 to 10 years.<br /><br />Tsyklon seems not to be going anywhere indeed, we are still waiting for any news of the Brazilian cooperation on restarting the production. <br /><br />Certain Soyuz mission will move to Kourou (only a few Arianespace thinks about 2 a year), but the lionshare will be launched from Biakonur, for lower inclination flights and escape trajectory Baikonur will be neccesary. The new version of the Soyuz will replace Molinya at Plestek, but not replace current Soyuz flights from Baikonur.<br /><br />Plestek has got a couple of things going for it, Cosmos 3M and Rockot are good launchers. However its not as open for Commercial launches as Baikonur. Until this date no GEO launches took place from Baikonur, even though theoretically possible. Flights to low inclination orbits and MEO are difficult, for these purposes Baikonur will remain a corner stone for Russian launches. The number of high inclination flights have however grown from Baikonur recently. <br /><br />Russia 3rd Cosmodrome, which was supposed to replace Baikonur, Zvozidy in the East will be closed by 2008, after the fin
 
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mithridates

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All that I know about this subject is what Wikipedia has told me:<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 the Russian space program continued to operate from Baikonur under the auspices of the Commonwealth of Independent States. In 1995 the city surrounding the spaceport was renamed Baikonur. On June 8, 2005 the Russian Federation Council ratified an agreement between Russia and Kazakhstan extending Russia’s rent term of the spaceport until 2050. The rent price - which is fixed at 115 million US dollars per year - is the source of a long-running dispute between the two countries. That dispute has prompted Russia to begin upgrading its own Plesetsk Cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk Oblast of Northern Russia as a fallback option.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>----- </p><p>http://mithridates.blogspot.com</p> </div>
 
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PistolPete

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Here's how I see it possibly going down:<br /><br />Once Angara begins to prove itself with it's heavy Angara 5 version (no earlier than 5 years at best) RKA and the Russian military decide to use the Angara launcher from Plesetsk in its various configurations for all of the Russian Govornment's future launches. Except for Soyuz, of course, for Soyuz TMA launches. This is an obvious decision, because it is far cheaper to mass produce a scaleable launcher made out of common components than it is to buy launches in ones and twos on half a dozen different rockets. The more you mass produce something, the cheaper it is.<br /><br />Meanwhile, ESA and RKA have been eyeing eachother for a partnership for at least five years now. ESA has more cash than the Russians, but no experience with manned spacecraft. The Russians, of course, have little cash but plenty of experience with manned spacecraft of all shapes and sizes. ESA and RKA strike a deal to build a mutual manned spacecraft, winged or otherwise, to be launched on a man-rated Angara 3 or 5 from Kourou via either a new-built pad or by remodeling the Soyuz pad. In the mean time, to gain experience with launching human cargo from Kourou, further Soyuz TMA launches are carried out from there.<br /><br />This leaves Russia with no reason to keep paying over $100 million a year for a launch facility in a foreign country that it no longer needs. Russia finds a legal loop hole in the contract and promptly takes it. Now Khazakastan finds itself with a perfectly good multi-billion dollar launch facility under it's controll, but it seems that all of the rockets have gone elsewhere. What's Kazakastan to do?<br /><br />One advantage that it has is the fact that it does not have to pay so much as a single dime in overhead for construction of the place. This gives them an advantage over all of the other competitors. As stated before by Shoogerbrugge, Plesetsk will probobly be used mainly for govornment and military launches. Ci <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><em>So, again we are defeated. This victory belongs to the farmers, not us.</em></p><p><strong>-Kambei Shimada from the movie Seven Samurai</strong></p> </div>
 
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