COMET FLYBY could the scientists be wrong on this one??

[cyclonebuster]

http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=1826352<br /><br />http://img&%$#@!.hubblesite.org/hu/db/2006/18/images/g/formats/large_web.jpg<br /><br />http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db_shm?sstr=73P-AT<br /><br />May 11th is its closest approach if it were hit by another object we could be in for a bad time here for about a months period after that date. <br />

 

[telfrow]

Why open a duplicate thread? You posted the same thing See here. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <strong><font color="#3366ff">Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yeild.</font> - <font color="#3366ff"><em>Tennyson</em></font></strong> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

I think I high jacked that thread since it was basically for viewing the comet. I raised the question about the chunks actually hitting us. So I started a new thread about those chances.

 

[harmonicaman]

This time around the fragments are expected to pass the Earth at a distance of about 7.4 million miles.<br /><br />In 2022, things may get a little more interesting...

 

[CalliArcale]

Fair enough.<br /><br />Can scientists be wrong? Of course! Are they wrong in this instance? No. The good news is that you don't have to rely on scientists funded by any government, or even on professionals. The comet is observable by amateur telescopes, and the physics is relatively straightforwards -- it's basically a problem in ballistics, which has been very well understood for centuries. The calculations show that the comet will not come very close to Earth at all. (It's kind of a pity, really, because otherwise we could be treated to a very beautiful display as tiny particles in the debris cloud enter the Earth's atmosphere and are consumed. Alas, it will be too far away for that.)<br /><br />You did mention the possibilty of the comet being deflected by something. That's also extremely unlikely. It takes a lot of energy to change the direction of a comet (because they travel very fast), and with the closest approach less than two weeks away, there really isn't enough time for such an event to make much of a difference. What's more, the comet is breaking up; the more it breaks up, the more likely the bits are to be incinerated during entry. I'd say we're safe from Comet 73P. That's not to say we won't get whalloped by something. It just won't be this particular comet. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[telfrow]

Comet Fragments Won't Hit Earth <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <strong><font color="#3366ff">Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yeild.</font> - <font color="#3366ff"><em>Tennyson</em></font></strong> </div>

 

[summoner]

Here's an article from Phil Plait the Bad Astronomer pretty much debunking any hysteria that may occur from this frightful event.<br /><br />link <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> <br /><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:271px;background-color:#FFF;border:1pxsolid#999"><tr><td colspan="2"><div style="height:35px"><img src="http://banners.wunderground.com/weathersticker/htmlSticker1/language/www/US/MT/Three_Forks.gif" alt="" height="35" width="271" style="border:0px" /></div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20060413/pl_usnw/former_military_air_traffic_controller_claims_comet_collision_with_earth_on_may25_2006104_xml<br /><br />This guy may be right if a another object hit it!!

 

[telfrow]

A former air traffic controller....and "if..."<br /><br />That about says it all. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <strong><font color="#3366ff">Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yeild.</font> - <font color="#3366ff"><em>Tennyson</em></font></strong> </div>

 

[harmonicaman]

Here's some psycho-babble from the article:<br /><br /><i>"He argues the "Missing Earth" crop circle was a message from higher intelligences warning humanity of the consequences of its destructive nuclear policies. He links this crop circle to May 25, 2006, and identifies the comet Schwassmann-Wachman as the subject of higher intelligence communications."</i><br /><br />...definitely a loon!

 

[cyclonebuster]

"About" doesn't sound to conclusive to me.

 

[telfrow]

Read: No, fragments of 73P will NOT hit the earth.<br /><br />Snip: <i>At closest approach for spectacularly fragmenting 73P-B, the comet is 0.067 AU, about 26 times the distance from the Earth to the Moon. Now some of those fragments are travelling sideways, but to have any chance of hitting earth, they have to be traveling at around 8 kilometers per second in our direction, and you can see from the images they are drifing much more lazily than that.</i><br /><br />The article also has a Celestia simulation of 73P at time of fragment C's closest approach to Earth. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <strong><font color="#3366ff">Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yeild.</font> - <font color="#3366ff"><em>Tennyson</em></font></strong> </div>

 

[telfrow]

Here's the image: <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <strong><font color="#3366ff">Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yeild.</font> - <font color="#3366ff"><em>Tennyson</em></font></strong> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

What about in the year 2022?

 

[telfrow]

When we pass through the debris cloud? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <strong><font color="#3366ff">Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yeild.</font> - <font color="#3366ff"><em>Tennyson</em></font></strong> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

How do we know a three hundred foot asteroid is not in that debris cloud???

 

[CalliArcale]

Two points:<br /><br />1) The debris cloud is now plenty close enough for observation of such things. Hubble's taking pictures of it even.<br /><br />2) So what if a 300' asteroid is in the debris cloud? It's all going the same direction anyway. It's not going to hit Earth.<br /><br />So I wouldn't lose any sleep over this. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[vogon13]

In the fall of 2014, the planet disolving chaos cloud is going to zorch the earth.<br /><br />Probably won't sweat anything bad that might have happened in 2022.<br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#ff0000"><strong>TPTB went to Dallas and all I got was Plucked !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#339966"><strong>So many people, so few recipes !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#0000ff"><strong>Let's clean up this stinkhole !!</strong></font> </p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

How fast is the debris cloud spreading out??