Right now we're still groping our way finding out what works and what doesn't but we've added finances and profits as a third dimension. I would guess that capsules are probably cheaper and simpler, not as tricky and there's less that can go wrong, sort of like balloons and airships versus the early airplanes. But we are definitely heading for a next-generation Space Shuttle equipped with scramjet technology that can take off and land from an airport. Right now that technology is just a little bit out of reach--but we're getting there.
The $200,000 tickets provide the funds for the launch vehicles that will only cost $50,000 which we'll probably see sometime between 2015 (doubt it) and 2020 (near certainty) while somebody will probably be selling trips to the Moon for $200,000. By 2030 we should see $5,000 tickets and $50,000 will get you the Moon. $1,000 tickets by 2040. We could probably go straight to the $1,000-ticket launch vehicle as early as 2025 since we will have figured out most of what we need to know by then--but we will have just built and bought the $50,000 variety and they've got to pay for themselves first. It will be prudent to go to the $5,000-ticket model next because we will barely have trained, experienced personnel, accommodations, and facilities for the business that will bring so we won't be ready for the the $1,000 model till 2040. By 2050 the person who hasn't been to LEO will be like the person who has never flown is today while a trip to the Moon will be as common as a flight across the ocean is today. By 2050 trips to Mars and elsewhere will have more to do with how much time you have than money.