After Moon and Mars, where does VSE lead?

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BReif

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I am grateful that the USA, specifically NASA now has a plan to get out of LEO, and back to the Moon. I am also grateful that there is finally a concrete plan for a lunar base included in the lunar plan. I do beleive that the Moon is an invaluable resource as well as a stepping stone to futher exploration, Mars and beyond. It looks as if the 21st century will be the century that humanity will become a multi-world species.<br /><br />My question: Where is "beyond"? Where will human space exploration take us after Mars? Near-Earth asteroids may come to mind, but is that all, or are we talking about human missions to Jupiter's moons, Saturn's moons, etc. Where will human exploration have taken us in 100 years?<br /><br />
 
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qso1

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NASA suggested a few weeks ago that they might consider human missions to Near Earth Asteroids (NEOs) but beyond that, beyond is just that. There are no plans as yet for human exploration of Jupiter's moons etc. <br /><br />As it stands now, the Mars plans are only vaguely defined and the VSE has to survive the Presidential election of 2008 and all that comes with it. If it survives that, the VSE would last long enough if it gets to Mars that by the time the first mars missions are done. The hardware of the VSE will be approaching obsolescance and/or commercial interests may take over the mars development plans. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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docm

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Another mission might be to maintain satellites at LaGrange points; JWST or whatever comes along. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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qso1

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Good possibility of that. Was the JWST suppose to be in a lagrange point orbit?. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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docm

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Last I heard it's going to L2 by way of an Ariane 5 from Kourou. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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Boris_Badenov

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The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe is already there & there are several more in the works that will be placed in the L2 point. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>
 
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qso1

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L-2s gettin busy. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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mattblack

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Asteroid Ceres, Callisto, Titan....... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>One Percent of Federal Funding For Space: America <strong><em><u>CAN</u></em></strong> Afford it!!  LEO is a <strong><em>Prison</em></strong> -- It's time for a <em><strong>JAILBREAK</strong></em>!!</p> </div>
 
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Boris_Badenov

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Maybe someone will put a BA-330 module out there & we could schedule an SDC group outing<img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>
 
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docm

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I'll bring the beer <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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gunsandrockets

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"I'll bring the beer"<br /><br />I wonder. How does canned beer respond to lower pressure environments? How about at 10 pounds per square inch (Orion spacecraft level)? Or 5 pounds per square inch (Apollo spacecraft)? It might be better to leave the gassy beverages on Earth!
 
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Boris_Badenov

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I like Tequila<img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /><img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /><img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>
 
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nyarlathotep

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The only thing the VSE leads to is continued employment at KSC, Promontory and Decatur.
 
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BReif

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In my opinion, I think that the VSE will survive the 2008 presidential elections just fine. The US Congress, with a large majority (with broad bi-partisan support BTW) passed the NASA Authorization Act of 2005 (or was it 2006?) that endorsed the VSE as National Space Policy. It seems that the VSE has the political support of both Republicans and Democrats, therefore, it should weather the elections just fine. The pace may have to be slowed for budgetary reasons, but the goals remain the same. Remember, the VSE is a "vision" not a "program". Visions cost nothing, programs do. And it is the national policy of the US governement (according to the above mentioned SPace Act) that any programs implemented/funded be oriented toward this "vision", both manned and unmanned. Orion/ESAS/ etc. is a program oriented toward the vision. The program may be altered or changed, or even cancelled in favor of another approach (hopefully not), but the Vision remains.
 
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trailrider

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"My question: Where is "beyond"? Where will human space exploration take us after Mars? Near-Earth asteroids may come to mind, but is that all, or are we talking about human missions to Jupiter's moons, Saturn's moons, etc. Where will human exploration have taken us in 100 years?"<br /><br />Had you asked such a question of Thomas Jefferson or Lewis or Clark, what do you think their answer would be? If you had asked the Wright brothers what would be the state of aviation in 100 or 103 years, what might they have said? Would they have made correct predictions, or been way off?<br /><br />There is no way to predict the future of any given endeavor (no pun intended). After all, the ISS doesn't look anything like the "wheel" that von Braun posited. <br /><br />Neither is there any guarrantee as to which nation will lead in the exploration of space...not even for Project Constellation/Orion. There are also factors we cannot even foresee in the space exploration/exploitation industry. How fast will commercial space development progress? Will that become a driving force in development of lunar bases, which will, in turn, push the desire for faster exploration?<br /><br />If one will pardon a somewhat risque reference, I will quote my Air Force ROTC instructor, whose specialty was Plans and Operations (G-3):<br /><br />"Pity the poor planner,<br /> he carries neither sword nor pistol!<br /> He tinkles when he walks,<br /> for his balls are made of crystal!"<br /><br />Or to put it another way, if I could predict what might happen in the next fifteen minutes, I could retire as a rich man!<br /><br />Happy Holidays!<br /><br />I think my mantra says it all... To the Moon! To Mars! To the stars! <br /><br />Ad Luna! Ad Ares! Ad Astra! <br /><br /><br />
 
