Poll: How long before we leave the solar system? Centuries or Millenia?

[willpittenger]

I am talking about men not machines.&nbsp; (You can vote on the later too if you want, but state which is which in your post's title.)&nbsp; Please vote by changing the title of your reply to your vote. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>

 

[baulten]

Depends how you classify leave.&nbsp; I think we'd be capable of building a generation ship that would leave the solar system within a few centuries if it were a case of life or death.&nbsp; However, fast interstellar travel I could see being millenia off for humans.&nbsp; Robots and machines, decades to centuries.&nbsp; Humans, much longer.

 

[Boris_Badenov]

<p>Centuries, maybe less, if we get over our fear of really powerful technologies like Nuclear Power.</p><p>&nbsp;Nuclear Power has to be embraced for Human&nbsp;space travel, exploration & Solar System Colonization before we can advance beyond it. </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[drwayne]

<p>You might want to include a "Never" catgory, depressing as that is....</p><p>I am not being an optimist - well, maybe I am.&nbsp; I am assuming that (a) We don't destroy ourselves and (b) International competition will drive another space race that will make some form of breakthrough.&nbsp; What that is, I can't say I know.</p><p>Wayne</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[neuvik]

<p>I'd probably say in 500 years just maybe.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Theres just too many hurdles we have to overcome.&nbsp;&nbsp; And, our solar system is pretty nifty, lots of resources and things to study.&nbsp; Thats going to take a lot of time.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; But maybe some explorers might push the boundaries and just go.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><strong><font color="#ff0000">I don't think I'm alone when I say, "I hope more planets fall under the ruthless domination of Earth!"</font></strong></p><p><font color="#0000ff">SDC Boards: Power by PLuck - Ph**king Luck</font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>You might want to include a "Never" catgory, depressing as that is....I am not being an optimist - well, maybe I am.&nbsp; I am assuming that (a) We don't destroy ourselves and (b) International competition will drive another space race that will make some form of breakthrough.&nbsp; What that is, I can't say I know.Wayne <br />Posted by drwayne</DIV></p><p>I also vote 'never'.</p><p>Not to be too depressing, but I don't have huge hopes that technology and cultural advances will save humanity from a stagnant future.</p><p>I do think the chance of a bad nuclear war sometime in the next several centuries is actually high.&nbsp; The result will greatly compound the pollution caused by burning off all of our fossil fuels.&nbsp; I do think that our overpopulating world will end up stripping off the rainforests and leave behind a depleted eroded landscape, with awful climatic effects.&nbsp; I also think we will have abused and depleted much of our oceanic food resources.&nbsp; I worry that the cultural behavior of the Chinese and other Asian countries will result in a high rtae of resource depletion with accompanying pollution.&nbsp; As for the population growth itself, I do think that current demographic trends indicate that we&nbsp;may also have&nbsp;a global dysgenic outcome as the&nbsp;more intelligent people have&nbsp;fewer children.</p><p>I do think that over the next several centuries that we will consume our oil, coal&nbsp;and even uranium not have that much to show for it.&nbsp; After we deplete our easy fuels, all we have left is renewable sources.&nbsp; The world economy will stagnate and have to run at a much lower level of production due to energy deficits.</p><p>Leaving our solar system will be extremely difficult.&nbsp; I doubt we will ever invent a 'warp engine'.&nbsp;&nbsp;First we will need to build a massive telescope somewhere in space (farside of the moon?) which can locate earth sized planets and get their atmospheric spectra. Second we would need to send unmanned probes to nearby stars and&nbsp;study liveable planets, and transmit the data back.&nbsp; Third, we would need to build a colony spaceship and send it there.&nbsp; To do this plan would take the resources of our entire planet working together for many centuries to develop the technology, and to build the telescope, the probes, the communication networks, and then the&nbsp;colony spaceship.</p><p>Cutlturally,&nbsp;I do not see a global political vision which would last for many centuries (probably millenia!)&nbsp;to resource and execute the plan above.&nbsp; Given our resource depleted future, people will be whining for food, energy and luxuries, and not want several centuries of the world gnp to be diverted to extrasolar exploration.</p><p>Finally culturally, I see bad trends ahead with the growth of global fundamentalist religious movements, particular islam, but also fundamentalist Christian too.&nbsp; These religions inhibit science, learning, reasoning and logic, and more importantly curiosity.&nbsp; I see demographic trends in which Islam will within one century take over Europe, and continue to spread elsewhere.&nbsp; I worry we will still be fighting religious based conflicts over the next century or two&nbsp;which will distract our planet's populations and resources from pursuing loftier goals.&nbsp; And&nbsp;while we are distracted by these stupidities (Israel,&nbsp;Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc..it ihas already started, but the country list will&nbsp;expand to&nbsp;France, Netherlands, Spain, Greece, England)&nbsp;we will have very significantly depleted our fossil fuels and added more population and pollution.</p><p>Sorry for being so dismal.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[earth_bound_misfit]

