Comet chunks to fly by Earth

[silylene old]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>JPL Has the Earths center of mass passing .00001AU or 930 miles from the "S" fragment orbital plane. The intersection will happen Between June12th through June13th. <br /><p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />I played with the simulator, and the high accuracy ephemeris (which even includes gravitational pertubations of the three largest asteroids). I did not find the collision you are refering to. In fact, the closest pass is May 29.<br /><br />Please explain how you came to your conclusion. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[edawg]

odd timing for a fema/navy tsunami exercise, google it..then get back to me.. where did ya get that toy?"

 

[silylene old]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>odd timing for a fema/navy tsunami exercise, google it..then get back to me.. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Point is? <br /><br />The comet will miss the earth by 10M miles.<br /><br />Oh I get it. It's a secret tsunami-comet-conspiracy theory of government coverup. Yup, that's it. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

In reply to:<br />--------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />JPL Has the Earths center of mass passing .00001AU or 930 miles from the "S" fragment orbital plane. The intersection will happen Between June12th through June13th. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />--------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br /><br /><br />I played with the simulator, and the high accuracy ephemeris (which even includes gravitational pertubations of the three largest asteroids). I did not find the collision you are refering to. In fact, the closest pass is May 29. <br /><br />Please explain how you came to your conclusion. <br /><br /><br />The Earth comes within .00001 AU of the fragment "S" orbital plane. This means the fragment "S" has passed us by but the sub fragments of fragment "S" are still lagging behind and are still in the orbital plane of which the center of the Earth will come within 930 miles. Still not good news.<br />

 

[edawg]

the biggest pices we can see are 3mi in diamter,here is a nice animation.Well at least tthe shuttle will be on pad and FEMAS having a tsunami exercise,any 1 know where i can find fleet deployments?I wanna see something..<br /><br /><br />i just found this on spacewheather.com<br /><br />A weak solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole could hit Earth on or about May 22nd. <br /><br />i aint smart enough to dothe math,but will this effecthe comet?<br /><br />http://shadowandsubstance.com/<br />

 

[silylene old]

I said, I just told you I played with the accurate simulator and never saw any close pass! Intersecting orbital planes isn't the issue, in order for a collision the orbits (not the orbital planes) must intersect *at the same point* and *at the same time*. <br /><br />I will remind you that the intersection of two planes is a straight line, not a point. And you need to consider the <i>time</i> dimension, as I just described above. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

So what is trailing behind the "S" fragment within the orbital plane in which Earths center will pass within 930 miles???

 

[CalliArcale]

Doesn't matter. Remember the time factor; the Earth will be farther away from them than it will be from the first fragment.<br /><br />Intersecting orbits isn't as much of a problem as you might think. Consider that a great many spacecraft in Earth orbit intersect one another's orbits (especially those which must share an altitude, such as the GPS constellation) but they never collide. Intersecting orbits make the chance of a collision non-zero. It does not make it likely.<br /><br />BTW, you want to know why there's a tsunami exercise planned? Simple: because thousands of people were killed in a tsunami very recently and nobody wants a repeat of that. Oceanic earthquakes are not uncommon, since we live on a tectonically active world, so it's only a matter of time before there is another. It's a shame it's taken this long to get ready, but it's probably only to be expected given the logistics of the exercise. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[edawg]

the timing is quite odd..oh well nothing to do but wait and see..

 

[cyclonebuster]

I think it does matter what is trailing behind the "S" fragment the Earth and that object could collide!

 

[kyle_baron]

<i><br />the timing is quite odd..oh well nothing to do but wait and see.. </i><br /><br />I (or anyone else, for that matter) couldn't have said it any better. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font size="4"><strong></strong></font></p> </div>

 

[CalliArcale]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>I think it does matter what is trailing behind the "S" fragment the Earth and that object could collide!<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Anything trailing behind it will be too small to be a problem. Remember, they're observing this stuff with Hubble now. And the risk of a collision is negligible. Trailing bits of S won't have had much time to separate from S. At worst, we might see an increase in meteors. But I'm inclined to doubt even that.<br /><br />I really wouldn't worry too much about anything bad happening during this flyby. You're more likely to win the lottery. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[thepiper]

One bright green fireball seen in many parts of Queensland, Australia, on May 16th was attributed by some astronomers to the comet, according to this ABC News article. <br /><br /><i>edit: hey I'm a comet now! coincidence?!?!</i> <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />

 

[edawg]

dah.aother concidence its the end ot the world..!!! where is thy bong??

