Tiny, bright flashes on the sun could help scientists predict solar flares

[Admin]

Tiny but bright flashes in the sun's corona that precede solar flares could help astronomers predict when the next one might occur.

Tiny, bright flashes on the sun could help scientists predict solar flares : Read more

 

[Helio]

Odd that it’s taken this long to see this likely important correlation. I didn’t easily find if flare strengths also correlated.

 

[billslugg]

Possible reasons they didn't see this before:
1) Predominately at a particular wavelength
2) Short lived
3) Small scale

From the abstract of the article:
"The 94 Å filter data provide the most parameters with discriminating power, with indications that it benefits from sampling multiple physical regimes. In particular, classification success using higher-order moments of running-difference images indicate a propensity for flare-imminent regions to display short-lived small-scale brightening events. "

Previously known relations to flare strength:
1)Total emission performs well
2) Steeply increasing/decreasing brightness performs well
3) Active region size performs well
4) Mean brightness does not perform well

"Total emission can perform notably, as can steeply increasing or decreasing brightness, although mean brightness measures do not, demonstrating the well-known active-region size/flare productivity relation."



Properties of Flare-imminent versus Flare-quiet Active Regions from the Chromosphere through the Corona. II. Nonparametric Discriminant Analysis Results from the NWRA Classification Infrastructure (NCI) - IOPscience

 

[Helio]

I ask because this seems like it could be another area amateurs could data mine (visually) to help warn of flares.

 

[billslugg]

The teltale wavelength of 94 Angstroms is in the extreme UV/soft Xray area. Earth's atmosphere is not transparent at that wavelength.

 

[Helio]

The teltale wavelength of 94 Angstroms is in the extreme UV/soft Xray area. Earth's atmosphere is not transparent at that wavelength.

Right, that's why I mentioned the idea of a "data mine" effort as these images should be available from SDO.