Here's something you don't want to see in a SOHO image. :)

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michaelmozina

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<p>http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2009/02/13/behind_20090213_euvi_195_512.mpg</p><p>It looks like the STEREO behind satellite witnessed a CME event from a new active region that was directed towards the satellite.&nbsp; Maybe it was a little past center when it blew.&nbsp; Fortunately it's not aimed directly at us. :) </p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>
 
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michaelmozina

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I'd say this is the first active region I've seen in awhile that looked like it was capable of forming sunspots.&nbsp;&nbsp; It's also near the equator which tends to be something we see during the active phases.&nbsp;&nbsp; It's only one active region, but it does look, well "active", forf the first time in quite awhile. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>
 
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derekmcd

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Was the flash ~1605 a result of the CME? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div> </div><br /><div><span style="color:#0000ff" class="Apple-style-span">"If something's hard to do, then it's not worth doing." - Homer Simpson</span></div> </div>
 
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michaelmozina

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Was the flash ~1605 a result of the CME? <br /> Posted by derekmcd</DIV></p><p>I'm not quite sure what "flash' you're refering to at 1605.&nbsp; That image is for the 13th (maybe you meant the 12th), and that CME event took place about 05:35.&nbsp; I'll go back and check the 12th since there was another such event (according to the x-ray data) in the evening of the 12th.&nbsp; I'm almost positive (without looking at the images) that the pulse came from the same active region.&nbsp; It's the only one I can see that could generate that kind of pulse in either of the 2 STEREO images and between the two of them they can observe almost the entire suface now. </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>
 
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michaelmozina

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<p>http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2009/02/12/behind_20090212_euvi_195_512.mpg</p><p>I did go back and look, and yes, this is the same active region that was responsible for the CME event around 1605 on the 12th as well.&nbsp; It's rather active compared to any of the recent ones I've seen.&nbsp; IMO it's probably "hot" enough to sustain a longer term sunspot as well.&nbsp; We'll have to see.&nbsp; It's been so quiet, and I've seen so made fade away after a couple of days, it's hard to know exactly what's going to happen.&nbsp; On the other hand, this particular active region has produced two relatively powerful events in the past 3 days.&nbsp; If you're looking for signs of a return to an active solar cycle, this is the best I've seen in awhile.&nbsp; </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2009/02/13/behind_20090213_euvi_195_512.mpgIt looks like the STEREO behind satellite witnessed a CME event from a new active region that was directed towards the satellite.&nbsp; Maybe it was a little past center when it blew.&nbsp; Fortunately it's not aimed directly at us. :) &nbsp; <br />Posted by michaelmozina</DIV><br /><br />This link won't open for me :( <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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michaelmozina

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<p>http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2009/02/14/behind_20090214_euvi_195_512.mpg</p><p>If you checkout the 195A Behind images for the 14th, you can see that the small active region almost directly to the left of the more active region, along with the active region itself, both put out small discharges on the 14th (not nearly the scale of the previous two days mind you).&nbsp; More importantly however, another active region in the lower atmosphere has formed and it seems to span a large area already.&nbsp; IMO that's an encouraging sign.&nbsp; We may see some sunspot activity this time around.&nbsp; Do you happen to know when SOHO comes out of bakeout Wayne? </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>
 
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michaelmozina

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Ooops, nevermind the backout question Wayne, I see it's now returning iron ion wavelength images again.&nbsp; The last SOHO images show that the southern active area is growing too.&nbsp; I'm not sure it either of them will result in a sunspot, but the one near the equator looks promising. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Ooops, nevermind the backout question Wayne, I see it's now returning iron ion wavelength images again.&nbsp; The last SOHO images show that the southern active area is growing too.&nbsp; I'm not sure it either of them will result in a sunspot, but the one near the equator looks promising. <br />Posted by michaelmozina</DIV><br /><br />Hmm, something wrong with my pooter. Seems I can't open mpg files by directly clicking on them; probably some security setting I've changed. I can save and play them though.</p><p>BTW the "Behind" image appears to be the front side of the sun; if you look at the SOHO images they appear to match pretty closely.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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Smersh

