I remain unconvinced - deeply pessimistic - and I find it hard to take these pundits seriously. Savant-idiocy, so smart yet not.
"Cislunar cash cows" - is that the same breed that jumps over the moon? I think the problems begin with what they think an economy is and how it works and I see strong indication that they have no idea.
"I don't see an inner solar system in which we don't significantly develop the moon if you're going to go anywhere."
Where are "we going" in the inner solar system? What for? How will that undefined destination pay not only it's own way but pay for moon operations as well? Feel-good 'make humans an interplanetary species' feels good but it isn't a self-sustaining economic activity, it is an economic drain. I fail to see how pursuing a cislunar 'economy' is a stepping stone to anything.
The thing that they do get right is the absolute dependence on government(taxpayer) funding - but how that gets displaced by commercial private enterprise that isn't based on profits from taxpayer funding goes unexplained, how that public investment produces results that ultimately enrich the public here on Earth goes unexplained.
"The basis of an economy has to be something that Earthlings will pay for."
That needs to be something tangible, that is purchased - not taxpayer subsidy for vicarious 'feel-good' intangibles. I consider myself 'woke' but that is too woke for me.
Helium-3? When something depends on strong commercial demand from an energy technology that doesn't exist that is a red flag, not a green one.
I am not entirely devoid of hopes for humanity gaining substantial ongoing benefits from ambitious government space programs (meteor defense) and from ambitious private space programs (asteroid metals), but what makes moon resources better than pursuing asteroid resources directly?
Asteroids - near Earth asteroids, not Asteroid Belt ones - are much easier to get to and from compared to the moon due to much lower delta-v and very low gravity; we have high confidence they will contain extremely valuable Platinum Group Metals in relative abundance, for which there is currently growing demand. There is abundance of chemical feedstocks for refineries and for making in-space rocket fuels. We are way short of the capabilities required but the resources are there and are high value - genuinely of commercial interest.
I suspect the best moon resources won't be found in regular moon rocks, it will be be found in the meteor craters, ie
they will mine asteroid materials.
Aiming high is fine but aiming shorter at more realistic stepping stones and avoiding extravagant waste is sensible.
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