Get ready: The Starships are coming

Apr 17, 2023
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I am not hoping for any other aerospace company to fail but it would seem like expecting another rocket to magically work perfectly on it's 1st launch, seems to be delusional thinking. Considering BO has never put a single Kg into orbit, it really is kind of crazy thinking. They don't even know what they don't know yet. Every month they delay flying test flights only is putting them further behind by years if not decades. It is the old story of the tortuous and the hare.

Yes you can point to the SLS and say it worked perfectly the 1st time. Also consider it was almost based all on Shuttle tech that flew over 100 times. Considering it is a throw away rocket, how much did it really push forward with new tech? When you consider the costs, yes it worked but this isn't a path forward beyond maybe 1 flight per year. It isn't powerful enough to put Orion into Lunar Orbit. Not sure what anyone was thinking besides creating jobs for key congressional districts.

The SX Starship system once operational will be a huge game changer. Getting 100+ tons to the Moon or Mars requires orbital refueling. This is just basic physics. NOT an optional choice that can somehow be ignored just because you don't want to hear it. People are complaining that the SX lunar lander is too complex and would require too many flights. You're debating physics and not accepting reality.

Apollo was awesome, but it was a small weekend camper to the surface. Take a few selfies, plant a flag and grab a few rocks. There was no way to build more off of that tech. You couldn't build a Moon base with that limited tech. It was the real problem NASA faced in 1972. Why make the same mistake again in 2024? You're going to need to place hundreds of tons of equipment on the moon, to build a moon base. That will also require lots of low tech things like food, fuel and water. Not exactly ideal things to put on a $3 billion rocket that you'll throw away after every launch, that is some expensive toilet water.

The great space powers in 25-50 years will be the nations who can build fuel stations on the moon. Water at the South pole will be critical. Be the 1st one there and it is you're to claim, like it or not. We'll be able to get much more fuel off of the surface of the moon in less flights than trying to fly it up from Earth.
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I agree that SpaceX is developing the logical engineering designs for creating an actual long-term habitat on the Moon.

I am not so sure that moon habitats will eventually become rocket propellant manufacturing sites. It will depend on how much water is actually on the Moon and how easily it can be extracted from wherever it is, there. So, I would not be making any commercial bets on that, with what we currently know.

But, the Moon bases will definitely have scientific tasks, particularly astronomy and maybe some physics experiments. I doubt it will have much strategic military value for conflicts on Earth, due to its distance and its limited periods of view for specific locations on Earth.

I doubt it will become a tourist mecca or a colony for people who just want to get off Earth for "a better place to live".

But, who really knows the future? Some major breakthrough in our understanding of physics and/or the universe might have benefits we cannot predict, today. But, we really can't count on that. We have to plan and design on the basis of what we know today about what is possible with what we currently understand.