Exoplanet Astronomy in 50 years ?

[toymaker]

How do you think it will be developed ? What do you believe will be achieved within the next 50 years ? How many planets and within what range will we know and what will we know ?

 

[summoner]

I would think that if TPF(Terrestrial Planet Finder) comes online around 2012 as expected, then in another 50 years we would know fairly conclusively if there is other life. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> <br /><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:271px;background-color:#FFF;border:1pxsolid#999"><tr><td colspan="2"><div style="height:35px"><img src="http://banners.wunderground.com/weathersticker/htmlSticker1/language/www/US/MT/Three_Forks.gif" alt="" height="35" width="271" style="border:0px" /></div>

 

[bonzelite]

<font color="yellow"><br />I would think that if TPF(Terrestrial Planet Finder) comes online around 2012 as expected, then in another 50 years we would know fairly conclusively if there is other life.</font><br /><br />nope.

 

[yevaud]

If - and only if - funding remains through the next 50 years, I would hope we'd at least have some advances in remote sensing, optics, space technology, so that a long baseline space telescope array could be launched. Something with a few hundreds of thousands of miles between the platforms would be nice.<br /><br />So we might possibly be able to image planets the size of the Earth at some distance. We'll see. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Differential Diagnosis:  </em>"<strong><em>I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are</em></strong>."<br /> </p> </div>

 

[formulaterp]

<font color="yellow">nope.</font><br /><br />Well that was very useful. Care to expound on that?

 

[thalion]

What we know in 50 years depends a lot on what we can get off the ground in the next ten, IMO. I'll be (very) optimistic and assume that Kepler, SIM, and TPF (or their ESA equivalents) get off the ground in the next decade or so, and that it goes uphill from there.<br /><br />In 50 years we'll probably know of thousands--even tens of thousands--of planets in all size ranges. I think terrestrial planets will always be difficult to find and study, but we'll have plenty of those in pocket nonetheless. I wouldn't be surprised if we're able to pick out large moons around some exoplanet giants, either through timing or transit observations. Finally, I think we'll discover at least a few planets in the Large Magellanic Cloud; with super-telescopes of the future like the OWL and other interfermeters, I don't even think planets in M 31 or M 33 are out of the question at the tail end of the period.<br /><br />I also think that in 50 years, the following questions will be largely answered:<br /><br />1.) What is the metallicity "cut-off" for giant and terrestrial planet formation? Is there any at all?<br /><br />2.) Can stars significantly more massive than the Sun (say 2 solar masses and up) form planets? <br /><br />3.) Are planets as common around M-dwarfs as around sunlike stars?<br /><br />4.) How common are Earthlike planets? Mind you, by this definition, I mean planets that are roughly Earth-mass, in their planets habitable zone, and that have spectral signatures of oxygen, methane, or water vapor--singly or altogether.<br /><br />5.) Based on what we know about terrestrial exoplanets in the solar neighborhood, just how "special" is our own planet?

 

[bonzelite]

<font color="yellow"><br />I would think that if TPF(Terrestrial Planet Finder) comes online around 2012 as expected, then in another 50 years we would know fairly conclusively if there is other life. </font><br /><br />why would the coming online of the TPF enable us to know fairly conclusively in 50 years of extraterrestrial life? biosignatures are not conclusive evidence for ET. highly suggestive, but not conclusive. i think even stevehw33 would be proud of me on this one. <br /><br />what it may find conclusively is possible conditions for life. finding ET is an entirely other matter. already there are possible conditions for life on Mars, Titan, Europa, maybe even in the atmospheres of the gas planets, maybe Enceladus. but is ET there? i doubt the TPF will be able to ascertain that on an extrasolar planet using only spectral data. <br /><br />if it does, somehow, then that's a bonus. that'd be cool if i were wrong. i think we all want to find ET.

 

[qso1]

This is a field of science that I hope will capture public imagination if a world similar to Earth is detected.<br /><br />Now by similar, I suspect astronomers are looking for something between and Earth an Mars like world. I consider Mars to be the closest we have to an Earthlike world. Venus could be considered that as well but its environmental conditions are far too harsh to really categorize it as an "E" world if you will if one goes by the definition I understand. A world that has water, oxygen, methane, ozone...some form of life on it although we would likely not be able to conclude life exists on an "E" world without going there.<br /><br />Mars may yet prove to have living or fossilized microbiological organisms. Venus would likely be lifeless but there is the off chance it has extremophiles.<br /><br />Despite such programs as TPF. Ground based astronomy may be able to make significant contributions in this search as well.<br /><br />So by definition, an "E" world, one eminating spectral signatures that indicate life may be present, one that is somewhere between Earth and Mars environmental conditions...Sheer speculation but I suspect the number will turn our very small for "E" worlds within say 100 Ly.<br /><br />This will of course, have implications for SETI in that most of the "E" worlds probably will not have advanced intelligences that we could communicate with. Human Level Intelligence (HLI) as I call it. <br /><br />If we saw just 2 within 100 Ly, they could be considered quite common within our galaxy.<br /><br />Actually imaging such worlds is likely going to confine our search to within our galaxy and probably within a relatively small portion of it at that.<br /><br />We may be reaching the limits of optical physics in this area of research. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[qso1]