<p>I vote never as well.</p><p>I'm with Sillylene. Sadly to say, unless we change our ways drastically, will are all doomed. I feel we have only a couple of generations left and there's no way we'll be out of the Solar System in that time period.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p> </p><p>----------------------------------------------------------------- </p><p>Wanna see this site looking like the old SDC uplink?</p><p>Go here to see how: <strong>SDC Eye saver </strong>  </p> </div>

 

[Rocketwatcher2002]

<p>My bet is that people will be leaving the solar system within 200 years.&nbsp;&nbsp; Looking back on the amazing leap we've made in the past 200 years, I can't help to think that we will continue to keep the trend alive.&nbsp; Either that or we will enter a dark age.&nbsp; I do believe we have begun a stagnation period in terms of "Science", but I think it's going to be short lived, perhaps only a generation or so.&nbsp; I know many old scientists, and a few young ones, and the difference in mantality is&nbsp;black and white.&nbsp; The older scientists,&nbsp;my grandfather being one of them,&nbsp;are of the mindset that&nbsp;the world/universe is a vast toolbox.&nbsp; The younger scientists that I know see the universe as something to protect from mankind's evil/stupid exploitation.&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp;Personally, I see the universe as my own kingdom given to me by God.&nbsp; This kingdom is one I have to share, within reason, with everyone else.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[job1207]

<p>We can leave now if we want to spend several generations in space before we get anywhere. That would require a huge rocket, assembled in space, of the nuclear variety. </p><p>If you want to get somewhere in ONE lifetime, it will require one thing to be true. We would have to learn how to travel fast. As fast as they travel in the movies. If that is possible then we can go as soon as they figure out how to do it.&nbsp; </p>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>We can leave now if we want to spend several generations in space before we get anywhere.&nbsp; <br />Posted by job1207</DIV></p><p>Well not now, in a few decades for design and construction. ANd somebody to pick up the tab.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[JonClarke]

The solar system is a big and interesting place, and the techological challenges to interstellar flight very great. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>

 

[cosmictraveler]

<p>&nbsp;</p><p><font size="4">If physicists could develop a new form of physics that would allo a " worm hole" to be used, humans then could go anywhere in the universe within seconds. Physics as we know it today has evoloved very fast within the past 100 years or so and with new equipment and ideas there really could be a "Star Gate" within a few centuries or even before if we are lucky. I'd think this is a far better way to travel in space than using spacecraft.</font></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>It does not require many words to speak the truth. Chief Joseph</p> </div>

 

[mattblack]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I am talking about men not machines.&nbsp; (You can vote on the later too if you want, but state which is which in your post's title.)&nbsp; Please vote by changing the title of your reply to your vote. <br />Posted by willpittenger</DIV></p><p>I'd say that mankind going to&nbsp;Alpha Centauri or Epsilon&nbsp;Eridani is at least&nbsp;as far in the future as Magellan circumnavigating the Earth is in our past: Ferdinand Magellan and his crew made their voyage nearly 500 years ago -- it'll be at least that long before we can go to another star. Some people might even say 1000 years. Perfecting closed-loop life support systems and fusion&nbsp;propulsion will be the interstellar enablers.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>One Percent of Federal Funding For Space: America <strong><em><u>CAN</u></em></strong> Afford it!!  LEO is a <strong><em>Prison</em></strong> -- It's time for a <em><strong>JAILBREAK</strong></em>!!</p> </div>

 

[qso1]

I'll say centuries bearing in mind its just a guess on my part. I wrote a graphic novel about humans going to Alpha Centauri 148 years from now but that was based on predicating events that have yet to occur if they even do occur. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[JimL]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I am talking about men not machines.&nbsp; (You can vote on the later too if you want, but state which is which in your post's title.)&nbsp; Please vote by changing the title of your reply to your vote. <br /> Posted by willpittenger</DIV></p><p>A century or never.</p><p>If there is no God to intervene we will destroy this planet before we can get off it.</p><p>If there is a God he'll intervene before we destroy it and, therefore, ourselves.</p><p>Of course if there is ANY chance of it actually happening I'd vote for the politicians going first in a "Restaurant at the End of the Universe" scenario.</p>

