Which star will be the firstcoming supernova?

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remcot

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What will be the best candidate? Normally every 100 years a supernova can be seen ,but it is more than 400! years ago when we have seen the last visible supernova in (our) galaxy and that is far too long ago. Why is that? And my question is ,what are the candidates and what are the (best) nearby candidates? And my last 2 questions: How bright will Betelgeuse or Antares be when they exploding as a supernova? What will be the visible magnitude then? And how bright will the blue supergiant star of Cygnus x1 at 7500 lightyears away (Betelgeuse 400 lightyear) be when it explodes as a supernova? Can you explain this interesting things? Big thanks. remcot
 
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remcot

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Can you give reactions please? Why is it so quiet on the forum? Thank you.
 
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vogon13

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Sorry, long holiday weekend in the US. Pretty good weather across the nation has folks outdoors instead of inside posting to SDC.<br /><br />A guess for your question?<br /><br />How about eta Carinii.<br /><br />(probably botched the spelling, and my big astronomy book is downstairs . . . )<br /><br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#ff0000"><strong>TPTB went to Dallas and all I got was Plucked !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#339966"><strong>So many people, so few recipes !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#0000ff"><strong>Let's clean up this stinkhole !!</strong></font> </p> </div>
 
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qso1

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The two closest probable candidates I'm aware of that astronomers believe have the best chance of blowing are Eta Carinae (7,500 Ly) and Betelgeuse (400 + Ly). Of course, there will always be the unexpected suprise possibility but within 10,000Ly I don't think there are too many candidates.<br /><br />Cygnus X1 would probably be similar to Eta Car in brightness which in our skies would probably be brighter than Sirius, possibly bright enough to be a daytime star in early morning or late afternoon evening hours. Same will probably hold true for Betelgeuse except the guese will be brighter than X-1 or Eta Car if it goes full blown all at once. If the Guese goes like Eta Car seems to be, it might not be quite as spectacular. By that, I'm refering to Eta Carinaes 1830 brightnening in which it briefly outshown Sirius IIRC. This type of scenario suggests supernova may not explode all at once except in the most violent cases. Eta Car may brighten several more times over the next couple of centuries then do one final bang. Or it may blow all at once with an even bigger bang.<br /><br />From some research I did last year, Betelgeuse could be fatal to astronauts if it went supernova. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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qso1

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I did a visual interpretation last year based on an Eta Carinae scenario where Betelguese blows some, subsides, decades later to go again. It was part of a graphic novel I was working on. <br /><br /><i>**Your image is too wide for the normal post window. Please resubmit it no wider than 700 pixels**</i> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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alokmohan

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In 1987 a suprnova was seen fom earth of star sanduleek.It is referred as SN 1987A
 
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7lives

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"In 1987 a suprnova was seen fom earth of star sanduleek.It is referred as SN 1987A "<br /><br />I believe that was in another galaxy, a companion of the Wilky Way. <br /><br />Interesting topic.
 
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remcot

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How will it look when Betelgeuse has exploded as a supernova at a clear night when you go outside? What kind of experience will that be? Question 2 ,What will be the brightness and experience of a supernova at 1 lightyear distance? What will happen with the darkness at night when a Supernova explodes at 1 lightyear? Will that be a pretty and beautifull experience? I think yes ,it will be very nice and fantastic. Am i right with that thought? Can you try to answer this questions? And goodnight for now. remcot
 
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qso1

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7lives:<br />I believe that was in another galaxy, a companion of the Wilky Way.<br /><br />Me:<br />Correct, it was in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) satellite galaxie. IIRC about 170,000 Ly distant.<br /><br />I was trying to post my image, they changed the height requirement so I have to crop it a bit. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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qso1

