Will 2020 Be the Year We Find Intelligent Alien Life?

rod

Oct 22, 2019
739
143
560
After reading this report and others like it- there seems to be a critical assumption at the foundation. The well attested scientific law of abiogenesis is at work throughout the universe so we will likely find E.T. phoning home, some day :) A good theory needs to be testable - and falsifiable too.
 
Nov 25, 2019
10
3
15
Every time I read about someone running their assumptions through the Drake Equation they get a result. But what I don't see is people careful putting the "error bars" through the equation. I know why. Because the errors if computed correctly would make the results look stupid.

What wants to be the one to publish something that reads. "There must be between 0.000001 and 100,000,000,000 technological civilizations." When you multiply 10 numbers that each have two orders of magnitude of uncertainty you get something about as meaningless as the above. At least the above can conclusively be shown to be correct.

I have another way to make an estimate. I can be applied only to Earth-like planets but there might be many of these. This also solves the problem that we only know of one planet with life and therefore have very poor statistics. Try this: Let's pretend there is an alien scientist who has been observing Earth from the beginning, from the time before the Moon was formed until today. Every day he observes if there is life on Earth and records the type of life he observes. He has many trillions of observations that say "only bacteria, nothing else" He has far less but still a lot that say "eukaryotic cells, simple plants, some worms" and a relative few observations labeled "several huminid species found" and even fewer that say "technological society that uses radio."

So why not take this scientist's notes and assume that planets in the solar system have the kinds of life on them in the same proportions as is present on the daily sample of Earth? We are tempted to extrapolate the alien's notes to say that the radio using society lasted 2 billion years but we have no basis for doing that.

Doing the above gives us as good of results as anything else, which is "within 20 orders of magnitude."
 
  • Like
Reactions: Truthseeker007
Nov 27, 2019
2
0
10
The rapid development of Life may depend on a small, water rich (exact temperature range for solid/liquid/gas), double planet with tectonic plates & a magnetic field; within the "habitability zone" of a sufficiently metallic (3rd or 4th generation), relatively quiet (yellow & white dwarf) sun, with a not too slow/fast rotation rate, a Jupiter (to act as shield for the inner planetary zone) & a circular galactic orbit, in a quiet part of a quiet galaxy. That may be no more than 1 or 2 per galaxy. Reasonably getting off the planet means it can't be much more massive than Earth. If the production of phosphorus varies widely as a function of the size of the supernova that seeded heavier elements into a new star system, so might the likelihood of life in the system. Life gets very difficult w/o abundant phosphorus.
 
Nov 25, 2019
10
3
15
This is the "Rare Earth Theory" and it very well might be true. Until we get more data we just do not know. Who knows, just maybe the 2020 Mars rover finds a micro-fossil or in 10 years oxygen and water vapor are detected on an Earth-like exoplanet.

Or like SETI we get 50 years of "nothing".

The counter-argument to "Rare Earth" is that, yes you need all those unlikely things to create Earth-like life. But other kinds of life will arise in other environments. My personal guess is that there was life n Mars but it never got even to the bacteria level and some people will call is only "pre-biotic chemistry" But I think what we'll find is a fossilized "RNA World". Very simple like where DNA had not yet come into being and the cells were 10X smaller than Earth-like bacteria. This is what was on Earth before DNA.

Next, I'll even add another rare step in the process that might only happen once in a thousand times, RNA is replaced by DNA as the store of genetic information.

It is an important and interesting question and even negative results are informative.

Today I can argue on either side of all these theories. They are all plausible and they all points pro and con. That is what makes science interesting. The only way to be dead-wrong is if you say you know for sure.
 
  • Like
Reactions: rosa u podne
Nov 27, 2019
168
71
160
When you think about the bulk of stars being in supernova country, to near the center.
The number of stars that are to big or to small or to active.
The number of earth like worlds with a decent moon to make them stable places or being the moon of a big planet in the right place and made up of just the right stuff.
And lord help most of those places with a much more than our asteroid belt or a decent planet with a less than circular orbit.

