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Question Does anyone think we SpaceX (Elon Musk) can land the first people on mars by 2024?

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Will it land?

  • Yes

    Votes: 21 42.0%
  • No

    Votes: 21 42.0%
  • It'll maybe land, i dont know.

    Votes: 9 18.0%

  • Total voters
May 11, 2021
two things come to mind when considering a manned landing on Mars 1) the distance 2) the atmosphere. the distance part can probably be worked out since astronauts are now spending months on the ISS, still though if there were a problem they could return to Earth quickly since the ISS is in relatively low orbit- Mars on the other hand is 6-9 months away. Although physics is not one of my strong points , I would think having to go though Mar's atmosphere would be alot more difficult than landing on the Moon with no atmosphere to contend with.
One thing comes to my mind concerning a crewed Mars landing, the vast quantity of propellants required. Roughly 90% of the lift off mass is propellant and perhaps less than 5% is actual payload. And most of that "payload" is in fact more propellent for launching the ship from Low Earth Orbit to Mars. So in one way the atmosphere of Mars is actually quite handy in that you don't need to bring yet more propellant to land on Mars. Not to say it will be easy it won't, but it is just about manageable. On the Moon this is not possible so even more propellant has to be used to land.

Will humans be walking on Mars by 2024? IMO no its too soon and there's too much still to do. Perhaps only a very slim outside chance of a robotic Starship landing in 2024 followed by a crew in 2026. Much more likely would be a crew landing on Mars in the 2028 - 2033 time frame. I find people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in a year but under estimate what can be achieved in a decade.
Oct 23, 2020
I support more uncrewed missions like the Perseverance rover mission or Chinese mission Zhurong Mars rover
I`d like to mention ‘Rosalind Franklin’ mission. This mission will attempt to search for life on Mars. The launch is scheduled for 2022. Interesting fact, that this is the first Mars mission by British aerospace companies. Looking forward to this mission and I hope it will open some new things for us. https://www.skyrora.com/blog/uk-space-news