New Horizons Mission on target?

[jhunter]

Does anyone know if the New Horizons probe is going to make the 2007 launch window? The last I heard it was going to be close....

 

[omegamogo]

IIRC due to complications at the Los Alamos lab only half of the plutonium fuel pellets that are necessary to run all of NH's instruments will be ready by the deadline. They will either launch the mission with out some of its instruments or delay to some other time (I don't believe there will be another suitable launch window for LONG time)

 

[alexblackwell]

<i>They will either launch the mission with out some of its instruments...</i><br /><br />The New Horizons team is <i>not</i> contemplating offloading any instruments.

 

[CalliArcale]

Then how do they intend to make up the power shortfall? The launch window isn't really negotiable, so are they planning a power-sharing concept? That should be doable, actually, though it would limit what can be done during the Pluto flyby. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[najab]

><i>Then how do they intend to make up the power shortfall?</i><p>Hmm....didn't someone post recently about a black-market Plutonium deal that fell through.... <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /></p>

 

[jmilsom]

I've been following this one for years and hope so much it goes ahead. If it misses the launch window ...... .<br /><br />The home page for this mission is:<br /><br />http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/index.htm<br /><br />and the newsroom:<br /><br />http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/newsroom.htm<br /><br />I saw nothing about the lack of fuel pellets on this site, but then although I subscribe to their e-news, I hardly receive anything. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[alexblackwell]

<i>Then how do they intend to make up the power shortfall? The launch window isn't really negotiable, so are they planning a power-sharing concept? That should be doable, actually, though it would limit what can be done during the Pluto flyby.</i><br /><br />As Brian Berger points out in an upcoming Space News feature (summary can be found here; full story is expected on Monday), which a New Horizons (NH) team member told me was a "simplistic" characterization, the power issue is, admittedly, twofold since NH addresses NASA's high-level requirement to explore Pluto/Charon <i>and</i> the Kuiper Belt. Note that both targets have equal priority.<br /><br />Even with the DOE shutdown of plutonium processing, the NH team feels the power situation is manageable for the Pluto/Charon encounter; however, the power situation for the Kuiper Belt portion of the mission is in some doubt, though I'm told NH team members are "cautiously optimistic." And there's always the possibility that the recently proposed New Horizons 2 concept, which would employ building an NH clone to fly by Uranus and on to the Kuiper Belt and for which Senator Mikulski successfully secured concept study funding, could recover any lost science on the latter. We'll see.<br /><br />Having said that, a person on the NH team told me last night that:<br /><br /> "Until we have our spacecraft fully together this winter, we do not know the power demand at [Pluto/Charon] encounter to better than perhaps 10%, <i>i.e</i>., plus or minus 15 to 20 watts-- somewhere between 170 W and 190 W. In the meantime, we are also working on a couple of new power saving measures that [are] not too late to employ.<br /><br />"Until next spring, we will not know exactly the final amount of power that DOE can supply. At present they cannot say to better than 180 W, but it could be much better, <i>i.e</i>., more like 190 W to 195 W."<br /><br />Specifically, and contrar

 

[mikejz]

I guess going and using the Apollo 13 Pu is not an option.

 

[jmilsom]

Hey thanks for the excellent and informative update on the mission! All positive news! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[yurkin]

Good to hear that this problem has been overcome.<br />But it raises the question, what will go wrong next?<br />

 

[imran10]

More bad news.<br /><br />Ralph is late for NASA's New Horizons Mission to Pluto<br /><br />"One of the instruments slated to fly aboard the New Horizons mission to Pluto is late and threatens to affect the entire mission."<br /><br />"Ralph is now a number of months late and has significant cost problems. Last week, in an attempt to solve these problems, New Horizons Project management decided to take instrument development away from Ball Aerospace. <br /><br />Despite this contract directive, Ball Aerospace is now reportedly refusing to comply with management direction. With an already tight schedule, threats resulting from Ralph's delays are now emerging against the planned 2006 launch date of New Horizons. <br /><br />The worst case scenario would be a four year delay in the arrival of New Horizons at Pluto. This could result in a $100 million cost penalty - a cost five times what Ralph cost to develop in the first place."

 

[thalion]

Let's hope they get around this problem, as well.<br /><br />I swear, this mission has had me sweating bullets more than any other over the last decade. How much worse it must be for Alan Stern. <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" />

 

[CalliArcale]

Eek! It's so bad they had to pull development away from Ball Aerospace? That could get very ugly indeed, especially given that Ball is already retaliating by refusing to accept direction. I hope this doesn't end up in the courts; that could kill New Horizons all too easily. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[erdie]

does anyone have some news on the Ralph problem?

 

[thalion]

None--I've been curious about it myself. The New Horizons site actually has a series of possible backup mission plans on that are open if the probe is unable to make its launch window. However, I've heard that they'd prefer to launch the probe with less than the optimal amount of fuel than miss it. We shall see.

 

[erdie]

the mission site has been updated quite recently<br /><br />http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/<br /><br />but there's nothing specific about the ralph problem...

 

[wvbraun]

Looks like they're back on track. It's really amazing how the mission survived first the repeated attempts by NASA to kill it only to be revived by congress again and again and then the problems with the plutonium supply due to the security screw-up at Los Alamos.

 

[jmilsom]

I am surprised no one has posted this yet. The New Horizons team issued a news update today. There is a message from Alan Stern concerning the progress of the mission. And you can now submit your name to their database, which will be recorded on a CD, attached to the spacecraft and sent to Pluto and beyond!<br /><br />http://pluto.jhuapl.edu <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[yg1968]

The mission seems to be on target for its January 2006 launch. <br /><br />See this article:<br /><br />http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/pluto_hearing_050329.html<br />

 

[jmilsom]

Yes. It's looking good. With the success of the Cassini, it should go through without any difficulty. Can't wait until this one is in the air and on its way to Pluto. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[CalliArcale]

Awesome. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />Pluto is way overdue for a visit. A flyby had been part of the original Voyager plan, but when budget problems and beaurocracy delayed the mission, it had to be scrapped because it was no longer feasible. So in a sense, we can say the mission is thirty years overdue! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>