Why China will be the pre-eminent space power

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asj2006

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Reading old SF novels and stories is enlightening. When the British Empire was ascendant, many of the stories projected that the British would be the pre-eminent space nation, just as today many stories postulate that the USA will be the future space power. But I believe the reality is different, and that there are several factors that will make China the largest space exploring nation in the near future.<br /><br />- China has the money to spend on space exploration and conquest. Its economy is chugging along as the fastest growing large country in the world, its foreign reserves just topped $1 trillion, and it is (along with Japan) keeping the USA afloat by buying US government bonds. It is already the largest consumer nation in many consumer and industrial goods, and is probably the largest producer of most industrial and consumer goods as well. Its economy will be larger than everyone else in the next few years or decades.<br /><br />- China is leap-frogging the necessary technology barriers by cooperating with Russia.<br /><br />http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110900388.html<br /><br />- Because of the large economic opportunities in China, Chinese scientists (and academics) are going back to invest in China in very large numbers after studying here in the USA. In a few decades, some of the top research labs in the world will probably be in East Asia.<br /><br />- In the early 1400s, China possessed the most advanced and largest navy fleet in the world (commanded by Zheng He), but it decided to turn inward instead and scrapped their fleet. Because of this, Europe dominated the seas for the next couple centuries. China learned its lesson and has shown a strong urge to explore space.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>------------------------------------------- </p><p>"Breathe. This is like most of the choices you have in life. <br />You know inside whether it's right. <br />Whether you do it is up to you." </p><p>From the Tao of Willie Nelson</p> </div>
 
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mithridates

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I agree that China might be the pre-eminent space nation in the future, but it's just as likely that it will be India for many of the same reasons you've outlined. Both of them have yet to put probes into the Solar System that return interesting data (the only venture that impresses me as satellites & LEO human spaceflight = snore), but that will be coming soon. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>----- </p><p>http://mithridates.blogspot.com</p> </div>
 
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elguapoguano

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While it is possible, it is somewhat improbable. China's manned space progress is proceeding at a snails pace. Can you imagine the backlash NASA would get if they launched a manned mission once every three years and considered that amazing progress? When the US's stuff is down for two years (1986-1988, 2003-2005) we consider canceling it cause of a lack of progress... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#ff0000"><u><em>Don't let your sig line incite a gay thread ;>)</em></u></font> </div>
 
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ldyaidan

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I wouldn't be at all suprised, especially with their new deal they have with Russia. The next few years should prove very interesting.<br /><br />Rae
 
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asj2006

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India has to surmount some problems before it can be a major space player.<br /><br />India is several times poorer per capita than China. People who have been to both India and China are almost always struck by the difference - whereas India is a miasma of poverty and very poor infrastructure, with people even sleeping on the streets and beggars all over, China has a much better infrastructure and poverty is not as evident even in the farthest provinces.<br /><br />Secondly, although India is growing economically at a rapid rate, this growth rate is from a much lower absolute base level and in addition is lower than China's growth rate.<br /><br />Thus, India has much less capital to work with in terms of exploring space.<br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>------------------------------------------- </p><p>"Breathe. This is like most of the choices you have in life. <br />You know inside whether it's right. <br />Whether you do it is up to you." </p><p>From the Tao of Willie Nelson</p> </div>
 
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spacelifejunkie

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asj2006, <br /><br />You make some excellent points. The Chinese economy is growing and your comments about them buying up US bonds is not only true but disturbing to me as an American. I do not believe, however, that China will lead into the solar system. Communist governments that deny basic human rights to their citizens is an inferior form of rule. History has proven this. China is relaxing their iron grip and thus we see their economic prowess as of late. But, the USA has an extreme head start in space technology. If it weren't for the VSE and the recent renaissance in private aerospace ventures like SpaceX, VirginGalactic and others I would be much more inclined to believe in China's ambitions. "Flags and Footprints" are over and it is now time for corporations to start making money in space. It will be slow and steady for a while but the next generation of technology (nanotech, computers, etc.) will spur an economic expansion into the solar system. But it will be done with democracies and capatilists, not communists and national prestige.<br /><br />SLJ
 
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asj2006

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"While it is possible, it is somewhat improbable. China's manned space progress is proceeding at a snails pace. "<br /><br />The Chinese tend to proceed slowly and carefully, but at a steady pace, unlike NASA which pretty much went downhill after the moon landings. With its huge budget deficits and war spending, I'm not sure the USA can AFFORD to spend so much on space, unlike China. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>------------------------------------------- </p><p>"Breathe. This is like most of the choices you have in life. <br />You know inside whether it's right. <br />Whether you do it is up to you." </p><p>From the Tao of Willie Nelson</p> </div>
 