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2009/02/13/behind_20090213_euvi_195_512.mpgIt looks like the STEREO behind satellite witnessed a CME event from a new active region that was directed towards the satellite.&nbsp; Maybe it was a little past center when it blew.&nbsp; Fortunately it's not aimed directly at us. :) &nbsp; <br /> Posted by michaelmozina</DIV></p><p>This CME observed by stereo <em>was</em> either heading in our direction, or towards the behind spacecraft:&nbsp;</p><p><strong>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2pvqYClG2Y&nbsp;</strong></p><p><strong>http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/news/Quadrature.shtml</strong>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <h1 style="margin:0pt;font-size:12px">----------------------------------------------------- </h1><p><font color="#800000"><em>Lady Nancy Astor: "Winston, if you were my husband, I'd poison your tea."<br />Churchill: "Nancy, if you were my wife, I'd drink it."</em></font></p><p><font color="#0000ff"><strong>Website / forums </strong></font></p> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>This CME observed by stereo was either heading in our direction, or towards the behind spacecraft:&nbsp;http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2pvqYClG2Yhttp://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/news/Quadrature.shtml <br />Posted by Smersh</DIV><br /><br />The Stero spacecraft are at quadratue; i'e they are 90 degrees apart in the orbit. Based on today's SOHO images, they are to the left and the right of our position facing the sun. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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michaelmozina

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>This CME observed by stereo was either heading in our direction, or towards the behind spacecraft:&nbsp;http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2pvqYClG2Yhttp://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/news/Quadrature.shtml <br /> Posted by Smersh</DIV></p><p>The events we've seen since the 12th have got me thinking a lot about CME prediction.&nbsp; It does not seem to be the case that sunspot activity is particularly useful for CME prediction.&nbsp; It seems as though all CME's tend to originate from one of the active areas that can be seen in the iron ion wavelengths (171, 195, 284A). &nbsp; As a general rule of thumb, the more active the region, the more likely it is to produce a CME and/or a sunspot, but that certainly is not always the case.&nbsp; On the 14th for instance, a smaller area, pretty much directly to the left of primary active region also triggered a "small" flare-like event, pretty much the same size as the one the came from the primary active area a few hours later.&nbsp; On the other hand, both of the "bigger" CME events this week came from the primary active region, and that side of the sun did in fact "light up" this week in the 195A image, with several new "hot spots" of activity.&nbsp;</p><p>I find myself constantly checking the geos x-ray flux monitor in the morning when I wake up, and then watching the SOHO 195A images to see where the flare occured when I've find something in the x-ray flux monitor of interest. </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>
 
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UFmbutler

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>The events we've seen since the 12th have got me thinking a lot about CME prediction.&nbsp; It does not seem to be the case that sunspot activity is particularly useful for CME prediction.&nbsp; It seems as though all CME's tend to originate from one of the active areas that can be seen in the iron ion wavelengths (171, 195, 284A). &nbsp; As a general rule of thumb, the more active the region, the more likely it is to produce a CME and/or a sunspot, but that certainly is not always the case.&nbsp; On the 14th for instance, a smaller area, pretty much directly to the left of primary active region also triggered a "small" flare-like event, pretty much the same size as the one the came from the primary active area a few hours later.&nbsp; On the other hand, both of the "bigger" CME events this week came from the primary active region, and that side of the sun did in fact "light up" this week in the 195A image, with several new "hot spots" of activity.&nbsp;I find myself constantly checking the geos x-ray flux monitor in the morning when I wake up, and then watching the SOHO 195A images to see where the flare occured when I've find something in the x-ray flux monitor of interest. <br /> Posted by michaelmozina</DIV></p><p>This kind of stuff is still a very active area of research but everyone is leaning toward the side of there not being any correlation between CMEs/geomagnetic storms here at Earth and any properties of the solar wind.&nbsp; Like I've mentioned before, last summer I looked at every storm I could find from 1994-2006(I wrote an automated routine that went through the relativistic electron flux data and identified approximately 1 per day) and ran it through a neural network, trying to find a correlation between when they occurred/how strong they were/how long they were&nbsp; and various solar wind properties such as speed, density, magnetic field components, the degree that the magnetotail was stretched, etc, as well as general measurements of solar activity, and things like the DST index(a total of 18 parameters).&nbsp; There were no correlations whatsoever.&nbsp; We also divided that year interval up into solar min/ascending phase/max/descending and there isn't really even much of a dependence on the number of storms on the phase.&nbsp; I believe most of the storms occurred during the descending phase but all of them were pretty close.</p><p>If anyone does finally "crack the code" eventually though, it will be huge. </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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BoJangles

