Polaris Dawn

[David Uria]

Following the Polaris Dawn mission and the deorbit of the ISS , is there a chance we will see a bunch more miniature SpaceX space stations and satellites in earth, moon, and mars orbit?

 

[fj.torres]

More than just a chance.
The various commercial space stations aren't being developed as one-offs but as pilot projects.

They won't all be permanently inhabited (or even human-tended in LEO) but if space manufacturing takes off there will be room for, even need, for a few dozen orbital-hub stations to provide the common infrastructure for batch production. As in, a small launcher sends a Varda-equivalent capsule with the ingredients/materials to be fed to an orbital manufacturing engine and the capsule later returns with the output. No need for the 3D printer or whatever to make the round trip.

Or, maybe the station is big with dozens of docking ports for multiple supply capsules or even bigger with human tended leased modules.

There's no telling what will develop in Cis lunar space if SpaceX really runs 25 Starships a year, each with a minimum 100Ton cargo.

Lost in the carping about Starship is the inherent mutability of the design allowing for a range of payloads and orbits, LEO, GEO, Lunar, and even low energy transfers.

Once you take care of the really hard stuff--getting up, navigating, and coming down safely--the rest is relatively simpler and dependent more on market forces than engineering.

 

[David Uria]

Makes sense. With Artemis aiming to return humans to the moon for a more permanent stay, it would probably be nice if the stations were well stocked on all the necessary tools to sustain a colony on the moon. That way, if they begin to run out of supplies, they can just return to the station and restock. The station itself would eventually have to be restocked too, though.

 

[fj.torres]

Makes sense. With Artemis aiming to return humans to the moon for a more permanent stay, it would probably be nice if the stations were well stocked on all the necessary tools to sustain a colony on the moon. That way, if they begin to run out of supplies, they can just return to the station and restock. The station itself would eventually have to be restocked too, though.

Indeed.
Like the fuel depots:
Why return a lunar transfer vehicle all the way down the gravity well to refuel for another sortie from the lunar orbital station when you can run a string of fuel depots at LEO, GEO, and high lunar orbit, each refueling the slow cargo transfer vehicles moving supplies from earth up the chain.

Humans and perishables need to move fast but dry goods, components, and rocket fuel for the depots can go on cheap slow orbits via ion or solar sail drives.

Basically you set up a bucket brigade to the moon and from there, eventually, beyond to Venus, Mars, and the asteroids. Remembering that these "fast" vehicles don't necessarilly have to be manned.

Like a single Starship loaded with probes slides into Mars orbit and drops a dozen landers, refuels in orbit, and moves to Vesta and another depot, all under power instead of a decades-long coasting orbit.

We could conceivably scout out the entire outer system with big heavy orbiters for less than a single New Horizons probe might cost. Cheap launches and mass produced transfer vehicles and probes change the rules of the game entirely.

Who know? Maybe Titan or Ganymede are better colony prospects (thick atmosphere loaded with organics) than Mars. We really don't know enough to make big long term space investments.

The game really starts in Cislunar space.

 

[Cisventure Astronot]

Following the Polaris Dawn mission and the deorbit of the ISS , is there a chance we will see a bunch more miniature SpaceX space stations and satellites in earth, moon, and mars orbit?

IIRC., there are no plans for SpaceX to develop a space station. But they will launch Haven-1, Axiom's station, and Starlab.

There's still a chance, but it'll likely launch after these (assuming they're not cancelled).

 

[fj.torres]

aceIIRC., there are no plans for SpaceX to develop a space station. But they will launch Haven-1, Axiom's station, and Starlab.

There's still a chance, but it'll likely launch after these (assuming they're not cancelled).

It'll depend on market forces.
(And billionaire ambitions.)
Do you really think Polaris is going to end with a moon trip?
Or that if orbital meds and semiconductors are moneymakers SpaceX won't happily modify one or more Crew Starships for extended sorties by the appropriate customers?

Not all space stations need to be custom destinations. Just remember how much useful work NASA got out of SpaceLab. Also the difference between a crewed Starship and a space station isn't all that big.

Finally, SpaceX in fact bid a modified Starship for one of the NASA space station studies but were turned down in favor of smaller efforts with less resources. By now NASA is starting to feel more like the tail than the dog.

 

[Cisventure Astronot]

It'll depend on market forces.
(And billionaire ambitions.)
Do you really think Polaris is going to end with a moon trip?
Or that if orbital meds and semiconductors are moneymakers SpaceX won't happily modify one or more Crew Starships for extended sorties by the appropriate customers?

Not all space stations need to be custom destinations. Just remember how much useful work NASA got out of SpaceLab. Also the difference between a crewed Starship and a space station isn't all that big.

Finally, SpaceX in fact bid a modified Starship for one of the NASA space station studies but were turned down in favor of smaller efforts with less resources. By now NASA is starting to feel more like the tail than the dog.

Good point. SpaceX isn't designing a bespoke space station, but they are designing Starship HLS. We don't know much about HLS, though. If they decide to only make a small livable space, then they might not bother using it as a makeshift space station.

You're right, it'll depend on market forces. I think the primary factors are how much it'll cost to convert (and subsequently operate) a Starship, how many companies drop out of the Commercial LEO Destinations program, and how large the LEO economy turns out to be.

 

[fj.torres]

Good point. SpaceX isn't designing a bespoke space station, but they are designing Starship HLS. We don't know much about HLS, though. If they decide to only make a small livable space, then they might not bother using it as a makeshift space station.

You're right, it'll depend on market forces. I think the primary factors are how much it'll cost to convert (and subsequently operate) a Starship, how many companies drop out of the Commercial LEO Destinations program, and how large the LEO economy turns out to be.

The last part is critical.
A lot of the smaller players are in the game purely on speculation that a market will emerge. "Build it and they will pay."
That may not happen as fast as they need.

The same applies to the small launcher space.
There are something like 30 startups globally all gunning for a 10% share of the small satellite business and not all may survive. In fact, none might survive.

It's a darwinian business and the way it is evolving the deciding factors won't be the rocket or habitat itself, but manufacturing economics and pricing.

And the one player who is operating at a sustainable profit is SpaceX. Through Falcon and Starlink, for starters. They are not building systems on speculation but to a clear business plan. There may be madness to their methods but there is method to their madness.

And for all his off the cuff remarks, what Musk doesn't say is more important than what he does say. He talks Mars but not Space Stations, point to point rocket travel on earth but not SSTO, big payloads but not small satellites. Money makers all. And the company that flamethrowers is not knwn for leaving money on the table.

It's going to get real interesting if the next launch succeeds.