Yes, we are shifting the climate system inexorably beyond mere similar extremes a bit more often (that were readily deniable) to new, never before level extremes that are not.
More than 3 decades of consistent science based advice is demonstrating climate science has the fundamentals correct and uses tools like modeling that work more than well enough. We will never return to the climate the world had pre-industrial - there is no way to go back or even restore - but we may manage to regain some level of (new) climate stability and avoid the most extreme and dangerous outcomes.