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<p>With out knowing a thing about CME or what not , are neural networks the best thing to use&nbsp;in finding correlations ? Honestly every bone in my body shivered when i read that. In my opinion neural networks (as used in computer science) are only good at finding situationally dependent&nbsp;effects (well at least in my understanding). Don't let me detract from anything else you said, as im and truly your lesser in this respect. Surely there was some better statistical analysis technics you could have used, why neural networks ?</p><p>The reason i ask , because in finance there isn't really any company i know that&nbsp;uses such correlation techniques; well accurately at least.</p><p>As for a correlation between CME and geomagnetic storms here on earth, i have no idea. Though the video seems to show at least some affect on SOHO.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font color="#808080">-------------- </font></p><p align="center"><font size="1" color="#808080"><em>Let me start out with the standard disclaimer ... I am an idiot, I know almost nothing, I haven’t taken calculus, I don’t work for NASA, and I am one-quarter Bulgarian sheep dog.  With that out of the way, I have several stupid questions... </em></font></p><p align="center"><font size="1" color="#808080"><em>*** A few months blogging can save a few hours in research ***</em></font></p> </div>
 
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UFmbutler

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<p>It is such a complex system that there isn't really anything better than a neural network that we could think of.&nbsp; You have thousands of storms, but more importantly, since our data was at 5 second resolution, we had 12 years divided by 5 seconds data points, each with 18 variables, and we were trying to find a correlation both between the variables when a storm does occur, but also for when nothing happens.&nbsp; The guy who taught me how to do it is employed by Los Alamos National Lab specifically to use things such as neural networks for science purposes, mostly magnetospheric physics like this, so if done properly it can produce meaningful results.&nbsp; It just...didn't.&nbsp; Nobody had ever tried it before on such a complex problem there so we thought it was worth a shot.&nbsp; But, I promise it works sometimes...otherwise that guy wouldn't have a job.</p><p>Also, neural nets have the ability to, given values for each input variable, predict whether something will happen or not.&nbsp; So if it had worked we would have a predictive model we could have tested.&nbsp; It didn't work out, but don't assume neural networks are useless, they can be pretty powerful in certain situations. </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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BoJangles

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<p>Hrm sounds good enough for me, maybe i should look at the latest incarnation of neural networks. Did you use a commercial product, or was it more an in house (uni) setup&nbsp;?</p><p>In regards to the OP, if this does culminate into a sunspot what implication would it have, well apart from it turns into a sunspot ?</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font color="#808080">-------------- </font></p><p align="center"><font size="1" color="#808080"><em>Let me start out with the standard disclaimer ... I am an idiot, I know almost nothing, I haven’t taken calculus, I don’t work for NASA, and I am one-quarter Bulgarian sheep dog.  With that out of the way, I have several stupid questions... </em></font></p><p align="center"><font size="1" color="#808080"><em>*** A few months blogging can save a few hours in research ***</em></font></p> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Hrm sounds good enough for me, maybe i should look at the latest incarnation of neural networks. Did you use a commercial product, or was it more an in house (uni) setup&nbsp;?In regards to the OP, if this does culminate into a sunspot what implication would it have, well apart from it turns into a sunspot ? <br />Posted by BoJangles</DIV><br /><br />No signs of that yet.</p><p>Compare the latest megnetogram (gray) vs the visible continuum (yellow) The active area is dead center in both frames...</p><p><br /><img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/Content/images/store/2/13/02903956-9117-47a2-bdb9-fa1319956644.Medium.jpg" alt="" /></p><p><br /><img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/Content/images/store/8/11/585df2f8-fc47-4e91-8b1a-d17a94dd1de8.Medium.jpg" alt="" /><br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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michaelmozina