 

[dragon04]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I am talking about men not machines.&nbsp; (You can vote on the later too if you want, but state which is which in your post's title.)&nbsp; Please vote by changing the title of your reply to your vote. <br /> Posted by willpittenger</DIV></p><p>Barring some serendipitous event or discovery, maybe in 2 or 3 centuries.&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <em>"2012.. Year of the Dragon!! Get on the Dragon Wagon!".</em> </div>

 

[Leovinus]

I think we're dooming ourselves with global warming, overpopulation, or nuclear proliferation->nuclear war and that humankind will be extinct before we ever get that far. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I think we're dooming ourselves with global warming, overpopulation, or nuclear proliferation->nuclear war and that humankind will be extinct before we ever get that far. <br />Posted by Leovinus</DIV></p><p>Sounds like somebody watched "The Last Days on Earth" on the HIstory Channel last night <img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/content/scripts/tinymce/plugins/emotions/images/smiley-wink.gif" border="0" alt="Wink" title="Wink" /><br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[holmec]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I am talking about men not machines.&nbsp; (You can vote on the later too if you want, but state which is which in your post's title.)&nbsp; Please vote by changing the title of your reply to your vote. <br /> Posted by willpittenger</DIV></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>I'll also say centuries, to go into interstellar space.&nbsp; Though it might be sooner if we send a manned craft to loop around the solar system measuring particles and making obeservations in interstellar space only to come back to the solar system.</p><p>To go to another star, that's pretty far away I think. &nbsp;</p><p>1. way too far for our propulsion systems</p><p>2. would probably require a generational ship</p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; a. we would need a very good destintion for a gen ship.&nbsp; A destination we have studied in depth robotically.&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>BTW: is the poll closed, I don't see it.&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off</em></font></p> </div>

 

[qso1]

<p>Hi holmec, haven't seen you posting in awhile, good to see ya back.</p><p>I'm pretty much in agreement with the stars being too far. At least they are too far for present or projected propulsion systems. As for having a good destination, we are just getting started by way of finding extra solar planets. A search that may soon (A decade or two) result in discovery of an earthlike world which I think would give humanity the incentive to speed up the drive to go to another star.</p><p>On your points:</p><p>1...I agree with you and am of the opinion it will have to be propulsion of a type not yet even imagined.</p><p>2...I'm also thinking generational ships because if we find an earthlike world, we will probably want to colonize it.&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[willpittenger]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>BTW: is the poll closed, I don't see it.</p><p>Posted by holmec</DIV><br /><br />The poll is NOT closed.&nbsp; However, I am only counting posts which don't include "Re:" at the beginning.&nbsp; This prevents replies to votes from being included.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>

 

[josh_simonson]

That really depends on what you mean by 'we'.&nbsp; The only practical way to go about getting humans into another solar system using phyics as we know it, would be to send robotic probes with huge banks of DNA (including human) that can reconstitute people if it finds a solar system that's conducive to settlement.&nbsp; I can't see the technology needed for that being much more than 100 years out.&nbsp; Might be a couple hundred more after that before such probes got anywhere though.

 

[centsworth_II]

<p>Centuries or Millenia?&nbsp; No way to know. But I would guess never.</p><p>The technological advances and political will required for such a feat do not follow a predictable path.&nbsp; Discoveries can be made and circumstances arise that can not in any way be predicted.&nbsp; I think the speed of light limit will continue to be a big obstacle to interstellar travel for humans.&nbsp; (Or do you count visiting the Kuiper Belt as leaving the solar system?) </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[willpittenger]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>(Or do you count visiting the Kuiper Belt as leaving the solar system?)</p><p>Posted by centsworth_II</DIV><br />One of the following:</p><ul><li>Reaching the Heliopause and returning</li><li>Going within the outermost orbit for a planet in another system&nbsp;</li></ul> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>

 

[centsworth_II]

<p><font color="#666699"><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>One of the following:Reaching the Heliopause and returningGoing within the outermost orbit for a planet in another system&nbsp; <br /> Posted by willpittenger</DIV><br /></font>Then my prediction is, never.&nbsp; There is no reason to send humans to the heliopause and I don't see the political will ever arising to fund a mission to another star system.&nbsp; A mission that will take the better part of a century at best, and that's one way.&nbsp; </p><p>Maybe the next best thing would be robots as intelligent and autonomous as humans... but a lot smaller.&nbsp; Or even humans on a chip, where an actual human consciousness could be placed in a robot. Either of these would drastically reduce the cost of a mission.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>