Russian scientists warn of asteroid impact hazard in 2035

[dmitry]

"ST. PETERSBURG, October 20 (RIA Novosti) - Astronomers at Russia's largest observatory said Friday an asteroid now orbiting the sun may strike the Earth in 2035, but that the odds of a catastrophic collision can be estimated only 22 years from now. <br /><br />"We cannot rule out the possibility of an asteroid, currently orbiting the sun, striking the Earth in 2035," said Sergei Smirnov, spokesman for St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Observatory. "But how much of a threat [this asteroid actually presents] will be impossible to assess until 2028, when it approaches our planet." <br /><br />Flying in close proximity to the Earth will alter the asteroid's orbit, and scientists believe the extent of that shift will give them a clue as to the likelihood of future impacts, fraught with disastrous consequences for terrestrial life. <br /><br />"[Celestial] bodies measuring 100 meters across or more are deemed dangerous," Smirnov said. "Such bodies, comparable in size to the Tunguska meteorite [that impacted Siberia in 1908], could cause a disaster on a regional scale in the event of an impact." <br /><br />But the space rock expected to near the Earth in 2028 is about a kilometer in diameter, so if it does strike, our planet will face a continental disaster and major climate change. <br /><br />"And if the asteroid falls into an ocean, the disaster could assume global proportions," warned Smirnov."<br />- - -<br /> Source: RIAN<br /><br />So this is clearly explains that we need to continue living not simple but very saturated lives. We shall be happy & satisfied by every moment living our lifes, no matter who we are. Money won't save us, let's save ourselves till we have enough of time. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br />& Let's cross the fingers to scientists who will make a decission of how to destroy that cosmic <i>**deliberate bypassing of profanity filter deleted**</i><br /><br />Cherrio,<br /><br />Dmit

 

[witgenestone]

Is it is Apophis or did they find a new one? I thought neo obervations was an international effort.

 

[search]

Since they do not mention which one I believe they are refering to Asteroid 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) but not sure. It is a deduction from the following news last year. <br /><br />From:<br />Created: 03.10.2005 16:38 MSK (GMT +3), Updated: 16:38 MSK:<br />http://mosnews.com/news/2005/10/03/asteroid.shtml<br />A scientific conference dedicated to asteroid and comet security opened in the Practical Astronomy Institute in St. Petersburg on Monday, Russian news agencies report. One of its participants said that the 2004 MN4 asteroid could hit Earth in 2035, wiping out all life on the planet. One of the scientists taking part in the conference, Viktor Shor of the Practical Astronomy Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that at present many experts see a real threat of Earth’s collision with the 2004 MN 4 asteroid. Initially the collision was predicted for 2028, but the latest calculations show that in 2028 the asteroid will only pass very close to Earth. However, Shor says that his research predicts that the asteroid’s orbit could change and it may return in seven years this time crashing into the Earth’s surface. <br /><br />Risk assessment:<br />http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?riskpage:0;main<br />Near-Earth Asteroid (99942) Apophis [2004 MN4]: current status <br /><br />The asteroid (99942) Apophis (previously designated as 2004 MN4) will have a very close approach to Earth in 2029. The observations collected in the months of December 2004 and January 2005 by professional and amateur astronomers have provided enough information to exclude the possibility of an impact in 2029. At the end of January 2005, radar observations performed at Arecibo have led to a substantial improvement of the orbit; as a consequence, the list of post-2029 Virtual Impactors has changed. The coworkers of NE

 

[search]

That was a close one. <br />Thinking the same at the same time.<br /><br />Impact risk:<br />http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/<br /><br />The following table lists potential future Earth impact events that the JPL Sentry System has detected based on currently available observations. Click on the object designation to go to a page with full details on that object.<br /><br />Sentry is a highly automated collision monitoring system that continually scans the most current asteroid catalog for possibilities of future impact with Earth over the next 100 years. Whenever a potential impact is detected it will be analyzed and the results immediately published here, except in unusual cases where an IAU Technical Review is underway. <br /><br />As you can see according with the Torino Scale no problem for the known NEOs and for the Palermo Scale only 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) approaches -2 but remaining out. (Actual scale values less than -2 reflect events for which there are no likely consequences, while Palermo Scale values between -2 and 0 indicate situations that merit careful monitoring).

