India AND China beating US back to Moon

radarredux · May 18, 2006

When President Bush first announced VSE, the first concrete step was an orbiter to the Moon, what is now called the imaginative name Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). The planned date for this orbiter is October 2008. In the meantime, it now appears that both India (with Chandrayaan-1) and China (with Chang’e-I) will beat the US back to the Moon with their orbiters. Given the general lack of interest in the Moon for the past 30+ years (with the exception of the low-budget experimental Clementine and Prospector missions), to suddenly have at least three planned Lunar missions from three different countries is certainly exciting. Maybe no one is calling it a "space race", but it is certainly looking more and more like one.

tomnackid · May 18, 2006

In the meantime, it now appears that both India (with Chandrayaan-1) and China (with Chang’e-I) will beat the US back to the Moon with their orbiters. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ummm, China and India have never been to the moon in the first place so they can't be "beating us back to the moon." Maybe its just a semantic issue but since this is a message board we should try and be careful with our use of language. Maybe Apollo was so long ago for some of you that is seems almost unreal--like LPs and cameras with film--but I can assure you that the US successfully acheived what China and India are now just attempting over 30 years ago. That's not to say they might not ultimately achieve victory. Spain was the first country in Europe to make permanent contact with the new world yet today their economy is one of the worst in western europe.

themanwithoutapast · May 18, 2006

1. You fail to mention that the only current moon mission that is active is the SMART-1 lunar probe (by ESA) So is Europe beating the US "back to Moon" as well???? 2. Both the Indian probe as well as the Chinese moon probe have been in a design and development phase before the VSE has been announced in 2004. The LRO project was started later on. Projects like this have a minimum lead time of about 4 years, it's just not possible to do this below that timeframe.

edkyle98 · May 18, 2006

This is just silly. India and China won't be beating anyone to the Moon, or even "back" to the Moon. The U.S. has already been "back", with two Galileo flybys in 1990 and 1992, with Clementine in 1994, and with Lunar Prospector in 1998. Europe is there now, with SMART 1. The Soviet Union was first to the Moon, of course, in 1959 with Lunas 1, 2, and 3. - Ed Kyle

spayss · May 18, 2006

Space race?? Hopefully the scientific community won't be obsessed with such a silly juvenile concept. Science is about knowledge and not jingoism. Speak of a space race to the American people and the response will be : YAWN.

lbiderman · May 18, 2006

I agree to almost everything that you stated above, but I'm sorry to inform you that the Spanish economy is one of the most dynamic of Europe, and certainly not "one of the worst". Of course, that is mainly semantic, since there are not many countries over there, and all of them are rich

radarredux · May 19, 2006

> Space race?? Hopefully the scientific community won't be obsessed with such a silly juvenile concept. Science is about knowledge and not jingoism./i> That is terrible naive at several levels, including the idea that the VSE is primarily about science. As the White House's Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy recently stated: "As I see it, questions about the vision boil down to whether we want to incorporate the Solar System in our economic sphere, or not." This will become especially important if early probes show interesting but limited locations on the Moon. /> Speak of a space race to the American people and the response will be : YAWN./i> Listen to the Congressional hearings regarding the VSE. In almost every members of Congress express concerns about arriving at the Moon and being greeted by someone else (usually the Chinese are mentioned). Griffin has mentioned this several times too. Remember, Congress is filled with people with HUGE egos. When France didn't support the invasion of Iraq, Congress wanted to change the name of "french fries" in their cafeteria to "freedom fries". Even science is highly competitive. Look at the race to find the first planets around another star. Or look at how often big science stories are now broken in the media before appearing in a peer-reviewed journal. Or look at the race to patent everything under the sun, including genes from all sorts of species. Finally, Americans are obsessed with competition. Just look at the popularity of the competitive reality TV shows from Survivor to American Idol. Or look at the hype behind March Madness, the Super Bowl, the pennate race, or the home run race. The X Prize, which probably captured more American minds than anything NASA has done in the last decade (except with the destruction of Columbia), w

qso1 · May 19, 2006

You bring up some valid points with regards to scientific/technological races but: If the public sees this as a moon race 2, do you really think they will buy into it when they still use the same anti humans in space/moon arguments from moon race 1? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> My borrowed quote for the time being:There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened. </div>

john_316 · May 19, 2006

I don't see a moon race like the one we had with the USSR. I see a moon race to exploit the minerals and ores of the moon but not just to get there. We will be there "first" again... <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />

tomnackid · May 19, 2006

I agree to almost everything that you stated above, but I'm sorry to inform you that the Spanish economy is one of the most dynamic of Europe, and certainly not "one of the worst". Of course, that is mainly semantic, since there are not many countries over there, and all of them are rich. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Sorry, I didn't mean to insult Spain. "One of the worst" was probably not the best choice of words. But the principal still stands. In the 15th century Spain was one of the wealthiest countries in Europe. They were exploring and colonizing the new world, their navy was second to none. Today Spain ranks well behind the UK, Germany, France in per capita income and GNP (although as you point out in absolute global terms Spain's economy is still formidable). Just wanted to point out that being first doesn't necessarily guarantee dominance.

