you leave the pad you are entering a very dangerous, unforgiving and dare we say risky environment. Did NASA have a risk assessment calculation or odds for success with the Apollo landings? was it 50 -50, 70 -30, 90 -10? I doubt it is was 100% and what sort of odds for success is NASA aiming...
you have to wonder with all the the new testing and analyzing of what went wrong with the current heat shield that if in the end they will waste more time and money than they would have if they had used the obviously successful Apollo 300K honeycomb method to begin with. If it aint broke
why...