I'm curious:<br /><br />How do you know we are absolutely alone on this so called chance planet? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[savagehenry]

Alone!<br /><br />With all those stars out there?!?!<br /><br />Inconcievable!<br /><br />LoL...<br /><br /><br />There is no end to the galaxies....They keep going and going and going and going...Then when we think we have seen the end...we spot more specs everywhere which are of course more galaxies and galaxies..<br /><br />It is infinate insanity!<br /><br />Eventually though...We will understand that we were missing this piece...or that piece..and put more of the puzzle together...tossing this theory or that as we find out that our feverant belief in something that works on paper...or to encourage our original breakthrough moment to stretch out further then it should. Hence nothing fits right when we look at it as a whole today. Say what you want, but thats the truth. <br /><br />Perhaps even stop wasting what time and resources we have on the stupid things we waste it on and we can actually make some real progress in areas that count.<br /><br />I for one would much rather my tax dollars go to all sorts of science research then send it to the Pentagon which just happens to LOSE 2.8 Trillion dollars like it aint no thing!

 

[summoner]

The reason I said fairly conclusivly is because of spectral signatures that are going to show that probably biology is at work.<br /><br /><font color="yellow">Only biogenic processes produce large atmospheric quantities of free oxygen.</font><br /><br />Link <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> <br /><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:271px;background-color:#FFF;border:1pxsolid#999"><tr><td colspan="2"><div style="height:35px"><img src="http://banners.wunderground.com/weathersticker/htmlSticker1/language/www/US/MT/Three_Forks.gif" alt="" height="35" width="271" style="border:0px" /></div>

 

[savagehenry]

Thats fine and dandy...However its done its done...<br /><br />We have found what 150 out of googolplex...<br /><br />Lets get to work!

 

[qso1]

I added this image I did to illustrate what it may be<br />like when the news organizations announce the discovery of an "E" world as I call them.<br /><br />This one is a hypothetical world orbiting<br />Alpha Centauri "A". Imaged by a hypothetical<br />telescope I call the Brunoscope! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[toymaker]

''Only biogenic processes produce large atmospheric quantities of free oxygen. ''<br />I don't think its definitive I recall seeing some theories on super oceanic planets(IIRC) that perhaps could have oxygen as a result of geological and atmospheric reaction rather then life.

 

[bonzelite]

<font color="yellow"><br />The reason I said fairly conclusivly is because of spectral signatures that are going to show that probably biology is at work. <br /><br />Only biogenic processes produce large atmospheric quantities of free oxygen. <br /><br /></font><br /><br />that is not necessarily true. change probably to "maybe," and i agree w/you.

 

[Philotas]

<font color="yellow">Finally, I think we'll discover at least a few planets in the Large Magellanic Cloud; with super-telescopes of the future like the OWL and other interfermeters, I don't even think planets in M 31 or M 33 are out of the question at the tail end of the period. </font><br /><br />If funded, the OWL could start a revolution. I imagine NASA will come up with a strong counterpart, so if OWLs not funded, we probably have something equally anyway. <br /><br />--<br />Back on topic, Exoplanet Astronomy in 50 years would be completely irrecognizable(at least I hope so!), so discussing it won`t bring up much new, luckily. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[CalliArcale]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p><font color="yellow">nope.</font><br /><br />Well that was very useful. Care to expound on that?<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />He's right. It's unreasonable to expect TPF to definitely produce proof of life (if it exists) on other worlds. It just won't have that kind of resolution. Heck, there are still debates about life on Mars, and it's practically next door! Only if we're really really really lucky and life on another planet screams it's existence at least as loudly as life on Earth does (ideally louder) will TPF detect it, and even then I expect there will be significant doubt. There's really only so much you can glean from observations at that distance.<br /><br />Just look at the continuing debates on whether or not there's life on Titan. That's much easier to study than an exoplanet. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[priusguy]

I would not make predictions for 50 years, but I would say that barring a civilization-destroying disaster, in 100 years astronomers will have catalogued every star, brown dwarf, and Jupiter-size planet in the Milky Way.