Hurricane Ivan

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najab

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I thought it might be a good idea to start a separate thread for Ivan.<p>Ivan has weakened somewhat, the 5PM update gives an intensity of 105mph, but he's expected to re-strengthen quickly. We in Barbados just started feeling the first significant rain bands...it's gonna be a long night.</p>
 
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jcdenton

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Wouldn't this be better off in the Freespace board? You said it yourself after all, it needs a diversion from political discussion.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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silylene old

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There is far too much crap on Freespace for a long term discussion, as threads get quickly buried from other threads spam. Best to keep it here. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>
 
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jcdenton

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Well Arobie's already got a discussion started over here.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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lunatic133

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I would like to know why in all the decades the VAB has been there there was never a problem before, and now, suddenly, twice in two weeks! Haven't they had to deal with such things before?
 
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najab

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><i>Haven't they had to deal with such things before?</i><p>Nope. The closest they came was Floyd in 1999, but that veered off at the last moment.</p>
 
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nacnud

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<font color="yellow">I would like to know why in all the decades the VAB has been there there was never a problem before</font><br /><br /><br />NASA sponsored butteries in Africa, obviously the funding got appropriated to MtM. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />
 
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najab

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As was said by other posters, there's a real good chance that Ivan is going to end up affecting South Florida and, by extension, KSC.
 
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lunatic133

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I remember Floyd. It was so huge that we had flooding and school was cancelled all the way in New Jersey. But like I said -- why did they not prepare for this contingency sooner? Didn't the people who built the VAB consider that, gee, they live in Florida, there might be hurricanes?
 
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najab

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I'm sure that if you had told someone in 1964 that the VAB would still be in use in 2004 they would have laughed at you. Then they would have told you that the atomic shuttle to the Moon wouldn't need a VAB.
 
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najab

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And by "Shuttle" they wouldn't mean something like our STS orbiters, they would mean the 11:15 New York/Luna City PanAm shuttle.
 
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robotical

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From what I remember from my last trip to Kennedy (six years ago) the center is in a low-lying area. How vulnerable is the center to storm surges? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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najab

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KSC is about 5 feet above sea level so storm surge is always a concern. It is, however, a fair distance from the ocean to the Shuttle facilities so unless the storm surge is ciombined with onshore driving winds, the Shuttle fleet is relatively safe.
 
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najab

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Hopefully I'm not speaking too soon, but it seems that Ivan zigged at the last moment. That's not good news for Florida though, since the new model runs are starting to agree that an FL landfall might be in order.
 
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najab

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Still a few hours left until it clears the area, but it's looking like it will just be powerlines and a few roofs. I've lost power here so I might not post again for a while (only so much juice in the UPS).<p>Florida, keep an eye on this one, it's mean spirited much like Charley was when it passed here.</p>
 
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najab

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Still under Ivan's thumb. It's a mean SOB so I hope it misses Florida. There's still about 1/3 of the storm to pass us before they can start restoring power. If this is what a brush with Ivan is like I fear for Tobago and Grenada - they're gonna get it full in the face.
 
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CalliArcale

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I hope it misses everybody, though obviously that's not gonna happen.... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>
 
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rvastro

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We don't need another one!<br />One trop storm and 2 hurricanes in one month is enough for me, well could be 3 canes <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" /><br /><br />
 
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CalliArcale

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Oh boy.... Looks like Jamaica's gonna get nailed. And although this is promising for KSC, it's by no means free and clear. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>
 
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arobie

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That looks like it is going in the gulf. Where is it expected to go towards after that, easterly or westerly?
 
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Testing

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They cannot predict that far in advance. Take a look at the discussion part of the NHC.NOAA IVAN site and look for the course track error. They can be off by 100 Miles in their prediction. Hurricain track prediction is still experimental. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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jcdenton

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Any word on what category it is now? Last I heard it was a cat-5 storm.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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Testing

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IVAN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON<br />HURRICANE SCALE. DATA FROM A NOAA P3 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE<br />THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...<br />195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...IN A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE EYE. <br />SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. <br /><br />This site will tell most anything you may want to know about 'cains.<br /><br />http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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