Comets/Large meteor in 1664 and 1666 London?

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grokme

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I just read <i>A Journal of the Plague Year</i>, a fictional account of the Great Plague of London by Daniel Defoe, the same person who wrote Robinson Crusoe. The book is based in large part on his uncles eyewitness accounts of the city at the time. <br /><br />One thing I found interesting is that he mentions a comet occuring a couple months before the appearance of the plague, which would have been late 1664 or early 1665, depending on when you consider the plague to have started in earnest. Then, just before the London fire in 1666, he talks about what sounds like a large meteor which is explosive and fast. Both of these events supposedly were seen as signs of impending doom by the people of London. <br /><br />I have found some weblinks on comet sitings in 1664 and 1666. There's also mention of Pepys seeing a comet on December 15th 1664. Pepys diary is a very good source since he was one of the founding members of the Royal Astrological Society and he kept a very private and frank account of events in London at that time, thinking that his diary was undecipherable. <br /><br />The 1660's seem to be comet rich, with at least three sightings by French preists as well. Do we know if these comets ever reappeared or are they way out there somewhere waiting to come back around, and we don't know when? If not, is there a way to find them now with modern instruments and calculations based on their location in the 1660s and projections about where they could have gone?
 
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MeteorWayne

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These are the comets of the 1660's from Gary Kronk's Cometography: link <br /><br />AOP= Argument of Perihelion<br />AN= Ascending Node<br />i= Inclination<br />q=perihelion (AU)<br />e= eccentricity<br /><br />C/1661 C1 Edit: (153P, see post below)<br /><br />Closest to the Earth: 1661 January 29 (0.6062 AU) <br />Computer............T .....................AOP........AN (2000.0) ...... i ............q... ....e <br />Halley 1661 Jan. 27.4868 (UT) ....33.552.... 87.169..... 32.596 ....0.448510 1.0 ----- <br />Mechain 1661 Jan. 27.381 (UT) .....33.450.... 86.562..... 33.015 .....0.442722 1.0 -----<br /><br />C/1664 W1<br /><br />Closest to the Earth: 1664 December 29 (0.1699 AU) <br /><br />Halley 1664 Dec. 4.993 (UT)........ 310.664..... 86.022..... 158.691 .....1.025755 1.0 ----- <br />Lindelof 1664 Dec. 4.9834 (UT).... 310.6748.... 86.0525..... 158.6965 .....1.025531 1.0 -----<br /><br />C/1665 F1<br /><br />Closest to the Earth: 1665 April 4 (0.5683 AU) <br /><br />Halley 1665 Apr. 24.719 (UT).... 156.09..... 232.70 ..... 103.89 ..... 0.10649 ...... 1.0 -----<br /><br />C/1668 E1<br /><br />Closest to the Earth: 1668 March 4 (0.8011 AU) <br />.<br />Henderson 1668 Feb. 25.282 (UT)..... 206.680 .... 198.097 ..... 27.077 ....0.251131 1.0 ----- <br />Henderson 1668 Mar. 1.3 (UT)..... ..... 80.26.... 1.92.... 144.08.... .... 0.0048..... 1.0 ----- <br />Kreutz 1668 Feb. 28.080 (UT) .... 109.813 .... 3.215..... 144.381..... 0.066604.... 1.0 -----<br /><br />Since within the measurement errors (and lack of knowledge of cometary orbits) of the day, the "orbits" were parabolas (e=1.0), to my knowledge, none of these have ever been recovered, though I'm still checking. Since the orbits were parabolas, of course they would not return, but all comets of the day were assumed to be parabolas. In actuality they were probably long period <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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deapfreeze

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If anyone is going to have the answer to this question it would definately be Meteor Wayne. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font size="2" color="#0000ff"><em>William ( deapfreeze ) Hooper</em></font></p><p><font size="1">http://deapfreeze-amateur-astronomy.tk/</font></p><p> </p> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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Thanx <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />I did find something out about one of the 1660's comets.<br /><br />C/1661 C1 is 153P/Ikeya-Zhang (Hevelius)<br /> link <br /><br />It has a period of around 365 years.<br /><br />This is from Gary Kronk's Cometography Volume 1 <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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grokme