Then the unknown question of life beginning on one of those perfect places and getting past the bottleneck it did here.

ET IMO will be pond scum.
Could be a very long search for smart ET.
 
Last edited:
Dec 2, 2019
1
1
15
Sometimes people ask a question that is baseless wishful thinking. This is one of those instances. It ignores the obvious.

In all of earths history, where is the HARD evidence that there is alien life out there?

It doesn't exist.

I enjoy reading Space.com. I've subscribed to it for a couple of years now. I get emails quite frequently that keep me informed on what is happening in the cosmos. I can't always read them right when I open the email, so I set them aside so I can go back later and catch-up on those articles that caught my eye.

This week is the week after Thanksgiving and EVERYTHING I see on Space.com is all about what I can buy on Cyber Monday. I'm glad I just didn't delete the older emails, but this article in particular seems to be in the same genre as all of the stories about Cyber Monday that are actually commercials for those of us that get caught up in wishful thinking and spend too much time and money trying to buy everything our hearts desire when our desires are void of realistic critical thought.

I fear that this article is void of realistic critical thought and is just wishful thinking of a heart desiring to meet ET so he can fix all of the problems in the world and save us from ourselves.
 
  • Like
Reactions: rod

rod

Oct 22, 2019
739
143
560
Searching for intelligent life is a hot topic for many :). Today, we have 4139 confirmed exoplanets unlike 1961 when the Drake equation was presented. The host or parent stars range in distance from Earth from 4 to 35882 light-years with the mean or average near 2018 light-years distance. Is there a confirmed E.T. phoning home broadcast? I have not seen any. Unlike 1961, there are plenty of known exoplanets now confirmed but no E.T. phoning home. The Extrasolar Planets Encyclopaedia
 
  • Like
Reactions: lcarlson and Joel
Dec 11, 2019
5
1
10
It is possible that intelligent life or intelligent life footprint is far more scarce than it was expected... I remember the in the 70s and 80s (Carl Sagan's time) it was believed that the signs of alien life were out there waiting for us... but today it is more than evident that this search is more like a needle in the haystack... and scientifically we need to consider the possibility that there may be no needle to be found... at least in our neighborhood...
 
Nov 27, 2019
168
71
160
It is possible that intelligent life or intelligent life footprint is far more scarce than it was expected... I remember the in the 70s and 80s (Carl Sagan's time) it was believed that the signs of alien life were out there waiting for us... but today it is more than evident that this search is more like a needle in the haystack... and scientifically we need to consider the possibility that there may be no needle to be found... at least in our neighborhood...
It's a big galaxy but very limited in the places for a place for life to advance beyond the basic.
Most of the galaxy is in super nova country.
Of the remaining all the big stars short lived, red dwarfs will need to be the moon of a big planet or you get tidal locked and lots of our sort of stars are temper mental .

What is remaining needs to have a planet/moon or moon of big planet in just the right place at just the right size and be in a friendly solar system.
We also need to be alive and listening at the right time, we missed billions of years already :)

ET could be in our galaxy a few times or not at all.
Life on many worlds i think so, ET my guess maybe just us or 1 or 2 others per galaxy.
300 billion ET types spread 1 or 2 per galaxy.
 

rod

Oct 22, 2019
739
143
560
"Notice the artifacts around the sun below? When Dark Energy, UV Light and Seen Light converge together I believe the forms of energy generate the artifacts..."

My note - my stargazing log for this year going back to 03-Jan-19, shows 170 observation days and more than 222 hours at the eyepiece using my 90-mm refractor and 10-inch Newtonian for 2019, this means I am outdoors quite a bit and observing. Nothing like the images in the discussion/thread here appears in my eyepieces and I use TeleVue products. I also viewed the entire 11-Nov-19, Mercury transit, Mercury quite distinct moving across the view of the Sun at 40x and 71x views using a good, glass, white-light solar filter, including the view of the Sun. The images remind me of flat earth astronomy videos I watched showing the flat, translucent Moon with stars shining through during an eclipse, Venus is not a planet, the Sun shines through Venus, e.g. the June 2012 Venus transit (I observed this transit too), etc. The star Vega out of focus and Venus out of focus can be fun to look at :) I will say - these are *unique images*, perhaps other amateur observers using quality telescopes and equipment can duplicate or perhaps like me - they will see nothing like this in the firmament :)