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asj2006

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"I do not believe, however, that China will lead into the solar system. Communist governments that deny basic human rights to their citizens is an inferior form of rule. History has proven this. China is relaxing their iron grip and thus we see their economic prowess as of late."<br /><br />I believe you're mixing up economic factors and political ones. China has become very capitalistic (so the term "communism" is sometimes not applicable), but it is a one-party state, and will probably remain so for a long time. <br /><br />Also note that having one-party systems (and even dictatorships) do not necessarily translate into scientific or economic stagnation. In the past, most nations were "one-party" (read kingdoms or empires) systems but this did not prevent them from becoming supreme. Even today, such dictatorships as Singapore have some of the highest living standards and advanced societies (compared to democracies like the Philippines, for example).<br /><br />In the end, political factors are less important than economic ones (or even military ones) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>------------------------------------------- </p><p>"Breathe. This is like most of the choices you have in life. <br />You know inside whether it's right. <br />Whether you do it is up to you." </p><p>From the Tao of Willie Nelson</p> </div>
 
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flynn

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I think you miss an important factor, I don't think China would derail or delay their program in the event of losing a mission / crew.<br /><br />I think they will make mistakes along the way but will react very differently than NASA when they do, I'm not commenting on what is right and wrong just remarking at the difference. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#800080">"All God does is watch us and kill us when we get boring. We must never, ever be boring" - <strong>Chuck Palahniuk</strong>.</font> </div>
 
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jtkirk1701

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with russia's help, tech stolen from us, and russian rockets. they beat us back to the moon by years.
 
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spacelifejunkie

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"I believe you're mixing up economic factors and political ones. China has become very capitalistic (so the term "communism" is sometimes not applicable), but it is a one-party state, and will probably remain so for a long time." <br /><br />Fair point. Their recent capatalistic tendencies have put a lot of pressure on their withering communistic rule. Even the old Chinese communistic hardliners from the Cold War Era are beginning to see the merits in decentralized rule as well as decentralized economics. In fact I remember reading how local governments in China are quietly dissaccociating themselves from Beijing and are allowed to get away with it because of the revenue they bring to the government. China may not be communist in the future. But I still maintain that NASA and the American entrepeneur will prevail. I believe that it will prevail despite the American public's disinterest in space as whole right now. That can quickly change, however. Thanks ASJ2006 for keeping me on my toes.<br /><br /><br />SLJ
 
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gunsandrockets

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China as it exists today, as a corrupt one party authoritarian kleptocracy, will never become a pre-eminent space power.<br /><br />Right now the rulers of China follow in the footsteps of Nikita Kruschev. Their space policy is one of minimal budgets for the purpose of 'space spectaculars' to pump up nationalistic spirit among the restive populace of China.<br /><br />Such a policy may even get the Chinese to Mars by taking huge risks. But it won't make a lasting impression.
 
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bpfeifer

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“Their space policy is one of minimal budgets for the purpose of 'space spectaculars' to pump up nationalistic spirit among the restive populace of China.<br /><br />Such a policy may even get the Chinese to Mars by taking huge risks. But it won't make a lasting impression.”<br /><br />Don’t be too sure it won’t make a lasting impression. China is a huge nation composed of several distinct cultural/ethnic groups. National pride is one of the few things that binds them together. Last year, while living in Japan, I had a chance to speak with a few Chinese from Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the mainland. They all identify with the Chinese space program, even the couple I met from Taiwan. It may well have a very long-term impact on whether or not the disperse ‘Chinese’ peoples want to coexist as a single nation.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Brian J. Pfeifer http://sabletower.wordpress.com<br /> The Dogsoldier Codex http://www.lulu.com/sabletower<br /> </div>
 