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Thanks Meteor Wayne. The plague dates are difficult because it had already ravaged the Dutch and had been in England since the 14th century with outbreaks from time to time. <br /><br />This particular outbreak started in December 1664 with a couple of cases in the poor district of London, but then went quiet until February with a few more cases. Then, started in earnest in April with hundreds of cases, and in May it climbed to thousands per week. The unusual heat of the summer seems to have made it go out of control. By July and August it was ravaging complete neighborhoods, in some cases, leaving only a few families alive. 90,000 is the lower end of the estimates. I've heard numbers of up to 200,000. <br /><br />In this book, they are talking of losing 3,000 in the span of a few hours. At the peak of the plague in late September, early October, it suddenly abated and the death tolls started dropping quickly, supposedly due to the cold coming on. I did note however that the author states that a lot of people continued to get sick, but they were no longer dying of it. I wonder if it was a different strain not packing the same punch. They appeared to have bubonic and in some cases the airborne variety, as some would present with symptoms for several days, while others seemed to suddenly present with symptoms as if out of the air in drop dead in a couple of hours. <br /><br />Is this number of comets unusual for a short time span of a decade? Also, the one mentioned in 1666 didn't sound like a comet to me, it sounded like a meteor. Is there any correlations between massive killoffs of species and the appearance of comets and other heavenly bodies? I just wonder if insects such as the rat flea might increase their activity at such a time. I'm going to check out the other plague periods, particularly that of the Black Death in the 14th century, although I'm particularly fascinated by London in the 1660s. <br />
 
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MeteorWayne

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Yes those 4 comets appear to be the only ones observed during the 1660's<br /><br />Just curious, what is the description of the 1666 event?<br />( I know you're interested in the plague, I'm interested in the comets and meteors <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> )<br /><br />For comparison:<br />1600's ...1 (1P Halley)<br />1610's...3<br />1620's...1<br />1630's...1<br />1640's...0<br />1650's...1<br /><font color="orange">1660's...4 </font><br />1670's...3 (including 6P/d'Arrest)<br />1680's...6 (including 1P/Halley)<br />1690's...4 (including 55P/Tempel-Tuttle) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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And just for fun (most older reference from Kronk):<br /><br />860's...2<br />960's...1<br />1060's...1 (1P/ Halley)<br />1160's...0<br />1260's...1<br />1360's...3<br />1460's...2<br />1560's...1<br /><font color="orange">1660's...4 </font><br />1760's...8<br />1860's...27<br />1960's...44 <br /><br />Edit : 2006 ~ 215 <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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grokme

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Here is the description of the 1666 event:<br /><br /><i><br />"the other foretold a stoke, sudden, swift, and fiery as the conflagaration. Nay, so particular some people were, that as they looked upon that comet preceding the fire, they fancied that they not only saw it pass swiftly and fiercely, and could perceive the motion with their eye, but even they heard it; that it made a rushing, mighty noise, fierce and terrible, though at a distance and but just perceivable. <br /></i><br /><br />I would be interested in knowing your interpretation. To me it doesn't sound like a comet, unless it came very close to Earth.
 
