Equation to Find intelligent life

[SlashTheWarrior]

Heyo,
(not sure if this is the right place to post this)
Was looking for place to get feedback on this, so maybe this will work. I wrote an equation today after doing a tiny bit of research over intelligent life and inhabitable planets. I want feedback on if this equation works in a way or if it is false and shouldn't be used.


ELP ÷ PLS x SNS ÷ EIR= PIS

ELP is Earth Like Planets
PLS is Planets inhabited (Planets with livable Species) (what I'm going to use is 1/1000)
SNS is Species Needed to Survive (food and communication reasons)
EIR is Earth Intelligence rate
PIS is Possible Intelligent Species

So what I came up with is:
40,000,000,000 ÷ 1000 x 5 ÷ 8,700,000 = 22.98

Meaning there are (more or less) 23 intelligent species in the universe, and due to how many of those that could be advanced enough to use or understand space travel, is possibly 1 out of 23, maybe 2 or 3 out of 23, and the reason why we haven't discovered them yet.

Any feedback on my equation would be amazing, thank you for reading.

 

[Wizardofmann]

I am no mathematician but logic defies me to understand how you arrived at 1/1000?

I think you need to do an awful lot more research before 'making' up your equation and how you arrived at: 40,000,000,000

There are oodles and oodles of un-knowns, just in our own universe, never mind how many more universe's there are out there? 1/100,000,000,000.......may not be anywhere close enough! And if you are referring just to our universe, then even the later figure I plucked out of the air may be pie in the sky: or perhaps in this instance, pie in the universe may be more appropriate?

 

[sam85geo]

Personal opinion: Your equation is as good/appropriate/accurate as any other equation because without hard, testable evidence no one knows; it's reasoned speculation. Note: By hard, testable evidence I mean a living or dead body, a piece of demonstrably extraterrestrial hardware, a life form in a returned space probe sample which would fit the 3 domains of life and/or sub-classifications.

 

[Jim DeMaio]

Heyo,
(not sure if this is the right place to post this)
Was looking for place to get feedback on this, so maybe this will work. I wrote an equation today after doing a tiny bit of research over intelligent life and inhabitable planets. I want feedback on if this equation works in a way or if it is false and shouldn't be used.


ELP ÷ PLS x SNS ÷ EIR= PIS

ELP is Earth Like Planets
PLS is Planets inhabited (Planets with livable Species) (what I'm going to use is 1/1000)
SNS is Species Needed to Survive (food and communication reasons)
EIR is Earth Intelligence rate
PIS is Possible Intelligent Species

So what I came up with is:
40,000,000,000 ÷ 1000 x 5 ÷ 8,700,000 = 22.98

Meaning there are (more or less) 23 intelligent species in the universe, and due to how many of those that could be advanced enough to use or understand space travel, is possibly 1 out of 23, maybe 2 or 3 out of 23, and the reason why we haven't discovered them yet.

Any feedback on my equation would be amazing, thank you for reading.

I think your equation is helpful. I believe this year will be a breakthrough with an ET arriving on earth permanently

 

[SlashTheWarrior]

I am no mathematician but logic defies me to understand how you arrived at 1/1000?

I think you need to do an awful lot more research before 'making' up your equation and how you arrived at: 40,000,000,000

There are oodles and oodles of un-knowns, just in our own universe, never mind how many more universe's there are out there? 1/100,000,000,000.......may not be anywhere close enough! And if you are referring just to our universe, then even the later figure I plucked out of the air may be pie in the sky: or perhaps in this instance, pie in the universe may be more appropriate?

the 40 billion is based off research I found from 2013 saying there is 40 billion earth like planets in our solar system, the 1 out of a thousand is purely an estimate.

I think your equation is helpful. I believe this year will be a breakthrough with an ET arriving on earth permanently

I know right, the aliens will take over 2021

 

[Jim DeMaio]

the 40 billion is based off research I found from 2013 saying there is 40 billion earth like planets in our solar system, the 1 out of a thousand is purely an estimate.

I know right, the aliens will take over 2021

No not take over. Just be present and ready to join our world with much to offer.

 

[voidpotentialenergy]

PLM = Earthlike planet with large moon that doesn't destroy earth like planet.
Maybe 1 million-1 billion?
Will need a big moon or be a big moon orbiting a big planet to have any hope for intelligent life.