One of the goals of the flat earth community is to show heliocentric solar system astronomy is false, stars, planets, the Sun, are not what astronomy teaches today. Flat earth astronomy videos look convincing on YouTube, until I go back and examine the same targets using my telescopes and equipment :)
 

rod

Oct 22, 2019
739
143
560
The discussions of E.T. phoning home in the universe bring to my mind the history of planet Earth. As far as I know, Earth is the only documented planet with a fossil record that is interpreted as *the evolutionary tree of life*. Example Precambrian fossils (algae for example), the Cambrian explosion fossils (trilobites for example), dinosaurs, etc. All of the *evolutionary tree of life* fossil examples on Earth show something in common. Life on Earth is subject to death and is not forever, we have well documented mass extinction(s) in the fossil record too. If E.T. is phoning home and traveling around in the universe, is E.T. subject to death or does E.T. live forever? If E.T. dies, how long does E.T. live or what is the lifespan of E.T.?
 

rod

Oct 22, 2019
739
143
560
Okay, this is a very interesting history proposed concerning the Oort Cloud :) I note this comment in the history provided "Humans coming to Earth from the Oort Cloud Carrier would have had been able to travel back and forth to their ship in the Oort Cloud for thousands of years until the power cells ran dry. Those who had been taken to Earth could have been instructed to create fantastical stories such as Adam and Eve..."

I did a calculation using the minimum distance provided, 0.3 light-years distance. If these pre-humans traveled multiple journeys from the Oort Cloud at 20 km/s (much faster than New Horizons), how long is the travel time? Answer is 4500 earth years - one way travel time.

How long did the pre-humans live, e.g. what is their life span? We have the well documented *evolutionary tree of life* in the fossil record from Precambrian to Tertiary strata and many extinct species documented. What are those life spans measured using the fossil record, say for example, the average life span of the trilobite found in the Cambrian explosion fossils? Could a trilobite live to make a 4500 year journey to Earth from the Oort Cloud in the space ships used in this thread? Remember, telescopes do not show photos of the Oort Cloud today so no direct image of the Oort Cloud is published in astronomy.
 
Nov 16, 2019
96
38
110
Maybe not 2020.. but certainly this century!
I'm not sure I agree with this.

With spectroscopy research for exoplanets we'll likely we'll discover signs of organic life based on atmospheric-composition alone within the next 5-20 years... but this won't be proof enough and certainly won't be telling of intelligent life.

What methods of technology are needed to detect intelligent life? SETI still seems like a long-shot to me. I'm not really sure...
 
Dec 11, 2019
383
116
360
Sometimes people ask a question that is baseless wishful thinking. This is one of those instances. It ignores the obvious.

In all of earths history, where is the HARD evidence that there is alien life out there?

It doesn't exist.

I enjoy reading Space.com. I've subscribed to it for a couple of years now. I get emails quite frequently that keep me informed on what is happening in the cosmos. I can't always read them right when I open the email, so I set them aside so I can go back later and catch-up on those articles that caught my eye.

This week is the week after Thanksgiving and EVERYTHING I see on Space.com is all about what I can buy on Cyber Monday. I'm glad I just didn't delete the older emails, but this article in particular seems to be in the same genre as all of the stories about Cyber Monday that are actually commercials for those of us that get caught up in wishful thinking and spend too much time and money trying to buy everything our hearts desire when our desires are void of realistic critical thought.

I fear that this article is void of realistic critical thought and is just wishful thinking of a heart desiring to meet ET so he can fix all of the problems in the world and save us from ourselves.
I take it you have never watched the show Ancient Aliens on the history channel.lol!
 

