Russia not sharing adv. tech w/China

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docm

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http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/12/26/D8M8MI6G0.html<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Russia will cooperate with China on space projects, but will not transfer sensitive technologies that could enable Beijing to become a rival in a future space race, the head of Russia's space agency said Tuesday.<br /><br />Anatoly Perminov, chief of Russia's Federal Space Agency, said Moscow and Beijing would cooperate in robotic missions to the moon. He added, however, that Russia would maintain restrictions on sharing technology. <br /><br /> Russia sold China the technology that formed the basis of its manned space program, which launched its first astronaut in 2003 and two others in 2005. The Chinese Shenzhou spacecraft closely resembles the Russian Soyuz.<br /><br />"The Chinese are still some 30 years behind us, but their space program has been developing very fast," Perminov said at a news conference. "They are quickly catching up with us."<br /><br />The next Chinese manned space flight is due next year. China also wants to send up a space station and land a robot probe on the moon by 2010.<br /><br />Perminov said that Russia would cooperate with China in space exploration strictly within the framework of a bilateral agreement that doesn't envisage exporting Russian space technologies.<br /><br />"We aren't transferring any technologies to China now," Perminov said. "This issue has been under special control of the government."<br /> /><br /><b><i>After decades of rivalry, Moscow and Beijing have developed what they call a strategic partnership since the 1991 Soviet collapse, pledging their adherence to a "multipolar world," a term that refers to their opposition to the perceived U.S. domination. China also has become a top customer for Russia's weapons industries, purchasing billions of dollars worth of jets, missiles, submarines and destroyers.<br /><br />But despit</i></b></p></blockquote> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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extropiandreams

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First of all while russia's population is falling rapidly, it's falling at 600.000 this year. This year has been the best one from a demographic point of view in the last seven years. There is a unique program that starts in 2007 giving 10.000 $ for each second or subsequent born child, as well as a lot of other measures to increase birth rate and to bring russian from abroad home.<br /><br />Second there is no official data confirming millions of chinese emigrants in russia. There are millions of chinese in russia, guest workers and traders for example. But most of them go home after that. The demographic situation in the far east is in fact a big problem, but as people go where the money is the new siberia-pazific pipeline and other energy projects might help the siuation. I don't believe in mass imigration to east siberia simply because siberia is not hawai, it's vast but very cold, and life really isn't easy there. <br /><br />A conflict between china and russia is extremly unlikely, the consequences would be so extrem even globally(since both countrys have nuclear weapons, and other means of mass destruction), that i don't believe that anybody would really consider that. Imaging just a couple of destroyed nuclear reactors, or a destroyed "Three Gorges Dam" alone would hold tens of millions of chinese at risk. And Russia is selling their resources to china anyway, so there is no reason for hostile relations between them. China might even be the great chance for the russian far east for economic growth and revival.<br /><br />I believe the decision to stop selling most advanced technologies has the reason to allow the russian military industrial complex to stay ahead of them, which has, as i believe more the reason to hold russian products in the military and space sector more competitive.
 
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docm

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Looking at this from a historical perspective: a nation of growing population & resource needs expands into underpopulated/underutilized areas of another once the internal pressure builds.<br /><br />Just ask the Native Americans, parts of the former Ottoman Empire, former European colonies etc. <br /><br />Heck, there are even moves to turn the US, Canada and Mexico into a North American version of the EU based on the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America (SPP) treaty of 2005 complete with a common currency. Who do you think benefits from that?<br /><br />Fact: Eastern Russia is depopulating.<br /><br />Fact: China isn't by any stretch of imagination. They need new cities & have few places to put them.<br /><br />Fact: Nature, especially political nature, abhors a vacuum.<br /><br />Fact: Chinas government is potentially expansionist (see above) & in most matters don't care what others think of their actions. <br /><br />Fact: Russian governments are habitually xenophobic, especially this one. <br /><br />Not a good combination. <br /><br />They <i><b>may</b></i> end up around a campfire singing Cumbayah, but I sincerely doubt it in the long term. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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extropiandreams

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China now has a fertility rate of about 1.6 or 1.7 which is below the replacement rate of 2.1.Since urbanisation in china is increasing and more and more people live a "western" life expect fertility to fall further. In about 40 years the chinese population will also start to fall. China is the fourth largest country in the world, that's not small. You can't look at it from a historical perspective because there were no atom bombs and no biological warfare. And, as i said, china can simply buy the resources anyway. <br /><br />Siberia was all the time depolulated. There were never many people there. They only went there for resources, big loans or strategic reasons like vladivostok to have a port in the pacific. It's a bit like the antarctica.<br /><br />Chinas government seems to me as they would like to have good relations with anyone - ok there's taiwan but taiwan is chinese - just with a different government. i would not call the taiwan issue an expansionist one. <br /><br />China is a superpower in economical sense - but they live from exports and any crises of this scale would have devasting consequences for the world economy and for the chinese. <br /><br />The far east isn't a land where you can simply enter, there are only a a couple of streets and railways, there are many towns and villages which can only be reached by helicopter. There's only ice and marsh, not exactly the kind of enviroment for a huge army to simply move in. How would you provide food there for an army of millions of men ? And then there is the Napoleon and Hitler argument - Just the harsh enviroment can destroy an entire army, and they came from europe, and never reached siberia, where conditions are much more difficult. Hitler didn't even want to go to siberia, he wanted to stop at the urals. The Europeans, Japan, South Korea and in the future even the us need russian resources, i don't believe they would stand still. <br /><br />Destroyed cities like shanghai and peking full of radioation which
 
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