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radarredux

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> <i><font color="yellow">Where is "beyond"? Where will human space exploration take us after Mars?</font>/i><br /><br />NASA doesn't plan to ramp up their Mars agenda until ~2025. That would put the first Mars landings in the 2030s, with mature operations running around 2040s-2050s.<br /><br />That is a <b><i>LONG</i></b> ways off, and there are far too many external variables that will play a role between now and then. Here are just a few issues to consider:<ul><li>How well the US economy survives the ballooning deficit (projected to really grow after 2010) and the baby boomer retirement (what social security?)?<br /><li>What happens to China and Russia over the next 40-50 years? Both have booming economies right now, and both are active in manned space exploration. Will NASA become an also-ran by then?<br /><li>How will the global economy adjust to tapped out oil supplies? While there is still plenty of oil in the ground, new supplies are being found at a slower rate than existing supplies are being drained, and the technology to extract the new supplies is getting expensive.<br /><li>Will the nascent private space exploration take off or die with a whimper?<br /><li>Will space exploration find its own economy? Can Platinum Group Metals be mined on the Moon or from asteroids? Will fusion reactors finally work and require a steady supply of He-3 from the Moon?<br /><li>How will global warming affect the global economy and social fabric?<br /><li>How will the world react to the first WMD terrorist attack?<br /><li>Will the Earth manage to get through the next 50 years without another global war?<br /><li>Will there be another major plague (e.g., the 1918 Flu) on Earth over the next 50 years? How will that affect the global economy, and how will that affect the world's desire to be a multi-planet species?<br /><li>Will SETI find signs of intelligent life over the next 50 years? How will that affect the space exploration agenda?<br /><li>How will the nature of</li></li></li></li></li></li></li></li></li></li></li></ul></i>
 
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radarredux

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> <i><font color="yellow">Lots of questions, the answers to which might dramatically affect the direction of space exploration post Mars.</font>/i><br /><br />But I will throw caution to the wind, here are my predictions. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />SUMMARY: Much like the Internet, economic and technological factors will quickly reduce the US government's role (i.e., NASA's role) to irrelevance. The "Vision" will be meaningless and something only studied in history books.<br /><br /><br />The combination of countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia developing "peaceful" nuclear energy programs, the continuing rise in global temperatures, and the inability for oil production to keep up with growing demand will prompt the US and other nations to finally get serious and devote serious money into developing clean fusion reactors. This will change the economy of space, and with it, manned exploration of space.<br /><br />The Moon will be strip mined for He-3, and eventually production facilities will be established off Jupiter to harvest He-3. Beyond He-3, PGM will be mined on the Moon and then at asteroids. The ecomomic viability of a space industry will radically change the problem with access to space, with serious venture capital pouring in. Costs to access space will drop dramatically and open up space to a huge percentage of the population.<br /><br />By 2060 the "global" economy will span everything between Venus and Jupiter. NASA's role in the solar system will be largely irrelevant.<br /><br />By 2030-2040 artifical intelligence (while perhaps not up to human standards yet) will have improved dramatically. Similarly, propulsion technologies (e.g., solar sails and NEP) will have finally moved us away from chemical rockets beyond the CIS-Lunar system. Starting in 2030 and accelerating through the decades, serious efforts will be made to send super intelligent spacecraft to distant stars using the advanced propulsion technologies.<br /><br />B</i>
 
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bpfeifer

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"How does canned beer respond to lower pressure environments?"<br /><br />At low enough pressure it becomes a rocket engine.... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Brian J. Pfeifer http://sabletower.wordpress.com<br /> The Dogsoldier Codex http://www.lulu.com/sabletower<br /> </div>
 
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bpfeifer

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“Where is "beyond"? Where will human space exploration take us after Mars?”<br /><br />The “and beyond” in the VSE is later expanded to “and extend a human presence across the solar system.” The sub-context of the statement is a desire to spread American-style civilization throughout the solar system. Both 2030 and 2050 are a long way off, and separated from today by many presidential and Congressional elections. So what will happen is up for grabs, but we can make a few intelligent guesses. So long as space exploration fulfills the basic needs of the federal government, Congress will continue to fund it. <br /><br />As for private space flight, if the economics exist, it will happen. If you come up with a business model that demonstrates how you will make a profit in space, you will be able to find the financial and technical backing needed to make it a reality. <br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Brian J. Pfeifer http://sabletower.wordpress.com<br /> The Dogsoldier Codex http://www.lulu.com/sabletower<br /> </div>
 
