Could Earth ever leave our solar system?

[Admin]

Here's how the Earth could theoretically leave the solar system.

Could Earth ever leave our solar system? : Read more

 

[rod]

Interesting. Some items I did not see in the article. 1. Giant impact with Theia 2. Planet-planet scattering events

Concerning exoplanet studies, we know there are many exoplanets today with e 0.50 or larger so very eccentric orbits and some with orbits near 1 AU from their parent stars. I found 162 exoplanets with large eccentric orbits at The Extrasolar Planets Encyclopaedia (exoplanet.eu)

Here is an example. Utilizing a global network of telescopes to update the ephemeris for the highly eccentric planet HD 80606 b and to ensure the efficient scheduling of JWST, https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.14520

My observations. "Table 7. System Parameters for HD 80606" on page 13 shows system properties for the star and HD 80606 b exoplanet. The star is 1.05 Msun, HD 80606 b P = 111.436765 days, a = 0.4603 au, e = 0.93183, planet mass = 4.1641 Mjup. Using these properties I calculate P = 1.1111E+02 days or 111.11 days. Periastron = 3.2221E-02 au or 0.03221 au, apoastron = 8.8838E-01 au or 0.8838 au. We have an orbit that comes as close as 0.03 au to the host star and swings out as far as about 0.89 au a exoplanet near or larger than 4 jupiter masses. The exoplanet.eu site reports radius = 0.921 Rjup, mean density then = 6.6119E+00 g cm^-3.

Another example, HD 142415 b with mass near 1.62 jupiter masses, semi-major axis 1.05 au, e = 0.50, and host star mass = 1.09 solar.

The early proto-earth must survive much catastrophism in the evolutionary models and avoid any planet-planet scattering events during formation as well.

The article does state, "However, as Ceriotti explained, "unlikely" does not mean it's "impossible," and suggested a way it could theoretically be done. "The Earth could be moved away from its orbit through the action of a massive interstellar object, flying through interstellar space and coming into the solar system and passing close to the Earth," he said."

https://www.livescience.com/how-long-galactic-year.html

Discusses the galactic year for the Sun. The Sun completed at least 20 galactic years now since its formation according to meteorite dating method. Surviving close encounters of the third kind is necessary

 

[Unclear Engineer]

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliese_710 :

"Gliese 710 currently is 62.3 light-years (19.1 parsecs) from Earth in the constellation Serpens and has a below naked-eye visual magnitude of 9.69." "New calculations based on Gaia DR3 data confirm previous estimates and further reduce the associated uncertainty: minimum approach distance of 0.052±0.002 pc (10635±500 au), 1.29±0.02 Ma into the future.[18] " "Gliese 710 has the potential to perturb the Oort cloud in the outer Solar System, exerting enough force to send showers of comets into the inner Solar System for millions of years, triggering visibility of about ten naked-eye comets per year,[12] and possibly causing an impact event. " "The effects of such an encounter on the orbit of the Pluto–Charon system (and therefore, on the classical trans-Neptunian belt) are negligible, but Gliese 710 will traverse the outer Oort cloud (inside 100,000 AU or 0.48 pc) and reach the outskirts of the inner Oort cloud (inward of 20,000 AU). "

 

[rod]

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliese_710 :

"Gliese 710 currently is 62.3 light-years (19.1 parsecs) from Earth in the constellation Serpens and has a below naked-eye visual magnitude of 9.69." "New calculations based on Gaia DR3 data confirm previous estimates and further reduce the associated uncertainty: minimum approach distance of 0.052±0.002 pc (10635±500 au), 1.29±0.02 Ma into the future.[18] " "Gliese 710 has the potential to perturb the Oort cloud in the outer Solar System, exerting enough force to send showers of comets into the inner Solar System for millions of years, triggering visibility of about ten naked-eye comets per year,[12] and possibly causing an impact event. " "The effects of such an encounter on the orbit of the Pluto–Charon system (and therefore, on the classical trans-Neptunian belt) are negligible, but Gliese 710 will traverse the outer Oort cloud (inside 100,000 AU or 0.48 pc) and reach the outskirts of the inner Oort cloud (inward of 20,000 AU). "

Good point. There are no astrometric measurements or observations tracing back 20 galactic years or so for our Sun, like some close stars within 20 pc. Using the Oort cloud and passing star interactions during all those galactic years, raises interesting issues for Deep Impact movies during those 20 or more galactic years said to elapse

 

[rod]

Another note about possible interactions that cause ejection or wreak havoc on the Earth and solar system. Rogue exoplanets, a population in the Milky Way that is largely unknown.

Astronomers uncover largest group of rogue planets yet, https://phys.org/news/2021-12-eso-telescopes-uncover-largest-group.html, "Rogue planets are elusive cosmic objects that have masses comparable to those of the planets in our Solar System but do not orbit a star, instead roaming freely on their own. Not many were known until now, but a team of astronomers, using data from several European Southern Observatory (ESO) telescopes and other facilities, have just discovered at least 70 new rogue planets in our galaxy. This is the largest group of rogue planets ever discovered, an important step towards understanding the origins and features of these mysterious galactic nomads."

Reference paper, A rich population of free-floating planets in the Upper Scorpius young stellar association, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-021-01513-x, 22-Dec-2021. "Abstract The nature and origin of free-floating planets (FFPs) are still largely unconstrained because of a lack of large homogeneous samples to enable a statistical analysis of their properties. So far, most FFPs have been discovered using indirect methods; microlensing surveys have proved particularly successful to detect these objects down to a few Earth masses1,2."

 

[Catastrophe]

Rod, that is very interesting as it introduces the idea of free 'floating; exoplanets which (however unlikely) could impact the Solar System. Such would presumably be larger than Ceres, and, quite possibly, larger than Jupiter

Such (again, however unlikely) could impact members of the Solar System, and, possibly cause catastrophes? Not only direct hits, but dangerous orbit changes could occur?

I don't suppose the dinosaurs comprehended, let alone predicted, the Chicxulub event.

And, again, however unlikely, how about rogue stars? Of course, I completely accept, without reservation, that this is the realm of metaphysics.

Cat

 

[Unclear Engineer]

It appears that there are several things that we are sure exist, and some others that we are not sure don't exist, that might pass through our solar system and have a disruptive effect on Earth's orbit. While the media story goes to the extreme of talking about Earth actually "leaving the solar system", there are doomsday scenarios that are much less extreme but still quite deadly. When you look at the balance of factors that keep the Earth's climate in the "life zone" (at least for life like us), it does not seem to take too much perturbation to be a serious threat. Just disrupting our orbit enough to get us significantly closer to the sun on perihelion or significantly farther away on aphelion could devastate civilization, even if it didn't cause human extinction.

One thing I wonder about, as I looked at the Wikipedia info about Gliese 710 approaching us, was how we know that it will not have some sort of trajectory change due to some other star passing close to it on its way to Earth. Maybe even one of those free-floating planets or a brown dwarf star that we don't even know exists at this point.

It really does not require an undetected black hole hitting Earth to get us into a doomsday scenario. But, Hollywood likes to do doomsday with the biggest wow factors possible, these days.