World & US Launch Markets

[radarredux]

The launch market is often talked about in various threads, and I thought I would post this short article from AW&ST that I recently found again.<br /><br />Still Stagnant<br />Aviation Week and Space Technology<br />July 11, 2005, pg. 17<br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>The slump in spaceflight continues, with only 25 orbital launches worldwide through June. That matches the lackluster pace of 2004, which also saw only 25 orbital missions through June and the lowest launch rate overall since 1961. According to Britain's Airclaims consultancy, the bulk of the payloads continues to be carried by three rockets that date their heritage to the dawn of the space age -- Soyuz, Proton, and the Delta II. Those vehicles serve both government and commercial operators. More modern, and commercial, rockets like the Ariane 5 and the Sea Launch Zenit 3SL still suffer from technical issues or payload delays, Airclaims found. China's Long March stands poised for an upturn as non-U.S. satellite builders avoid tightly controlled U.S. components to take advantage of low Chinese launch prices. But overall the launch market is so crowded with converted ICBMs and new vehicles like the SpaceX Falcon that there is "considerable doubt over whether any company can make a profit." The flat market is particularly evident in the U.S., where Futron Corp. found only two "truly commercial" launches on its 2005 manifest--one Atlas V and one Falcon 1. "While there are some signs of resuscitation of the industry from its current trough, there is little evidence to indicate that the commercial launch market will return to ... robust levels of activity in the forseeable future," Futron states.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />There are a lot if implications in these numbers, especially for a company like SpaceX which cannot be subsidized by other parts of a large company (e.g., Boeing) or supporting governments (e.g., ESA).

 

[spaceiscool]

thats coz nasa keeps throwing billions into killing astonauts instead of something that works.

 

[no_way]

In other news, SpaceX is supposed to post their "regular" update on their site in a few days, with announcements for several new launches in backlog for Falcon I.<br />I suspect theres significant price-elasticity on the market. Actually, not only price, but also responsive space launch. <br />Telecom industry is moving so fast in new technology sectors ( witness WiMAX deployments in several cities aound the world ) that it becomes unacceptable to make plans for one-two years down the road. The company could be outcompeted and out of business before it can get its satellite launched just because space launch industry isnt capable of moving faster. Thus terrestrial alternatives are often sought. <br />Of course, there are no terrestrial alternatives sometimes and this still keeps launch industry alive.<br /><br />But for instance, the all-popular satellite imaging could be signigicantly undercut by near-space airships in not too distant future ( for instance, check out JP Aerospace plans )