R
radarredux
Guest
(oops, the title should be "17% chance of death")<br />A CNN article references Michael Stamatelatos, NASA's director of safety and assurance requirements, as saying that the Shuttle crew has a 1-in-100 chance of dying. If this number is correct (my guess is that this is a crude guesstimate), and that probability stays consistent for the next 17 flights, the odds of losing another crew before completing ISS is about 17%.<br /><br />1 - (0.99^18) =0.165.<br /><br />Shuttle crew faces 1-in-100 chance of dying<br />http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/space/06/27/shuttle.risk.ap/index.html