Who was it who claimed...?

[gunsandrockets]

I've been racking my brain (and trying the search function) to find the person who made a rather dramatic claim here sometime within the last year.<br /><br />Before the shuttle returned to flight this year, when there all kinds of flight delays, this person claimed the shuttle would fly less than a total of four times before it was retired from service. For the world of me I can't remember who said this. Does anyone else remember?

 

[qso1]

I don't recall that but I was probably thinking the same thing you were. Once shuttle gets several missions under its belt, reactivate that thread and do the old "We told ya so". I pulled for the shuttle and explained that there was no technical reason it couldn't fly six missions annually if required. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[j05h]

Several of us made similiar claims. I'm not sure who specifically you are thinking of, but I'm sure someone wrote it. I'd guess that the sequence flies like this: three increasingly-confident flights with nominal performance followed by a serious problem on #4, then stand-down. I hope it doesn't happen, NASA has a chance to really shine or really screw themselves over the next few years.<br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[vogon13]

I figured all the new external cameras were going to show something scary every flight, and delays would multiply exponentially. The entire launch decision chain would be keyed to a "when in doubt, don't launch" mindset. This STS sytem has too many gotchas, and some of the big LOV failures envisioned prior to the 1st launch have yet to bobble a flight.<br /><br />I would be happy to be wrong, but we don't have 4 flights yet, and it is almost 2007 . . . .<br /><br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#ff0000"><strong>TPTB went to Dallas and all I got was Plucked !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#339966"><strong>So many people, so few recipes !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#0000ff"><strong>Let's clean up this stinkhole !!</strong></font> </p> </div>

 

[gunsandrockets]

So it was you?

 

[radarredux]

> <i><font color="yellow">this person claimed the shuttle would fly less than a total of four times before it was retired from service. ... Does anyone else remember?</font>/i><br /><br />Similar statements have been made by a number of people; although, certain people have been more vociferous than others. Was spacefire one of them?<br /><br />For my part, I have made similar claims, but with caveats. For example, the shuttle would fly less than 4 flights or all the flights. That is, after a few flights there would be a determination that it was fundamentally unsafe ("unsafe at any speed") and should be retired, or it was fundamentally safe and normal flight schedule would resume.<br /><br />So far, the latter seems to be what is happening. The next big milestone, IMHO, is return to night launches.</i>

 

[flynn]

I had a bet with Shuttleguy and ShuttleRTF that the shuttle wouldn't fly 3 times in '06.<br /><br />Things arn't looking good though. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#800080">"All God does is watch us and kill us when we get boring. We must never, ever be boring" - <strong>Chuck Palahniuk</strong>.</font> </div>

 

[JonClarke]

This illustrates that extreme pessimism is as likely to be wrong as extreme optimism.<br /><br />Jon <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>

 

[flynn]

I wouldn't call it extreme pessimism, there were only ever 3 flights scheduled for '06 the last being in December I don't think it was a bad bet or overtly pessimistic that after the delays we witnessed in '05 to suggest that something might of happened to slip the schedule by a month or so. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#800080">"All God does is watch us and kill us when we get boring. We must never, ever be boring" - <strong>Chuck Palahniuk</strong>.</font> </div>