Hurricane Jeanne

[najab]

The latest [5AM September 23rd] 5 day prediction shows Jeanne briefly coming ashore just South of the Cape. Following what is fast becoming a tradition (4th time for the year!!!<img src="/images/icons/shocked.gif" />), it's time to start a tracking thread.

 

[mah_fl]

I am 15 miles SW of Jacksonville.

 

[alokmohan]

We indians dont face it.

 

[najab]

><i>High winds this week have delayed the VAB panel repairs. There are still gaping holes in the building.</i><p>Which were caused, in all likelihood, by the spawn of Ivan.<br /><p>><i>As of now we plan on securing the Shuttle Orbiters tonight (payload bay doors closed, gear up, powwer down.)</i><p>Which, barring an Act of Congress to insert a month between October and November, guarantees that RTF will be in June.</p></p></p>

 

[marslauncher]

How close is Jeanne going to come to the Cape?<br /><br />Is it going to be more of a direct hit on the VAB?

 

[najab]

Hurricane forcasting isn't a fine thing yet. <b>If</b> the storm moves according to current predictions, then the eye of the storm should come ashore a few miles south of the cape, pass over or just to the West of KSC, and then head back out to sea a few miles North. In that case, KSC would experience winds of about 100 miles per hour - stronger than Frances, but for less time.

 

[backspace]

This doesn't bode well, does it? Hopefully there's enough time to secure everything... although it seems a bit of a setback to be just getting back to operations and then having to close it all up again. <br /><br />This is a message from above that we need to get those birds into orbit where they belong!<br /><br />With the landfall and eye coming so close, are they taking further measures on the Atlas and Delta Heavy that are still out on the pad?

 

[radarredux]

> <i><font color="yellow">It looks like we will clear KSC starting at midnight tonight.</font>/i><br /><br />Boy, all these storms and evacuations must be playing hell with schedules, local economies, and so on.</i>

 

[radarredux]

> <i><font color="yellow">Never mind the present schedules, there is still a real danger of damage that would really trash the schedules!</font>/i><br /><br />Yep. Didn't mean to belittle the potential danger.<br /><br />The news media tend to only get excited about the eye wall or the obvious visual damage. They almost seem disappointed when the worst predictions don't happen. How much time has been devoted to showing reporters out in the wind?<br /><br />But even if nothing happens (the best circumstance) there is still a very real impact to the people in the area. Disruption to lives, schedules thrown off, lost income, and so on. Guess it is harder to portray that on video.<br /><br />By the way, I *really* like the maps showing the different models. I wish this presentation format was used more often.</i>

 

[lunatic133]

I am sorry but I cannot resist...<br /><br />Jeanne's coming to the cape! Better warn Major Nelson.

 

[najab]

ba-dum-*ching*!

 

[shuttle_rtf]

Oh hell. Are the Shuttles in real danger here? (Posted by an Englishman that has never experienced a Hurricane)

 

[najab]

><i>Where is that chart you posted showing ALL the buildings?</i><p>Here it is.</p>

 

[najab]

Note that the windspeeds are in miles per hour, not knots. Jeanne's winds are about 105 knots or about <b>120 mph!!!</b><p>Add to that the fact that the sustained windspeed a couple hundred feet above the ground can easily be 10-20 knots higher, that gusts are much higher still <b>and</b> that the VAB already suffered damage and is still open to the wind.....*shudder*.</p>

 

[shuttle_rtf]

The chart showing how much each building can stand beckons belief! Why on earth does the building with $6 billion worth of Shuttles have the weakest resistance.<br /><br />Stupid question I suppose, but there was no way they could pull them out and maybe use the train line used to bring in the SRB sections to get them out in time?<br /><br />Hope they are going to be ok <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" />

 

[najab]