 

[qso1]

cyclonebuster:<br />I think it does matter what is trailing behind the "S" fragment the Earth and that object could collide! <br /><br />Me:<br />I wasnt aware this collision scenario was being discussed here too but in the Julien thread, I mentioned the reasons why a collision possibility are nill.<br /><br />May as well mention it here although not in exact way I did in the other thread, maybe this ones a better description.<br /><br />Comet travels parallel to Earth as evidenced by sequential images several days apart.<br /><br />Comet travelling at 40-70 thousand mph, don't know the exact figure.<br /><br />Any piece separating from the comet will be less massive but momentum will cause it to follow the comet essentially.<br /><br />If comet/pieces were heading for a collision with Earth, comet head would brighten but no change in direction would be percieved because it is heading straight for us.<br /><br />For a piece of the comet to be heading for us, something would have to redirect it and overcome the 40-70,000 mph estimated forward velocity to do this. That something would have to have been imaged by Hubble due to its sheer size.<br /><br />NASA has not reported any such entity.<br /><br />Today is May 27th, 2006 and the fact that I'm flappin my yap should be evidence that we have not been hit by anything from this comet.<br /><br />Calli alluded to possible meteors which I agree, but as she also pointed out in essence, even thats a stretch.<br /><br />When could a piece of this comet impact Earth?<br /><br />If or when the orbit of the comet, the comet, and earth intersect. This could happen on some future pass and hopefully, amateur astronomers will know if an impact is immenent. This however, is far less dramatic a scenario than the Julien scenario.<br /><br />And why would I discount Julien, in addition to predicting an impact that clearly would violate any laws of nature I'm aware of on the date predicted. He predicted it based solely on a dream and this same guy implied that Am <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

We must remember that fragment "S" orbital plane intersects Earths orbital plane with within 0.00001 AU. If a fragment has not been detedted here we could be hit.

 

[nexium]

We are at X plus 3 or 4 days. If a fragment killed anyone on Earth's surface, the media is doing the usual coverup. Neil

 

[TheShadow]

OK, round up the usual suspects. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p><font size="1" color="#808080">Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men, the Shadow knows. </font></p> </div>

 

[drwayne]

Bogie at 12 O'clock....<br /><br />Ooops, couldn't resist a Casablanca response...<br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>We are at X plus 3 or 4 days. If a fragment killed anyone on Earth's surface, the media is doing the usual coverup. Neil <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />Since the media did such a good job faking the Apollo landings and covering up 50 years of alien abductions, I would think that hiding a massive comet strike would be a cakewalk. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[robnissen]

In fact, the media has completely covered up the fact that a comet killed JFK. In what is the ultimate irony, the comet was previously named Oswald!?!

 

[silylene old]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>JPL Has the Earths center of mass passing .00001AU or 930 miles from the "S" fragment orbital plane. The intersection will happen Between June12th through June13th. <br /><p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />It's t+7 days, the sun is shining, there are no smoking craters on the horizon, and my city hasn't been swamped by a tsunami.<br /><br />The CIA/UN/KGB/Interpol/Mossad/CNN conspiracy to cover up this event must have been incredibly good.<br /><br />Or just perhaps, NASA, JPL , the major observatories, and all the professional astronomers and were actually correct, and the comet passed harmlessly 10M miles away. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[enigma10]

Actually , it landed in Venezuala, but Chavez Nationalized, confiscated it from some rancher, overtaxed it, then called it a capitalistic pig. That made it completely nerfed, so then he sold it to his rear ranger budy Morales to feed it to the Cocoa gods, whom converted it into a strange white powder , which prompted Morales to give it to some buddies so they could transport it back across Venezuala and ship it to the evil capitalistic pigs up north. This all went on as they both called Bush evil while they rubbed Casto's wrinkly old feet and coo'd him with sweet promises of militarization. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <em>"<font color="#333399">An organism at war with itself is a doomed organism." - Carl Sagan</font></em> </div>

 

[tom_hobbes]

Well, Cyclone and me, we know they hit and the Earth was completely destroyed. So it must be an enigma. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font size="2" color="#339966"> I wish I could remember<br /> But my selective memory<br /> Won't let me</font><font size="2" color="#99cc00"> </font><font size="3" color="#339966"><font size="2">- </font></font><font size="1" color="#339966">Mark Oliver Everett</font></p><p> </p> </div>