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MeteorWayne

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That certainly doesn't sound like a comet. It does sound like a fireball (meteor) large enough to have possibly dropped meteorites to the surface.<br />A comet large and close would have shown up in astronomical records, and for it to have transmitted sound, would have had to be in the atmosphere.<br /><br />The closest known comet approach to the earth is comet Lexall, at about 2.26 million km, about 7 times the distance of the moon in July 1770.<br /><br />Any indication of a date? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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3488

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Hi MeteorWayne.<br /><br />I understand that Comet Lexall was ejected from the Solar System after encountering Jupiter IIRC.<br /> <br />Passing Earth in July 1770, sounds about right,as Comet Lexall passed between Jupiter & the innermost known moon Metis <br />(Comet Lexall nearly plunged into Jupiter itself) in December 1770. <br /><br />Shows how fast Comet Lexall was moving, Earth to Jupiter in only FIVE MONTHS!!!!!<br />It took New Horizons THIRTEEN MONTHS, the fastest man made object to date to make the trip. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />This thread is most interesting. I Quite like looking at accounts of historical observations etc.<br /><br />Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080">"I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before".</font> <em><strong><font color="#000000">Linda Morabito </font></strong><font color="#800000">on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.</font></em></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://www.launchphotography.com/</font><br /><br /><font size="1" color="#000080">http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearth</font></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://web.me.com/meridianijournal</font></p> </div>
 
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grokme

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MeteorWayne,<br /><br />I don't have an exact date except "shortly before the fire of London". So that would be anywhere before Sept 2 1666. I'll look around though. Question: Would a comet that hit the atmosphere have the same characteristics as a meteor, or, due to the chemical makeup could it break up differently? I'm just curious.
 
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3488

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Hi grokme.<br /><br />General wisdom has it that Meteorites are asteroidal, so therefore rocky (silicate) & / metallic, & comets<br />mostly icy.<br /><br />However there is a blurry line between the two.<br /><br />Some asteroids like 1566 Icarus & 3200 Phaethon (the<br />source of the yearly Geminids), may in<br />fact be rocky / metallic core of comets, who's surrounding mantle of ices<br /> have evaporated.<br /><br />Also Deep Impact's results form Comet Tempel 1, also throws a spanner in that scheme<br />of things.<br /><br />Best to ask MeteorWayne about this.<br /><br />The Great Fire of London occured towards the end of a severe drought<br />over southern Britain. The Summer of 1666 was very hot indeed, the driest & hottest of the <br />17th Century (a contributory factor, in the fire's spread, not<br />to mention poor town planning, wooden buildings, built in such close proximity to each other,<br /> so the weather would have<br /> been ideal for spotting something unusual in the night skies.<br /><br />Will try & find out.<br /><br />Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080">"I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before".</font> <em><strong><font color="#000000">Linda Morabito </font></strong><font color="#800000">on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.</font></em></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://www.launchphotography.com/</font><br /><br /><font size="1" color="#000080">http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearth</font></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://web.me.com/meridianijournal</font></p> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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Well, a comet, being larger and friable, would create a spectaular fireball!!<br /><br />Almost all meteors you see are in fact comet dust, but are very small.<br />The larger ones (a few cm) are shattered by the difference in pressure between the front end ramming into the air, and a vaccuum behind, then each particle becomes it's own meteor, creating a bright flash as they all burn up. We call this a "terminal flare" where the end (or part of) of the meteor's track across the sky is much brighter than the rest.<br /><br />Fireballs that drop meteorites (and create daytime fireballs) on the other hand are usually pieces of asteroids, denser (rock and/or nickel-Iron) and approching at slower speeds. This lower speed that reduces the pressure difference, and higher strength allows them to penetrate further into the atmosphere before shattering.<br /><br />Comets are much larger, hundreds of meters to a dozen or so km across, so the amount of kinetic energy would be MUCH larger. They have to be that large to have created the gas (that makes the ion trail) that drags the dust away from the nucleus (making the dust tail). The Coma and tails are what differentiates a comet from an asteroid. Also, comets generally intersect the earth at much higher speeds than asteroids, since the inclination and eccentricity of their orbits are larger leading to higher speeds at 1 AU.<br /><br />Due to the amount of energy involved, from mass, speed, and easier fragmentation, what the exact components are wouldn't make much of a difference in the visual appearence. In the aftermath, the vaporized materials might be a little different. <br /><br />It's probably something you would not want to witness close up <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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And with exqusite timing, see docm's Comet(or Gamma Ray Burst) thread !! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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