Better to rework math for large moons of large planets in life zone of just stars similar to ours and not in a central part of galaxy (super nova country).

ET=1 US
Or ET lives on a moon around a big planet in the arms of the galaxy.

We need just the right amount of metal or no magnetic core, we need just the right amount of silicon or plate activity doesn't work, we need just the right amount of water so it isn't a water world but mostly water with land.

Then the question of life on them, and the ability to get past the bottlenecks.
Long long look for a place that ticks all the boxes.

JMO

 

[sam85geo]

If I were E.T., I would avoid Earth as a bigamist his ex-wives. Consider that if there are any extraterrestrials, they know more about humanity, than humanity knows about itself; otherwise, they would already be here.

 

[voidpotentialenergy]

If I were E.T., I would avoid Earth as a bigamist his ex-wives. Consider that if there are any extraterrestrials, they know more about humanity, than humanity knows about itself; otherwise, they would already be here.

We probably are ET's since life started on Earth pretty much as soon as it was possible for life to exist.

We probably began as bacteria of Venus or Mars and lucky invaded Earth before they both turned to crud.

 

[Catastrophe]

In my opinion, such equations are a total waste of space. Most, if not all, the factors are the subject of pure imagination or sheer guesswork.

Try guessing the number of species with seven legs which will arise on Titan in 5 billion years time. Your guess will probably be better than on this question.

Cat

 

[voidpotentialenergy]

In my opinion, such equations are a total waste of space. Most, if not all, the factors are the subject of pure imagination or sheer guesswork.

Try guessing the number of species with seven legs which will arise on Titan in 5 billion years time. Your guess will probably be better than on this question.

Cat

Titan is really an interesting place.
4 billion years of lakes of alien goo.
Mighty cold for life as we understand but a mighty long time for something to try.

 

[Catastrophe]

VPE I had in mind when solar expansion will put Titan (and other gas giant moons) in the Goldilocks zone - about 5 billion years iirc.

Cat

 

[voidpotentialenergy]

VPE I had in mind when solar expansion will put Titan (and other gas giant moons) in the Goldilocks zone - about 5 billion years iirc.

Cat

Maybe titan is already in the goldilocks zone, just not for us
Maybe we are the freaks and life take advantage of places like titan and other ocean world moons frozen solid above.

 

[Trevize62]

Heyo,
(not sure if this is the right place to post this)
Was looking for place to get feedback on this, so maybe this will work. I wrote an equation today after doing a tiny bit of research over intelligent life and inhabitable planets. I want feedback on if this equation works in a way or if it is false and shouldn't be used.


ELP ÷ PLS x SNS ÷ EIR= PIS

ELP is Earth Like Planets
PLS is Planets inhabited (Planets with livable Species) (what I'm going to use is 1/1000)
SNS is Species Needed to Survive (food and communication reasons)
EIR is Earth Intelligence rate
PIS is Possible Intelligent Species

So what I came up with is:
40,000,000,000 ÷ 1000 x 5 ÷ 8,700,000 = 22.98

Meaning there are (more or less) 23 intelligent species in the universe, and due to how many of those that could be advanced enough to use or understand space travel, is possibly 1 out of 23, maybe 2 or 3 out of 23, and the reason why we haven't discovered them yet.

Any feedback on my equation would be amazing, thank you for reading.

This is consisting to the result of applying the Occam's razor to the Fermi's Paradox: the simplest explanation is that life is common in the universe, but intelligent species are very rare. This is also what we can expect from the randomness of the biological evolution. So, considering that these results the visible universe has a radius of 42 billions light years, there is practically no possibility for us of discovering other sentient lifeforms.

 

[Catastrophe]

SlashTheWarrior
Would you not agree that the factors in your equation are pure guesswork or assumption?

Cat

 

[voidpotentialenergy]

This is consisting to the result of applying the Occam's razor to the Fermi's Paradox: the simplest explanation is that life is common in the universe, but intelligent species are very rare. This is also what we can expect from the randomness of the biological evolution. So, considering that these results the visible universe has a radius of 42 billions light years, there is practically no possibility for us of discovering other sentient lifeforms.

Bottom line is we just don't know.
The math is pretty tiny for planets to have advanced life in the galaxy when we remove all the places that long term life wont endure.
Then the remaining right places need everything to be just right and lots of freak events or they are dino planets or bacteria planets.
We probably alone in our galaxy and maybe many more somewhat near us.