radarredux · May 19, 2006

> If the public sees this as a moon race 2, do you really think they will buy into it when they still use the same anti humans in space/moon arguments from moon race 1?/i> I agree that it cannot be seen as the same moon race -- essentially a race for flags and footprints. This is a risk with the current, publicly acknowledged goals of NASA: 2-4 people, for a few days to less than two weeks, and only twice a year. But Griffin and others clearly have larger goals in mind. They just haven't gone on record with them yet. I think the second "race" will be about Lunar resource utilization, economies of scale, and the race to scale human presence on the Moon -- all which are linked.

lbiderman · May 19, 2006

Totally agree with you there. Certainly the US must focus and start spending bucks to mantain their leadership in space, specially on the Moon and Mars. Although, I still believe the LRO will be a much more capable orbiter that the ones China and India are launching. Speaking of LRO, how is the Moon program to continue after that orbiter? I recall reading that NASA was supposed to launch one ship per year, but I could be mistaken there.

qso1 · May 19, 2006

RadarRedux: But Griffin and others clearly have larger goals in mind. They just haven't gone on record with them yet. Me: They need to go on record in order not to give the impression its a flags n footprints scenario. I should also note that it won't be exactly the same kind of race as before but making it a race IMO kind of defeats the purpose of going. A race implies a finish line and Apollo definetely had a finish line. If we go to the moon, they should emphasize as GWB1 did, we go to stay. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> My borrowed quote for the time being:There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened. </div>

j05h · May 20, 2006

Griffin has already said something along the lines of "it's a journey not a race." The big difference, again, is that this time around all the major players seem to agree that we (humanity) are going to spend the next several decades opening the Inner Solar System up to travel, exploration and development. No single nation "wins", but we all end up winners. Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center">We need a first generation of pioneers. </div> </div>

radarredux · May 20, 2006

> A race implies a finish line and Apollo definetely had a finish line./i> I agree; I dislike the idea of a "finish line" because then the effort is, by definition, "finished". But there are lots of milestones people race to be first to reach, and I suspect these will include (1) high resolution and elevation data of the Moon, especially the far side, that compares with data we have received from Mars, (2) First rover on the Moon, (3) first comfirmation of water in the cold traps on the Moon, (4) first human landing in 40+ years, (5) first stay that exceeds a full lunar cycle, (6) first Lunar construction using Lunar material, (7) first products used off the Moon derived from Lunar material, etc. Having agreed that a race as conceived, implemented, and (most damaging of all) completed in the 1960s to early 1970s, is not advantageous, there is certainly some type of race. The following is from a story about a recent Congressional hearing; it is dripping with race metaphores:<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />When the House Appropriations subcommittee that oversees NASA met to review the agency’s 2007 budget request March 30, money talk quickly gave way to alarm at China’s ambitioushuman spaceflight program. ... But rather than devoting the next two and a half hours quizzing NASA Administrator Mike Griffin about the details of the agency’s $16.792 billion budget request, the Republicans on the panel, in particular, spent the majority of their time hashing out the threat China and other space-faring nations pose to U.S. supremacy in space. The next space race Before all was said and done, Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas), the former House majority leader, declared the United States to be engaged in a space race with China. “We have a space race</blockquote>

radarredux · May 20, 2006

Here is just another data point showing how members of Congress do not want to be second when it comes to landing on the moon (again for us):<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />Representative Ken Calvert, chairman of the Space and Aeronautics subcommittee of the House Science Committee, was quoted by AW&ST in October 2005 as expressing concern that China might send humans to the Moon before NASA returns astronauts there. “Even if we follow the president’s vision and we’re back to the Moon by 2020, I also serve on the Armed Service [sic] Committee, so I have the ability to look at a lot of things. ... And looking at things that are not classified, more than likely the Chinese will be on the Moon before that. I would rather be on the Moon to greet the Chinese rather than going to the Moon and have the Chinese greet us.#8221;<hr /></blockquote> http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/space/RS21641.pdf

