Debris from Chinese rocket crash found in Indonesia and Malaysia

[Admin]

Some pieces of the big Chinese rocket that fell to Earth over the weekend have been found on the ground in Southeast Asia.

Debris from Chinese rocket crash found in Indonesia and Malaysia : Read more

 

[Catastrophe]

The 25-ton (22.5 metric tons) core stage of a Long March 5B rocket crashed back to Earth uncontrolled on Saturday (July 30), slamming into our atmosphere over the Indian Ocean. Much of the booster burned up as it fell, but a significant portion of it — about 20% to 40% by weight, experts have estimated(opens in new tab) — survived the fiery journey.

It is very quiet so far about deaths/damage. Let us hope for the best.

Cat

 

[iconoclastmax]

It is very quiet so far about deaths/damage. Let us hope for the best.

Cat

It's quiet because it was VERY VERY VERY likely there were none. Not even a Cuban cow. And Douglas Adam's Heart of Gold spaceship was nowhere near there . . . . .

 

[Catastrophe]

It's quiet because it was VERY VERY VERY likely there were none.

Someone has to win the lottery. It also depends on how many lottery entries you make.

Also, did you hear about something unexpected hitting the JWST?

Cat

 

[iconoclastmax]

Someone has to win the lottery. It also depends on how many lottery entries you make.

Also, did you hear about something unexpected hitting the JWST?

Cat

No, in this case it is not true that "someone has to win the lottery". Earth has been bombarded by meteor debris for centuries and only one person has been hit. And many trillions of person-days of existence on earth is a LOT of lottery entries. And the "unexpected" Webb hit was just expected to be more rare that it was (expected yearly or more); maybe a fluke, maybe the models are off a bit.

Mod Edit

 

[Catastrophe]

The point is there for all to make up their own minds.

 

[sam85geo]

Isn't the "rule". .... Given enough time and attempts what's probable can and usually does happen". A really fast moving piece of sand just put a rather large, unfixable hole in the JWST. So much for saving the taxpayers' money via low cost bidders, or "Nay! don't worry it's very low probability. P.S.: I buy a weekly lotto ticket....... just in case Lady Luck winks.

 

[Unclear Engineer]

I'm not sure how those probabilities of hitting a person are calculated. This is not one piece coming down. As illustrated in the videos, it breaks apart, and a substantial fraction of the total mass reaches the ground as multiple pieces. It is more like being down-range from a shotgun blast than at rifle shot.

And, hitting a building in an urban area might still result in harm to inhabitants, even if not directly impacted by the space junk itself.

My suspicion is that this has been underestimated by a bit, both because it is easiest to do that, and because the message to support is "don't worry".

Still, it is a low probability risk.

 

[Catastrophe]

I think that it is not only the risk of stuff coming down, but possibly the greater risk of launches hitting ever increasing debris (or radio/tv satellites) already up there.

Cat

 

[Unclear Engineer]

I think the larger parts of the debris are tracked pretty carefully, not to mention the active satellite paths. So, a launch can be calculated to miss (or be missed by) the things we track.

On the other hand, once a launch vehicle is well clear of the atmosphere (where debris density is extremely low because it can't stay there for even one orbit), the small pieces of junk that are not tracked, or even trackable, might do damage to something like a heat shield surface, which might cause a catastrophic failure during reentry.

This problem is only going to get worse as more and more counties launch their own space vehicles, often on small budgets and with limited capabilities for things like engine restarts while in orbit (where there is no "bottom" in a tank and ignition may be an issue).

And any sort of a war that involves disabling adversaries' satellites could jack this risk into the unacceptable range for manned flights.

Some international rules might help, but we have all seen how effective the U.N. isn't at making countries behave ethically.