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dreada5

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Depending on global economics/politics etc:<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Starting in 2030 and accelerating through the decades, serious efforts will be made to send super intelligent spacecraft to distant stars using the advanced propulsion technologies. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />I don't think so. Propulsion technology will likely have developed sufficiently to enable "fast" manned missions to inner planets (specifically mars, and later, jupiter and saturn) but more likely "fast" robotic missions to the outer solar system (pluto, neptune) and maybe oort cloud.<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>By 2060 the "global" economy will span everything between Venus and Jupiter. NASA's role in the solar system will be largely irrelevant. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Possibly, but NASA or similar exploration organisation will probably still be paving the way to industrial development of the outer solar system.<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>By 2075, advances in human hibernation and artificial womb technologies will advance sufficiently to send out the first human pioneers to distant stars. The core crew will be put in hibernation, and if a suitable habitat is found around the destination star, they will use the artificial wombs to start a new human colony. In fact, they may be greeted by humoid robots launched ahead of time who have already prepared a place for humans. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Again possibly, but 2075 is so far out that it becomes increasingly difficult to predict dates - you basically enter the realm of sci-fi! Think "Aliens" films <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />
 
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mikeemmert

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^^read subject question^^<br /><br />I think it leads firmly in the wrong direction at this time. I am not saying that it isn't a laudable goal, what I am saying is that it is very premature to think of revisiting the Moon and Mars.<br /><br />I guess people want to leap back to the moon because rockets work. The trouble is, they don't really work all that well. I think VSE diverts funds from airbreathing/partially airbreathing boosters, airlaunched concepts, elevators and rotovators, ion/plasma drive, nuclear power, a host of technologies that would be really handy to have to make trips to the Moon/Mars/asteroids/comets etc.<br /><br />Let's face facts. We only bought 5 shuttles, and two of them exploded. This means our LEO transportation system needs to be replaced.<br /><br /><i>By something better</i>. Not archaeological technology. We have such little plans. They have no power to stir men's souls.<br /><br />One reason I would advocate patience is that the educational system, worldwide, has gotten better. I know this better than most on these boards, since I got my education delayed and have experienced first hand the improved education of those right out of high school vs. students of the early '70s and mid '80's. I can just see the boredom of these better-trained people as they sort through musty old books to copy musty old blueprints into their shiny new computers.
 
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holmec

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I believe that VSE will leave us with a system of space craft and systems and subsystems that can be built upon. Getting the know how (pioneering) is what NASA does best. That will pave a way for commerce to start expanding throughout the Solar System. There is also much to explore in the Solar System and in 100 years we will still have much to explore. But I believe we could be well on our way to be mining and manufacturing in space by then. And maybe, just maybe grow crops. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off</em></font></p> </div>
 
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mikeemmert

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I believe VSE will leave us with an <i>obsolete</i> system of space craft and systems and subsystems that can hold us back in the past as other nations forge ahead.<br /><br />It's like perfecting the sailing ship and then holding back on steam boats because "they're too hard to do".<br /><br />Your sig line asks where space colonies are. Well...there's your answer.
 
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docm

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We'll see about that. Other than the argument over large capsule (Orion) or small crew return capsule + mission module (GE Apollo D-2, Soyuz) I see little to get upset over other than boosters. That said;<br /><br />http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/061227_asteroid_orion.html<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p><b>Orion Hardware Reviewed For Human Asteroid Flight</b><br /><br />Progress is being made on defining a human mission to an asteroid. Experts at several NASA centers are sketching out a prospective piloted stopover at an asteroid—a trek that could return samples from a targeted space rock as well as honing astronaut proficiency and test needed equipment for other space destinations.<br /><br />At the heart of such a mission is drawing upon the technology of NASA’s Constellation initiative—the overarching program that is gearing up to extend human presence at the Moon, on Mars and beyond. One key ingredient is the Orion spacecraft—a post-Space Shuttle vehicle now under design to thrust crews further than low Earth orbit.<br /><br />Meanwhile, NASA is wrapping up a report required by the U.S. Congress on how best to search for, catalog and even deal with the hazard of Earth-bruising rocks from space. That space agency report is to be turned over to Congress by year’s end.<br /><br />If lawmakers give the green light to a next generation Near Earth Object (NEO) search program, there could be 40 times the current discovery rate of these celestial bodies. By the time a human mission to an asteroid is ready, there’s likely to be a healthy list of suitable targets.<br /> /><p><hr /></p></p></blockquote> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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BReif

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As far as having a spacecraft that is capable of cis-lunar flight, or further (NEO mission being mulled over), I believe that Orion fits the bill very well. It may be a capsule (a large one as opposed to what Gemini and Apollo were), but it will perform the mission, which the Shuttle can not do, nor could a spacplane, or a ram/scram-jet, etc. Certainly, I beleive that the Orion spacecraft will be far more advanced that Apollo was, especially with navigation and computer power. The shape of the capsule, I beleive, is dictated by the aerodynamic requirements of re-entry at lunar return speeds. I definitley see Orion/CEV as a step forward, not a step back.
 
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