Vaz

Jan 5, 2020
24
9
15
The discussions of E.T. phoning home in the universe bring to my mind the history of planet Earth. As far as I know, Earth is the only documented planet with a fossil record that is interpreted as *the evolutionary tree of life*. Example Precambrian fossils (algae for example), the Cambrian explosion fossils (trilobites for example), dinosaurs, etc. All of the *evolutionary tree of life* fossil examples on Earth show something in common. Life on Earth is subject to death and is not forever, we have well documented mass extinction(s) in the fossil record too. If E.T. is phoning home and traveling around in the universe, is E.T. subject to death or does E.T. live forever? If E.T. dies, how long does E.T. live or what is the lifespan of E.T.?
With the eexception perhaps of octopuses (octopi?), who have no real link with any life form on Earth, past or present and might be worthy contenders of the "panspermia" school of thinking.
 
Dec 11, 2019
383
116
360
:D
With the eexception perhaps of octopuses (octopi?), who have no real link with any life form on Earth, past or present and might be worthy contenders of the "panspermia" school of thinking.
That is true. My girlfriend absolutely hates Octopuses and I told her their is more than likely a whole planet of intelligent Octopus. Not that these ones here aren't intelligent but ones maybe even far ahead of us either in another dimension or planet. She about collapsed. :D :D

Panspermia is really interesting and I am pretty sure their is something to it. Aren't Dolphins also a little off planet so to speak?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dwight Huth and Vaz

Vaz

Jan 5, 2020
24
9
15
:D

That is true. My girlfriend absolutely hates Octopuses and I told her their is more than likely a whole planet of intelligent Octopus. Not that these ones here aren't intelligent but ones maybe even far ahead of us either in another dimension or planet. She about collapsed. :D :D

Panspermia is really interesting and I am pretty sure their is something to it. Aren't Dolphins also a little off planet so to speak?

Such as the Order of the Dolphin, formed in 1961 at the Green Bank Observatory, that's been go in in and out of fashion as far as it comes to the efforts of SETI?
It's an interesting idea, seeing as dolphins are perhaps the smartest mammals alive on the planet, next to Humans, and being able to study not only their echo-location, but body language and physical contact not only with each other, but their environment would be a great step to not only understanding them, but possibly what any alien life might use, should some kind of marine life be found under the ice of Europa.

HA! Kind of reminds me of that Sir Arthur C,. Clarke book, "The Songs of Distant Earth", where a human colony was set up on the 90% ocean world of Thalassa, which had intelligent giant crab-like aliens. Personally, I find the idea of a planet inhabited by octopuses to be a rather more welcoming thought than one of spiders!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Truthseeker007
Dec 11, 2019
383
116
360
Such as the Order of the Dolphin, formed in 1961 at the Green Bank Observatory, that's been go in in and out of fashion as far as it comes to the efforts of SETI?
It's an interesting idea, seeing as dolphins are perhaps the smartest mammals alive on the planet, next to Humans, and being able to study not only their echo-location, but body language and physical contact not only with each other, but their environment would be a great step to not only understanding them, but possibly what any alien life might use, should some kind of marine life be found under the ice of Europa.

HA! Kind of reminds me of that Sir Arthur C,. Clarke book, "The Songs of Distant Earth", where a human colony was set up on the 90% ocean world of Thalassa, which had intelligent giant crab-like aliens. Personally, I find the idea of a planet inhabited by octopuses to be a rather more welcoming thought than one of spiders!
It would be great to figure out the language of the Dolphin also. I am sure they could tell us something. How we would figure out their language I am not sure. That is really interesting though. I wonder what would happen if you were to splice the DNA of a Human with a Dolphin. I mean would we have an Aquaman type being or a Mermaid type being?