radarredux · May 20, 2006

Another data point from a Griffin Speech last month. It is indirect, but his speeches are sprinkled with the terms "lead" and "leadership", in that if the US wants to "lead" it cannot "follow":<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />This observation has a corollary. Imagine if you will a world of some future time – whether it be 2020 or 2040 or whenever – when some other nationsor alliances are capable of reaching and exploring the moon, or voyaging to Mars, and the United States cannot and does not. Is it even conceivable that in such a world America would still be regarded as a leader among nations, never mind the leader? And if not, what might be the consequences of such a shift in thought upon the global balance of economic and strategic power? Are we willing to accept those consequences? In the end, these are the considerations at stake when we decide, as Americans, upon the goals we set for, and the resources we allocate to, our civil space program. Humans will go to Moon and Mars; the only questions are which humans, what values they will hold, what languages they will speak.p><hr /></blockquote> http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/146291main_NationalSpaceSymposium_new.pdf

radarredux · May 20, 2006

From a Griffin speech in March for Congress: "For America to continue to be preeminent among nations it is necessary for us also to lead in space exploration scientific discovery, and aeronautics research." http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/147653main_mg_house_20060330.pdf

radarredux · May 20, 2006

From Griffin's speech at Mississippi State: "The human imperative to explore will surely be satisfied, by others if not by us. What the United States gains from a robust, focused program of human space exploration is the opportunity for world leadership in the greatest enterprise in human history. This is our destiny, and I believe that America must leadthe way." http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/145558main_griffin%20msu.pdf

edkyle98 · May 20, 2006

"From a Griffin speech in March for Congress: "For America to continue to be preeminent among nations, it is necessary for us also to lead in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research." " The first nation to reach the Moon was the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Remember the USSR? - Ed Kyle

Swampcat · May 20, 2006

"The first nation to reach the Moon was the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics." And how many Soviet citizens walked on the Moon? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ------------------------------------------------------------------- "I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical. Unsuccessful rebellions, indeed, generally establish the encroachments on the rights of the people which have produced them. An observation of this truth should render honest republican governors so mild in their punishment of rebellions as not to discourage them too much. It is a medicine necessary for the sound health of government."Thomas Jefferson </div>

qso1 · May 21, 2006

RadarRedux/excerpt from Congressional hearings: “If China beats us there, we will have lost the space program,” Wolf said. “They are basically, fundamentally in competition with us.” Me: IMO, hype and grandstanding. NASA advocates have to be careful not to get funding increases based on that. We won't loose the space program because China might get someone to the moon for their first time before we get there after having been their before Chinese lunarnauts were probably even born. If they beat us there, we get smart and private enterprise builds the vehicles that gain U.S. inexpensive access to LEO which is what we should do to continue our lead in manned spaceflight. And much like airlines, build vehicles for countries that order them for their nascent space tourism efforts. This has in effect begun with Sir Richard Bransons initial orders for SS vehicles being that hes a British CEO ordering from an American provider. RadarRedux/excerpt from Congressional hearings: “We had a 40-year lead in space and we’re giving it up,” he said. “The U.S. is quibbling over $3 billion to $5 billion. It’s amazing to me.” Me: Got that right, why isn't anyone quibbling over the $400 billion dollar deficit? Unfortunately if there is a major outcry over that, NASA will be the first place they cut. Hmmmm...if one cuts $1 billion off NASAs budget, thats a whopping 24 (+/- a few) hours worth of deficit spending...I'm so impressed, think I'll write my Congressman a thankyou note LOL. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> My borrowed quote for the time being:There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened. </div>

mikeemmert · May 21, 2006

Look, we've already won this race. Let the Chinese and the Indians go at it, it will be fun to watch. There was only one winner of the Moon Race: the United States of America. That's frozen in history. Personally, I would like to see much greater resources devoted to developing air-breathing or partially airbreathing boosters, rotovators, beam-powered vehicles, something to make space access practicable. Let India and China duel with archaeological artifacts.

radarredux · May 21, 2006

> The first nation to reach the Moon was the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics./i> The Soviet Union led a lot of things in space until the US started to gain traction in the late 1960s. I think Apollo 8 was probably the turning point where the US could definitively claim a major leadership position.

edkyle98 · May 21, 2006

"The Soviet Union led a lot of things in space until the US started to gain traction in the late 1960s." My point exactly. The USSR led the world into space, but that did not keep it "preeminent among nations". The US put the first men on the Moon, but that has not prevented its relative economic strength, the real measure of a nation's power, from being weakened relative to China and other nations. - Ed Kyle

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