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asj2006

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"National pride is one of the few things that binds them together. Last year, while living in Japan, I had a chance to speak with a few Chinese from Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the mainland. They all identify with the Chinese space program, even the couple I met from Taiwan."<br /><br />Well, actually, the Han make up like 90%+ of the total Chinese, so China isn't exactly THAT diverse, but I agree about the fact that Chinese in general have a very strong tie to the mother country and to their racial identity. The space program and its achievements are celebrated not only by the mainlanders but Chinese worldwide, including here in the USA.<br /><br />I'm not Chinese, so I really don't care which government (Chinese, American, or European) does this. I'm an SF nut and I have to wonder why the heck manned space exploration has stagnated for so long. I think in the long run private commercialization of space is the way to go, BUT....<br /><br />I would point out that I believe the commercialization of space won't happen until GOVERNMENTS have created a path for private enterprise to follow in a PROFITABLE manner.<br /><br />In fact, I don't believe ANY corporation is capable of "opening up" space UNTIL the above occurs. CORPORATIONS are rather short term oriented, which they need to be in order to satisfy their shareholders, so the VERY LARGE capital investments and long ROIs involved in space exploration will kill any long-term interest by most private enterprises.<br /><br />If China can blaze a path for private corporations in the future, great! They certainly have the money for it, and the strong motivation. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>------------------------------------------- </p><p>"Breathe. This is like most of the choices you have in life. <br />You know inside whether it's right. <br />Whether you do it is up to you." </p><p>From the Tao of Willie Nelson</p> </div>
 
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asj2006

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"and the American entrepeneur will prevail. "<br /><br />The Chinese people are EXTREMELY capitalistic and very good at it nowadays. I deal with Chinese from the mainland every day, and in fact, my feeling is that in general the average Chinese is MORE capitalistic (or wealth-oriented) than the typical American. They have basically swung completely from being super-idealistic in the mao days (when people did stuff for the "good" of the country) to hyper-capitalistic (where EVERYONE is trying to get rich, and quickly, back-stabbing people if necessary). <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>------------------------------------------- </p><p>"Breathe. This is like most of the choices you have in life. <br />You know inside whether it's right. <br />Whether you do it is up to you." </p><p>From the Tao of Willie Nelson</p> </div>
 
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gunsandrockets

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"Don’t be too sure it won’t make a lasting impression. China is a huge nation composed of several distinct cultural/ethnic groups. National pride is one of the few things that binds them together."<br /><br />It doesn't matter.<br /><br />I don't deny the nationalistic spirit or entreprenurial energy of the Chinese people. Just look how far Hong Kong or Taiwan has come with so little.<br /><br />But mainland China is backward and trying to catch up because the Communist Party has held it back. And China will continue to lag the leading nations so long as the Communist Party of China stands in the way. All the party is interested in is staying in power and lining it's pockets.<br /><br />How far can China advance while modern information systems are crippled with censorship, contracts are allocated based on party ties, and the rule of law plays second fiddle to the absolute rule of the party?
 
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gunsandrockets

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" In the early 1400s, China possessed the most advanced and largest navy fleet in the world (commanded by Zheng He), but it decided to turn inward instead and scrapped their fleet. Because of this, Europe dominated the seas for the next couple centuries. China learned its lesson and has shown a strong urge to explore space."<br /><br />China hasn't learned it's lesson.<br /><br />Chinese space activity is paltry and the program is run by the military. Even if it wasn't, because of the power structure in China it's rulers could decide to throw it all away on a whim, just like the absolute rulers of China did all those centuries ago when they trashed the treasure fleet and the dockyards which built it. <br />
 
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brandbll

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Ok so let me get thisstraight. We've launched hundreds of missions to space and they've only launched two; yet they are the next space power to be? How the hell do you come up with that? They have less than 1% of the manned launches we have. We are still launching more craft then they are and right now we are running SLOW. I get tired of people always trying to get the early jump on a bandwagon and then have the gull to tell all teh rest of us that we missed out on their absurd prediction. Hell our private space tourism business stands a chance at beating out China at this rate. When you have to worry about a billion people in your country you really don't have the time to worry about landing people on the moon. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font size="3">You wanna talk some jive? I'll talk some jive. I'll talk some jive like you've never heard!</font></p> </div>
 
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toymaker

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The one thing China can use as advantage is to avoid wasting money, research and effort on mistakes others made before them. <br />Historically for example Germany made such rapid progress in XIX century because it copied industralisation from Britain but with already developed process. <br />China can achieve simply more by avoiding costly programs and commitments USA has made and making the right decisions.
 