 

[witgenestone]

He said that the news was from 20.october.<br />It would be strange if it wasn't already listed. The dates matches very well with our apophis rendevouz'. <br /><br />Maybe it just might be pravda or Nikolai Fedorovsky again.<br /><br />Or perhaps they in fact have discovered a new one. He specifically said it was about 1 km. That is larger than apophis. <br /><br />Time will tell.

 

[search]

Could be. Just find dates too coincidental

 

[silylene old]

We have another big thread on this subject, just do a search. Not need starting new threads.<br /><br />New data has shown the risk is minimal, and this asteroid was downgraded to Torino Scale 0 a few months ago.<br /><br />Don't worry, the sky isn't falling down! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[alokmohan]

Date is too far for many of us to worry.But too many things are coming on same topic.Asteroid impact is popular with astronomers and astrolgers .Astrologers earn much.

 

[MeteorWayne]

I'd give it more credence if it told us what the identity of the asteroid is. Then we could check with CBAT (Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams) and the MPC (Minor Planet Center) to assess the risk.<br /><br />If you see the official designation of the asteroid, please let us know.<br /><br />MW <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[witgenestone]

It would indeed be strange if we had two close encouters at the same year. It would also be strange if this guy knew it before anyone here did I guess.<br /><br />What now about the russian astronomers reputation?

 

[kheider]

Sometimes reporters get their facts wrong! <img src="/images/icons/shocked.gif" /><br /><br />See (2907) Nekrasov<br /><br />-- Kevin Heider

 

[search]

2907 or 29075... poor guy just missed a number and 845 years...<br /><br />(29075) or 1950 DA<br /><br />Well so far the highest probability for impact is still 1950 DA but that is in 2880 so I do no expect to see it coming but this was discussed in another thread.<br />

 

[witgenestone]

If they indeed saw apophis at 20. october they did a very good job calculating the close encounters.

 

[Anonymous]

Hmmmmmmm... I hope we will have smart scientists then, to fight it.<br />As said, Where there is a will there is a way!<br />I would like to be one of them! Ha!<br />Well the problem yet creates a criteria. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <strong><font size="2"><p align="center"><br /><img id="a9529085-d63d-481e-9277-832ea5d58917" src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/Content/images/store/9/2/a9529085-d63d-481e-9277-832ea5d58917.Large.gif" alt="blog post photo" /><br /><font color="#339966">Oops! this is my alien friend.</font></p><p align="center"><font color="#ff6600">╬→Ť╠╣є ’ M€ ’<br />╬→ Ðôŵņ2Ëãřŧĥ ๑<br />╬→ ЙДm€ :Varsha<br /></font></p></font></strong> </div>

 

[mikeemmert]

Thank you, SEARCH.<br /><br />I notice the paper you linked (or sublinked) noted the Yarkovsky effect as the major uncertainty in calculating 1950 DA's orbit:<br /><br />"<font color="yellow">The Yarkovsky effect is a force felt by a body caused by the anisotropic emission of thermal photons, which carry momentum. It is usually considered in relation to meteoroids or small asteroids (about 10 cm to 10 km in diameter), as its influence is most significant for these bodies.<br /><br />The effect was discovered by the Russian civil engineer Ivan Osipovich Yarkovsky (1844–1902), who worked on scientific problems in his spare time. Writing in a pamphlet around the year 1900, Yarkovsky noted that the diurnal heating of a rotating object in space would cause it to experience a force that, while tiny, could lead to large long-term effects in the orbits of small bodies, especially meteoroids and small asteroids...<br /><br />...In a nutshell, the Yarkovsky effect is a consequence of the time needed for the surface to warm up or cool down. In general there are two components to the effect:<br /><br />Diurnal effect: On a rotating body (e.g. an asteroid) illuminated by the Sun, as on the Earth, the surface is warmer in the afternoon and early night, than in the morning and late night. The result is that more heat is radiated on the "dusk" side than the "dawn" side, leading to a net radiation pressure thrust in the opposite "dawn" direction. For prograde rotators, this is in the direction of motion on their orbit, and causes their semi-major axis to steadily increase, spiraling away from the Sun. Retrograde rotators spiral inward. This is the dominant component for larger bodies greater than about 100 m diameter.<br /><br />Seasonal effect: This is easiest to understand for the idealised case of a non-rotating body orbiting the Sun, for which each "year" consists of exactly one "day". As it travels around its orbit, th</font>