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remcot:<br />How will it look when Betelgeuse has exploded as a supernova...<br /><br />Me:<br />Thats the image I have to crop to fit the boards image size. I'll probably get to it later. In a full supernova event, I expect Betelgeuse could be about a third as bright as a full moon and shouldn't have much effect on our existence. It would last anywhere from a few hours to a few weeks. It could be hazardous to astronauts in orbit.<br /><br />If there were a star at 1 Ly distance that went supernova, it would be many times brighter than a full moon, possibly causing the Earths night to be the equivalent of daylight under thunderclouds and it will probably be a pretty, beautiful, and deadly experience for all. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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qso1

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Gonna try this again. Apparently, SDC has recently made a change to how large an image can be pixel wise. I always posted my 800 X 500 images no problem long as they were less than 100K in size. Now I have to crop any existing images I post. This one was easy but I had to slide the image over to the left and shorten the width to 600 pixels.<br /><br />The image itself is from a graphic novel series I recently finished which is why there is a word balloon in the image. Its also based as best I can interpret, on a partial supernova event rather than full blown. Even a full blown supernova would only be maybe twice the brightness for a star at this distance. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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qso1

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I'm not sure I understand your question but here goes.<br /><br />The image depicts my interpretation based on the best knowledge from scientists I can find. It also depicts a theory I have that suggests not all supernova events end in a single massive bang. This is a depiction of a smaller initial blast which will be followed by several more over a period of centuries, perhaps even millinia before the final bang ends the stars existence as we know it. What is shown in the image is Betelgeuse as viewed just above the ocean horizon (Florida east coast)at night. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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remcot

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Here are some questions again ,Question 1 ,How will it look outside when it is clear ,and a supernova has exploded and shines at magnitude -13.91 ,1 magnitude brighter than a full Moon (-12.41) Will it be a very bright point then? Question 2 ,And how will it look outside at a clear night and on a clear sunny summer(afternoon) when a Supernova has exploded (hypothetical) and shines at magnitude - 19.98? In comparison the Sun is shining on Pluto at magnitude -18.68. Can you try to answer and explain this questions (apart)? A lot of thanks. remcot
 
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remcot

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Can you give reactions please? This are for me (interesting) questions. Thank you
 
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remcot

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Give reactions please. Why no reactions? Is it because nobody is on the forum ,or is it because there is no interest ,or is it that people have other things to do. I am asking this because the thread is sinking (out of site) nothing more than that. Thanks
 
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remcot

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I will make a correction ,out of site must be out of sight.
 
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vogon13

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{you can click on the 'Who's Online' below the ad space to see how many folks are logged on. There are times when I have seen 3, and other times with 30. Don't worry about the anonymous ones (the lurkers) they cannot post. There were 300+ the other day! When site is slow, you might have to wait a while for a response. Good time to go check out the enormous compendium of world knowledge stored here}<br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#ff0000"><strong>TPTB went to Dallas and all I got was Plucked !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#339966"><strong>So many people, so few recipes !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#0000ff"><strong>Let's clean up this stinkhole !!</strong></font> </p> </div>
 
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doubletruncation

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For a supernova that is 1 magnitude brighter than the full moon, I think you could roughly expect the sky brightness to be about 1 magnitude brighter than the full moon value. Outside of the city, the full-moon sky brightness is typically about 18 mag/arcsec, so I think if such a supernova went off the sky brightness would be about 17 mag/arcsec. I believe that's a little brighter than the night sky from the suberbs of most cities, it would be roughly as bright as it is directly overhead when the sun is 10 degrees below the horizon (depending on where you're located, but that's typically like 40 minutes after sunset). This is really just order of magnitude, to calculate in detail what the brightness distribution would look like (i.e. how bright it is in the halo around the object, and how bright 90 degrees from the object and so on) is quite a bit more involved. If there were a supernova at ~-20, I could be wrong, but a similar estimate would suggest that you'd get ~-10.5 mag/square arcsecond for the sky background. That'd be roughly what the brightness of the sky directly overhead a little after sunset looks like (the sky would be roughly that bright near the object and then darker away from the object, so you'll have to use your imagination to figure out what that looks like).<br /><br />I think in either case you can expect the object to cast shadows (even the full moon casts shadows when you're in a dark location). <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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