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qso1

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asj2006:<br />The Chinese tend to proceed slowly and carefully, but at a steady pace, unlike NASA which pretty much went downhill after the moon landings. With its huge budget deficits and war spending, I'm not sure the USA can AFFORD to spend so much on space, unlike China.<br /><br />Me:<br />Thats more a matter of perspective IMO. The U.S. can afford it, we don't have the will. I say that because we had four years of surplus budgets that could have been partly used to provide major funding increases to NASA in the late 1990s under Clinton. It didn't happen because manned space in particular is just not at the priority level it was during Apollo. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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qso1

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asj2006:<br />I'm not Chinese, so I really don't care which government (Chinese, American, or European) does this. I'm an SF nut and I have to wonder why the heck manned space exploration has stagnated for so long. I think in the long run private commercialization of space is the way to go, BUT.... <br /><br />Me:<br />Again money. We cut NASAs budget some 50% after Apollo. From 1973 or so to present day, NASA has operated on roughly this 50% less money. In part because of Apollos end but also because manned space flight has not enjoyed the same priority that it did in Apollo. The shuttle was developed as a means to overcome what I call the cost barrier. Regular shuttle ops would bring down the cost of getting to low orbit. The shuttle was a stunning technical success but a financial loss. Currently we are hoping private enterprise/industry will take over the part of space flight NASA has been unable to accomplish economically.<br /><br />By the time China might gain some in manned space flight...our private industry just might be in a position to sell them access to LEO. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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qso1

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asj2006:<br />Reading old SF novels and stories is enlightening. When the British Empire was ascendant, many of the stories projected that the British would be the pre-eminent space nation,<br /><br />Me:<br />Preeminent nation may partly depend on how one defines preeminence. At one time it was the lead in human spaceflight the U.S. had as a result of Apollo. But some people didn't consider that to be an important enough criteria of measure even in the 1970s.<br /><br />Today China has launched 2 manned missions in the space of 2 or 3 years. Hardly a lead, and considering they have so far only done what both the U.S. and Russia did in 1961, again. Long way from the lead. In a decade they may gain ground but they will still not be in a preeminent position without a quantum leap.<br /><br />One potential area:<br />If they establish a lunar base while we do short missions to the moon, they will probably lead in this area and will naturally be seen as leaders in space overall.<br /><br />Drawback:<br />The one area above all in which a nation will be the preeminent leader will be the country that establishes a true permanent economical foothold on low earth access. We are well on our way to that foothold with our private industry efforts. If PI successfully develops a vehicle that can economically access low orbit in a manner similar to an airline, the U.S. will maintain a lead in human spaceflight by vurtue of the fact other countries will pay us to take them to LEO. Ultimately, P.I. could produce orbital vehicles for sale overseas like we do with commercial airliners today and China might be a customer in such a scenario.<br /><br />Of course, China could establish a lead in 10-15 years if the P.I. efforts fail and the U.S. abandons human spaceflight altogether. At that point it would be a question of China vs Russia assuming Europe dosn't take the lead. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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qso1

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Ah yes, a very good possibility. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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astrowikizhang

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"The Chinese people are EXTREMELY capitalistic and very good at it nowadays. I deal with Chinese from the mainland every day, and in fact, my feeling is that in general the average Chinese is MORE capitalistic (or wealth-oriented) than the typical American. They have basically swung completely from being super-idealistic in the mao days (when people did stuff for the "good" of the country) to hyper-capitalistic (where EVERYONE is trying to get rich, and quickly, back-stabbing people if necessary)."<br /><br />Your comment remind me of a name: Li Jian Zhong, 8th president of China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT), the organization in charge of research, development, and production of Chinese space launch vehicles, was sentenced to life imprisonment because of corruption, just months before the second Chinese HSF.
 
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vulture2

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China has no political alliance with Russia. China can clearly develop new technology, but will find it elsewhere if this is faster. Its manned space program serves much the same purpose as Apollo; to build national pride and demonstrate to the world that it is a leader in science and technology. Therefore slow but steady progress is ideal. China does not wish to engage in a new space race, not simply because a race may be lost, but also because a race has an end. <br /><br />China would be happy to cooperate in space if it is accepted as an equal partner. Consequently it is difficult to understand NASA's rejection of a Chinese role in the ISS, and even more, the NASA administrator's refusal to visit the Chinese launch site because the Chinese would not give him free access to their launch control and other facilities. <br /><br />This seems an unwarrented insult. We would never give a Chinese visitor free access on his first visit, in fact simply getting clearance for a Chinese national (i.e. a scientist or student) to visit a NASA facility is extraordinarily difficult. Similarly, our rejection of a Chinese role in the ISS program seems rather shortsighted, as China may be the only country with the funds to keep the ISS operating if the US pulls out, as planned, in 2012. International cooperation does not have to mean the US loses; it can mean both sides gain. I don't see China as pre-eminent, but it will certainly be a major player.<br />
 
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