From our point of view the good thing is that the heaviest weather is to the South of the storm - if it was to the North as is usually the case then KSC would be in <i>real</i> trouble. But...the question remains: When will she turn? If the turn happens around landfall (good for Florida), the eye is going to be dragged right over KSC (bad for the space program).<p>So, do we hope for minimal damage and loss of life in Florida, or do we hope for minimal damage for KSC?<p>><i>Stupid question I suppose, but there was no way they could pull them out and maybe use the train line used to bring in the SRB sections to get them out in time?</i><p>No stupid questions...but you're right, it just couldn't be done. The Orbiters are so deep in a mass of scaffolding and work platforms that it would probably take weeks to get them out without damaging anything. Plus, the Orbiters were flown in to KSC so there's no rail car that can hold them - designing and building the cradle would have taken weeks as well. The last "nail in the coffin" is that I don't think the American rail network is designed with such long and wide loads in mind - they just might not fit.<p>I just had a thought....they could (in theory) take them out by road. After all, that's how they get them from the Shuttle facility at Palmdale to Edwards - they just roll them over.</p></p></p></p>

 

[najab]

Dave. I know it's probably not much comfort when the Orbiters and facilities which have been your life's work is in serious peril, but.... it's only hardware. What has been built can be built again.<p>The important thing is that <b>you</b> stay safe. Shuttles can be repaired or replaced. Shuttle_guy can't.</p>

 

[arobie]

Shuttle_Guy,<br /><br />What are you doing for the storm? Are you evacuating? If you are, to where?

 

[najab]

The OPF buildings came through Frances with only very minor damage. The thing is that the structures may have been weakened somewhat, there hasn't really been enough time to to a thorough structural examination. The VAB was damaged however and is definitely at risk - it is open to the wind in places and has damage to the roof.

 

[shuttle_rtf]

Thanks very much for the information, Naja, SG.<br /><br /> />So, do we hope for minimal damage and loss of life in Florida, or do we hope for minimal damage for KSC?<<br /><br />I think everyone's answer would be the same, but I understood your question - puts it into perspective. <br /><br />Personally, those Shuttles represent - by way of visual and bravery - NASA. There can't be many people in the world that don't know what a Space Shuttle is - or looks like. There aren't many people who aren't in awe at seeing a launch (even on video), but not many people know just how much work goes into keeping those ladies flying - even after two are lost....<br /><br />....so whatever I'm feeling when they are threatened - as they are right now - can't even be close to those who have dedicated their careers and lives to the Shuttle Program.<br /><br /> I've heard it too many times, calls for them to be retired due to being too "costly" and "unsafe", even on this very site by every single poster that answered this point just the other month.<br /><br /> It would be a terrible misfortune for any serious harm to come to them now, just as we head towards a year that will see them rise into sky once again.<br /><br /> I hope everyone is going to be ok and that KSC gets through this as best as possible. <br /><br />SG, be safe!!

 

[shuttle_rtf]

I don't know if I'm reading the radar right but this looks real bad. One of them is saying 110mph winds and 135mph gusts. Big - fast flowing red driven up and across where NASA is. Someone who knows what a damn Hurricane is please update <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" />

 

[shuttle_rtf]

Thanks, so many different versions of what's happening with the websites that are out there. <br /><br />Again, hope everyone is ok in the area.

 

[para3]

Tee Hee <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong><font size="3" color="#99cc00">.....Shuttle me up before I get tooooooooo old and feeble.....</font></strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong><font size="4" color="#ff6600">---Happiness is winning a huge lottery--- </font></strong></p> </div>

 

[shuttle_rtf]

Managed to get a Florida reporter on MSN and he's spoken to one of the NASA PR people actually at KSC passing out info with the small crew watching over the place.<br /><br />He's saying the latest is the Shuttles appear ok <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />

 

[shuttle_rtf]

Jeanne - according to the radar on the websites - seems to be weakening as it moves up the State. I have no idea how damaging the outside spirals are, as they are still going over and over where NASA is, while the eye moves up the middle/west of the State. <br /><br />Anyone?