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>With out knowing a thing about CME or what not , are neural networks the best thing to use&nbsp;in finding correlations ? </DIV></p><p>I guess the unfortunate short answer is "yes".&nbsp; I've been relying upon my neural network to figure them out, and so far, well, let's just say I've had better batting averages in other areas of research. :)</p><p>I guess my attitude is that if I actually undestand them, I should be able to write software to find them and predict them.&nbsp; Identifying them may be possible via techniques NASA/JPL are using with STEREO images to figure out directional components in running difference images and plotting trajectories based on both STEREO images.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Actually "predicting" them however is evidently a much trickier proposition IMO. </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>
 
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michaelmozina

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>No signs of that yet.Compare the latest megnetogram (gray) vs the visible continuum (yellow) The active area is dead center in both frames... <br /> Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV></p><p>This is what I mean when I say that sunspots are not really a decent "predictor" of CME events.&nbsp; The active regions in 195A seem to be related to both CME's and sunspots, but a given region can be active without causing either a sunspot or a CME.&nbsp; I observe a lot of CME's with no coresponding sunspot, and sunspots that do not result in CME activity.&nbsp; It seems that "activeness" in the iron ion wavelengths is necessary for both CME events and sunspots, but more observed activeness in 195A is required for sunspot activity than for CME activity.&nbsp; CME's themselves seem to originate from the active regions, but "predicting" when or if a CME will occur from any given active region seems to be a whole different ballgame entirely. &nbsp; </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>
 
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michaelmozina

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>This kind of stuff is still a very active area of research but everyone is leaning toward the side of there not being any correlation between CMEs/geomagnetic storms here at Earth and any properties of the solar wind.&nbsp; Like I've mentioned before, last summer I looked at every storm I could find from 1994-2006(I wrote an automated routine that went through the relativistic electron flux data and identified approximately 1 per day) and ran it through a neural network, trying to find a correlation between when they occurred/how strong they were/how long they were&nbsp; and various solar wind properties such as speed, density, magnetic field components, the degree that the magnetotail was stretched, etc, as well as general measurements of solar activity, and things like the DST index(a total of 18 parameters).&nbsp; There were no correlations whatsoever.&nbsp; We also divided that year interval up into solar min/ascending phase/max/descending and there isn't really even much of a dependence on the number of storms on the phase.&nbsp; I believe most of the storms occurred during the descending phase but all of them were pretty close.If anyone does finally "crack the code" eventually though, it will be huge. <br /> Posted by UFmbutler</DIV></p><p>Well, it's certainly been my intent on cracking the code of a CME event since I first took a gander at Yohkoh images.&nbsp; In some ways I feel like I've made significant progress through the years, but when it comes to deciding which active regions might result in CME events and figuring out the timing of such events has been rather elusive to say the least.&nbsp; </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>
 
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michaelmozina

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<p>I have some questions about what we might agree on as it relates to CME's, and I'll try to keep my points as "generic" as possible.&nbsp; I would however like some feedback about some of my opinions and see if we agree on the following issues related to CME prediction.</p><p>It appears to me that "active regions" as seen in 195A and X-ray images tend to be the primary source of CME activity.&nbsp;&nbsp; There does not seem to be a one to one correlation between the level of activity and the ability to predict a CME from these images alone.&nbsp; In other words, sometims only a "slightly' active region seems to be the focal point of the CME, which is typically (not always) followed by an increase in activity in the iron ion wavelengths.</p><p>Sunspots also seem to be "related to", but not directly related to these active regions.&nbsp; In this case however the level of activity seen at higher energy states *does* seem to have some "limited" value in predicting sunspots, but again, there is not a one to one corellation between them.&nbsp; We often see activity in 195A and no sunspots.&nbsp; The reverse is not true however.&nbsp; Sunspots seem to "require" whatever process we observe in 195A. </p><p>In the sense that sunspot activity is loosely related to activity seen in 195A,&nbsp; and multiple sunspots are typically associated with multiple or large active regions, when sunspot activity is highest,CME activity is somewhat more likely.&nbsp; While CME liklihood is increased, "predicting" a specific event is still beyond my ability, and probably everyone else as well.&nbsp; Whatever the 'cause' of the actual CME, it's not specifically or directly related to the activity seen in 195A.</p><p>Would you agree or disagree with any/all of these points? </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>
 