Life is probably a random crapshoot of chemical reactions so i suspect it will be lots of places.
Advanced life far far fewer, and tech intelligent life very very rare and probably short lived to make it even more difficult.

JMO

 

[Trevize62]

Bottom line is we just don't know.
The math is pretty tiny for planets to have advanced life in the galaxy when we remove all the places that long term life wont endure.
Then the remaining right places need everything to be just right and lots of freak events or they are dino planets or bacteria planets.
We probably alone in our galaxy and maybe many more somewhat near us.

Life is probably a random crapshoot of chemical reactions so i suspect it will be lots of places.
Advanced life far far fewer, and tech intelligent life very very rare and probably short lived to make it even more difficult.

JMO

This is exactly what I mean. There is a very strong probability that we are practically alone.

 

[IG2007]

There is a very strong probability that we are practically alone.

We are not. And that's a big NO from me if anyone says we are alone. There are proofs that there was life in Mars and Venus too some billion years ago. Now, if our solar system only has three planets which have supported life, then I wonder how many planets in the universe support life.

 

[Trevize62]

We are not. And that's a big NO from me if anyone says we are alone. There are proofs that there was life in Mars and Venus too some billion years ago. Now, if our solar system only has three planets which have supported life, then I wonder how many planets in the universe support life.

I think you have misunderstood my conclusion, that was not referring to the existence of extraterrestrial life, that instead we would expect to be very common also in our galaxy, given the extremely high numbers of Earth-like planet estimated, but to the practical impossibility to contact another technological civilization, not only because intelligent life is to be considered very rare, for the reasons I have discussed in other posts, but also because of the prohibitive distance between us and the nearest alien civilization, that would be measured in many thousand light years.
Simply, they would be too far to make a useful communication possible, and we must also consider that not all intelligent species may be able to develop a technology.
So, I intend our likely loneliness not in absolute, but in practical terms.

 

[Catastrophe]

Title of this thread: Equation to Find intelligent life

I challenge anyone to argue with this:
In my opinion, such equations are a total waste of space. Most, if not all, the factors are the subject of pure imagination or sheer guesswork.

Any one factor is enough to render any "result" invalid.

That is it guys. Say no more.

Cat

 

[Trevize62]

Title of this thread: Equation to Find intelligent life

I challenge anyone to argue with this:
In my opinion, such equations are a total waste of space. Most, if not all, the factors are the subject of pure imagination or sheer guesswork.

Any one factor is enough to render any "result" invalid.

That is it guys. Say no more.

Cat

Absolutely right. In fact, the conclusion that I and many other think as the most likely, that is that life may be common in the universe but intelligent lifeforms would be considered very rare is not supported by a mathematical equation, but comes from the application to the problem of logical instruments (Fermi's paradox and Occam's razor) and from the discrepance between the objective presence of many Earth-like exoplanets (that have been effectively detected) and the persistent failure in detecting signs of what we call inteligent life out of Earth.
I suppose that the mathematical "equations" giving similar results stand also on these arguments much more than on arbitrary numbers.

 

[IG2007]

Title of this thread: Equation to Find intelligent life

I challenge anyone to argue with this:
In my opinion, such equations are a total waste of space. Most, if not all, the factors are the subject of pure imagination or sheer guesswork.

Any one factor is enough to render any "result" invalid.

That is it guys. Say no more.

Cat

That's something that's unbreakable by logic and I perfectly agree with you.

 

[StargazerUSA]

Dear Frank,
They didn't mean to dismiss your famous "Drake Equation!"

Per ardua ad astra,
Carl

 

[Catastrophe]

This is the question to be answered:

'In my opinion, such equations are a total waste of space. Most, if not all, the factors are the subject of pure imagination or sheer guesswork.
Any one factor is enough to render any "result" invalid. '

Cat

 

[voidpotentialenergy]

This is the question to be answered:

'In my opinion, such equations are a total waste of space. Most, if not all, the factors are the subject of pure imagination or sheer guesswork.
Any one factor is enough to render any "result" invalid. '

Cat

Totally agree, until we have some respectable guess on how often life happens # of places it could happen is a mute point.
If life is so rare a happening that earth is it in our galaxy then any life let alone intelligent life might be extremely rare.
We as somewhat intelligent life should take that to heart and set about our destiny in the universe, or blow ourselves up.
One of either.