Astrochimp":2fqkfajl said:
What have we learned from the ISS?
We have, in my opinion, learned four main things. These are:
1) Man can survive in a zero gravity environment for extended periods of time. The Russians have had one or more cosmonauts on orbit for a year or better.
So far, we have no data on survival in a zero-gravity environment beyond 6 months. One person does not represent a statistical universe which we can use to make judgments with. Also, we have never had anyone exposed to solar radiation outside the Van Allen belts for more than a 10 days. We have not ever been able to examine structures which have been in that environment for prolonged periods of time, so we can not be sure if they have become radioactive, lost mass, or in some other way degraded.
Astrochimp":2fqkfajl said:
2) International cooperation on long duration space flight is possible and actually is going to be necessary.
International cooperation is necessary, period. Here on Earth, in space, everywhere. Our survival depends upon it.
Astrochimp":2fqkfajl said:
3) We have learned that we can build and repair large-scale structures in space. This will be necessary if we are to build a Mars bound space ship.
So far, we have done little more than put Lego blocks together. Prefabricated modules, complete in themselves, are far different than assembling components which must fit together to make a structure. Only a few connections are required to hook a new module to the International Space Station. A spacecraft is going to require hundreds of wiring connections and plumbing connections between each deck. Before we pack up and head for Mars, we would be wise to spend some time testing our spacecraft closer to Earth, or at least where return times are not measured in years. By the time that we get around to building a Mars explorer vessel, we will have assembled numerous space stations, probably a lunar shuttle, and possibly a Near-Earth Object investigation craft or two.
Astrochimp":2fqkfajl said:
4) We are going to need some sort of heavy lift capability, whether it is from NASA, ESA, JAXA, ROSCOSMOS, Indian, or Chinese made if we are going to leave for Mars in the next ten to twenty years.
We are going to need some sort of heavy lift capability if we are going to do ANYTHING in space. However, the number of launches of such a vehicle type to support the coming industrial revolution will make the purchase of capacity for the Mars mission much cheaper than if the vehicle were built specifically for one or two launches to put a Mars spacecraft in orbit.
What we are learning on the ISS is how to process materials in zero-gravity, and what the effects of zero-gravity are on reactions that are commonly used in industry. For instance, a match will not burn in zero-gravity, because the combustion products do not rise, pulling in more oxygen to support the combustion. The flame creates a sphere of waste products, and then dies down. Oil and water can be mixed and remain mixed in zero-gravity. Very pure crystals of extraordinary size can be grown in zero-gravity.
The things that we are learning on the ISS don't get much press, but they are crucial in making the future possible, because they will be the foundation of new industries. These new industries will create immense wealth, which will generate demand for launch capacity far in excess of anything we have ever seen. The cost of doing things in space will come down drastically, to the point where a private mission to Mars will become feasible. Then all you folks can go away and lets us make money.
Astrochimp":2fqkfajl said:
Personally, I would like to see it happen in the next 10 years. I think that with full international cooperation it will be possible, but the partners will need to set aside their political differences, and get their heads out of their posteriors and work together on this goal.
Ad astra per ardua!
I am merely hoping that we still have access to space ten years from now. If the economy gets much worse, no one is going to be going up there, Russian, Chinese, American, or Polish. We cannot set aside our political differences to even take steps that the financial system does not borrow and trade the world into depression. For some reason, I doubt that sending people to Mars will be high on the lists of most nations, unless those people are extremely offensive. Creating new wealth, protecting the environment, and feeding people is likely to be what is the focus of most world leaders for the next 20 to 30 years. If we are still around.
The ISS was not built to prove that we can send people to Mars. It was built at to allow science to investigate the predominate environment of the Cosmos. Planets are a statistical fluke in the big scheme of things. Learning to survive in space means 'in space', not on another planet. In space, we can create our environments, rather than having to try to adapt them, or adapt TO them.