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UFmbutler

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<p>I'm not really sure, I haven't looked at the data you are looking at.&nbsp; At LANL they only care about the storms near Earth, ie in geosynchronous orbit.&nbsp; Near Earth, the storm activity doesn't appear to be dependent on the level of solar activity.&nbsp; I would agree though that CMEs are kind of a mystery.&nbsp; In my stellar atmospheres class we discussed them briefly, but it was mostly on a basic level...to get the real picture of what is going on I'd have to take a course on heliophysics probably.</p><p>This guy seems to agree with you:&nbsp; http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005HvaOB..29..187N &nbsp;&nbsp; he has written a couple papers in 2005 or so that talk about this line as a, as he puts it, "CME Watch" line.&nbsp; My problem with it is that it seems to be purely empirical, which is fine, but we also need a theory to describe why this line would be related to CMEs.&nbsp; What process produces it and why is it important for a CME?&nbsp; With quasar spectra we know what part of the quasar produces each part of the spectrum, so it should be possible to work out some kind of model to do the same for the sun.&nbsp; I'm just speculating though. </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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michaelmozina

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I'm not really sure, I haven't looked at the data you are looking at.&nbsp; At LANL they only care about the storms near Earth, ie in geosynchronous orbit.&nbsp; Near Earth, the storm activity doesn't appear to be dependent on the level of solar activity.&nbsp; I would agree though that CMEs are kind of a mystery.&nbsp; In my stellar atmospheres class we discussed them briefly, but it was mostly on a basic level...to get the real picture of what is going on I'd have to take a course on heliophysics probably.This guy seems to agree with you:&nbsp; http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005HvaOB..29..187N &nbsp;&nbsp; he has written a couple papers in 2005 or so that talk about this line as a, as he puts it, "CME Watch" line.&nbsp; My problem with it is that it seems to be purely empirical, which is fine, but we also need a theory to describe why this line would be related to CMEs.&nbsp; What process produces it and why is it important for a CME?&nbsp; With quasar spectra we know what part of the quasar produces each part of the spectrum, so it should be possible to work out some kind of model to do the same for the sun.&nbsp; I'm just speculating though. <br /> Posted by UFmbutler</DIV></p><p>That was a very interesting paper.&nbsp; Thanks.&nbsp; I realized as I was reading through the paper that the author's limitation is essentially the same as mine.&nbsp;&nbsp; We're both looking for a "cause" of the CME activity by looking for patterns before, during and after the flare in the 195A wavelengths, and in the end, there isn't any discernable pattern that is clearly connected to each and every CME.&nbsp;&nbsp; There are some patterns, but not always.&nbsp; The "cause" of the CME may not be directly "caused" by the 195A high energy emissions, but rather the triggering mechanism generates the 195A emissions and the CME at the same time.</p><p>I do have some idea of what I beleive that triggering mechanism might be, but if I am correct, only a heliosiesmology study would ever be able to locate a "sign" of the CME in advance of the CME.&nbsp; We would specifically need to look for unusual movements of mass below about .995R and signs of specific types of vibrations in the "stratification subsurface" as Kosovichev calls it. &nbsp;&nbsp; I would never be able to "predict" such events in 195A images, and it would require a STEREO type of an approach rather than a monocular view of the sun. &nbsp; </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>
 
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