Asteroid Apophis is speeding up from sunlight as scientists recalculate odds of 2068 impact

[Admin]

Astronomers say they'll have to keep an eye on the near-Earth asteroid Apophis to see how much of a danger the space rock poses to our planet during a close pass in 2068.

Asteroid Apophis is speeding up from sunlight as scientists recalculate odds of 2068 impact : Read more

 

[Catastrophe]

I am amazed that no one picked up on this. Certainly that I missed it. So they didn't take account of the Yarkovsky Effect!

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Showing the orbit for the 1,120-foot-wide (340 m) Apophis, he indicated that astronomers thought they had enough observations of the asteroid — collected over the years after its discovery in 2004 — to more or less rule out an impact in 2068. Those calculations, however, were based on an orbit not affected by the sun's energy. Ultimately, this means we can't yet rule out Apophis being a threat in 2068, Tholen said.
"The 2068 impact scenario is still in play," Tholen said. "We need to track this asteroid very carefully."
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My emphasis.

Cat

 

[sam85geo]

Perhaps we could start the building of interdiction missiles, and be ready by 2068 ce to "shoot that sucker out of orbit" if necessary.

 

[Catastrophe]

Perhaps we could start the building of interdiction missiles, and be ready by 2068 ce to "shoot that sucker out of orbit" if necessary.

I am intending to give some comparisons from Chicxulub down.
Tunguska 17—20 metres. (Apophis 17—20 x Tunguska size) mass 11,000 tonnes Energy 500 kilotons. (1908). Other sources put size higher. Tunguska levelled 2,000 sq km = 500,000 acres of pine forest. Major cities ere at same latitude which means than had Tunguska been minutes later this damage could have caused major havoc and loss of life. Apophis is around 17-20 times size of Tunguska.
Chelyabinsk was smaller, but another (small) asteroid 2012 DA14 arrived the same day as Chelyabinsk. and came within 27,000 km 16,740 miles of Earth. Bus arrivals?

Cat

 

[Catastrophe]

Perhaps we could start the building of interdiction missiles, and be ready by 2068 ce to "shoot that sucker out of orbit" if necessary.

There is this, for what it is worth:

Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission | NASA

Cat

 

[Helio]

That solar “push” equates to only about 5 miles difference by 2068, assuming only a linear change.

 

[Catastrophe]

Here are some useful comparisons from:

Asteroid Apophis: Will It Hit Earth? Your… | The Planetary Society

What would happen if Apophis hit Earth?
Apophis would cause widespread destruction up to several hundred of kilometers from its impact site. The energy released would be equal more than 1,000 megatons of TNT, or tens to hundreds of nuclear weapons.

How big was the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs?
The asteroid that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs as well as 70% of all species on Earth was at least 10 to 15 kilometers wide. It was much larger than Apophis, though millions of people could still die if an Apophis-sized asteroid struck a major metropolitan area.

Interesting to compare with Tunguska and Chelyabinsk. Although these exploded before impact they could have done serious damage hitting an urban area as suggested above.

Cat