Yes for sure I would much rather go to a world of octopus than spiders. I absolutely hate most spiders. I don't mind daddy long leggers to much but you won't see me getting a tarantula as a pet.lol! I have heard there is a kind of insecticide type ET being or a kind of ant people that some of the natives talked about. And than there was the Dogon tribes if my memory serves me correct their was a type of fish ET. Maybe that is why the pope wears a fish on his head. :D
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dwight Huth

Dwight Huth

BANNED
Oct 22, 2019
93
52
110
It would be great to figure out the language of the Dolphin also. I am sure they could tell us something. How we would figure out their language I am not sure. That is really interesting though. I wonder what would happen if you were to splice the DNA of a Human with a Dolphin. I mean would we have an Aquaman type being or a Mermaid type being?

Yes for sure I would much rather go to a world of octopus than spiders. I absolutely hate most spiders. I don't mind daddy long leggers to much but you won't see me getting a tarantula as a pet.lol! I have heard there is a kind of insecticide type ET being or a kind of ant people that some of the natives talked about. And than there was the Dogon tribes if my memory serves me correct their was a type of fish ET. Maybe that is why the pope wears a fish on his head. :D
Amazon River Dolphins are known to use large pieces of rocks, water weed and sticks to impress their mates and establish territory. Lets say that a male dolphin has placed ten sticks and ten rocks in a circle that equals 1,000 feet in diameter around the perimeter of his territory.


Each rock or stick would have its own Click Noise ID Tag to let other dolphins know that the stone or stick belongs to the dolphin. Since pheromones can't be used under the water for obvious reasons the Click Noise ID Tag for each stick or rock would be very unique. Lets say a stick is four feet long and has three curves to it plus one a barnacle. The Click Noise ID Tag would identify the length of the stick plus its curve numbers and then an even more unique Click for the barnacle. Therefore the stick would have its own Click ID noise followed by a Click that would determine the length of the stick overall. One Click would identify a curve in the stick made three times. The last Click would identify the barnacle itself. The Click ID Tag associated with the actual dolphin owning the stick could come either before or after the first click that is used to identify the stick itself. Therefore the language of the Amazon River Dolphin would have to remain consistent in order for other River Dolphins to understand. Body language would also play into the overall language as well. But all in all, Amazon River Dolphin language is really no different than the old telegraph machines that used ticks and clicks to send a signal through a wire that generates a letter, number or symbol on the receiving end.
 
Dec 11, 2019
383
116
360
Amazon River Dolphins are known to use large pieces of rocks, water weed and sticks to impress their mates and establish territory. Lets say that a male dolphin has placed ten sticks and ten rocks in a circle that equals 1,000 feet in diameter around the perimeter of his territory.


Each rock or stick would have its own Click Noise ID Tag to let other dolphins know that the stone or stick belongs to the dolphin. Since pheromones can't be used under the water for obvious reasons the Click Noise ID Tag for each stick or rock would be very unique. Lets say a stick is four feet long and has three curves to it plus one a barnacle. The Click Noise ID Tag would identify the length of the stick plus its curve numbers and then an even more unique Click for the barnacle. Therefore the stick would have its own Click ID noise followed by a Click that would determine the length of the stick overall. One Click would identify a curve in the stick made three times. The last Click would identify the barnacle itself. The Click ID Tag associated with the actual dolphin owning the stick could come either before or after the first click that is used to identify the stick itself. Therefore the language of the Amazon River Dolphin would have to remain consistent in order for other River Dolphins to understand. Body language would also play into the overall language as well. But all in all, Amazon River Dolphin language is really no different than the old telegraph machines that used ticks and clicks to send a signal through a wire that generates a letter, number or symbol on the receiving end.
That is pretty amazing. Thanks for that bit of information. I think I am going to do some more research on Dolphins. They are quite the amazing creature. What else is interesting is that they are mammals. It is also interesting how they are very peaceful also and even save humans every now and then if they are in trouble in the ocean.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dwight Huth

Dwight Huth

BANNED
Oct 22, 2019
93
52
110
That is pretty amazing. Thanks for that bit of information. I think I am going to do some more research on Dolphins. They are quite the amazing creature. What else is interesting is that they are mammals. It is also interesting how they are very peaceful also and even save humans every now and then if they are in trouble in the ocean.
Did you know that ants were used to determine more efficient trajectories of the Cassini probe?
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY

Latest posts