2008 CT1 .3 LD MISS.

[cyclonebuster]

ASTEROID FLYBY: That was close. Yesterday, newly discovered asteroid 2008 CT1 flew past Earth only 72,000 miles (0.3 lunar distances) away. Had it struck our planet, the 13-meter wide space rock (similar in size to a school bus) would have done little damage, probably exploding in the atmosphere and peppering some lonely stretch of ocean with meteorites. Maybe next time...<br />

 

[MeteorWayne]

It's also temporarily on the risk page for a possible return in 2041, though that will likely disappear as the orbit becomes more defined. <br /><br />It is also a possible Mercury impactor, since that's very near it's perihelion. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

How about this one did it pass through a key hole where it may get us next time around?

 

[MeteorWayne]

.<br />Not in the sense that I think you are using the word "keyhole".<br /><br />Certainly not on the "next time around"<br />Since the period is less than a year, and the first potential impact is in 2041, it will complete at least 36 or 37 orbits before then.<br /><br />Since this asteroid was discovered near or after closest approach, it's rather a moot point.<br /><br />The term keyhole has only been used so far for Apophis, where the 2029 close approach will be close enough to the earth to significantly modify the orbit leading to possible impacts 7 or 8 years later.<br /><br />It is still on the risk page with 107 possible impacts after 2041.<br />The reason there are so many is that the orbit determination is very low quality due to the short (~ 16 hour) period of observation.<br />However it has not been observed since Feb 3rd, probably because it's so small, and is also now on the sun side of our view.<br />It's actually quite likely it won't be seen again for many decades.<br /><br />In any case, even if it does hit, it's just entertainment. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <br /><br />Edited for clarity <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

2 new small asteroid/meteoroids have been discovered near close approach<br /><br />2008 CE22 (~ 25 m diameter) was discovered 3 days after close approach at 1 Lunar Distance.<br /><br />2228 CF22 (a tiny bit larger) will come within 1.6 LD tomorrow.<br /><br />It really is an affirmation of the current searches that such small asteroids are being discovered, it's good news for our long term safety. <br /><br />Edit, and here's a fun one.<br /><br />A 3 in 100 million chance for a large (220 meter) asteroid, 2008 CM20 to impact July 30 this year.<br /><br />Only onserved for 15 hours, so orbit is very dicey, but until more obs come in, the risk is not zero; with the large large size, the Palermo Scale is -3.64.<br /><br />Earth MOID = .0850969 AU (over 12 million kilomters<br />)<br />Notice the difference from the other two I just mentioned. This is a larger object, and was discovered 6 months before closest approach, unlike the tiny ones that we catch as they go by. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Regarding 2008 CM20...<br /><br />The only reason it's on the risk page at all is because of it's large size. On the possible impact date, it (using the current best orbit) will be 0.436 AU from earth. The only reason it's even possible is because of the half day long observation arc, the errors in position are greater than 0.4 AU.<br />That's a lot.<br /><br />From looking at the orbit, there should be plenty of time to collect observations on this object, so within 24 hours it seems likely the July threat will evaporate. <br /><br />Edit:<br /><br />And since the MOID is so large, and it occurs in January, the July impact is very unlikely.<br /><br />In fact, this asteroid does not even show on the close approach page, since no close approach is remotely likely. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

2008 CM20 removed from risk page.<br />2008 CM20 2008-02-10 12:26 <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Also removed from risk page<br />2008 CF22 2008-02-10 13:06 <br /> <br />Edit:<br />Closest approach, 0.00376 AU was about 12 UT today.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>