Asteroids

killer223 · Dec 29, 2005

Asteroids,the belt surrounds the inner planets...............some people i interacted with think that for the years to come...........asteroids may be a big issue soon.

jatslo · Dec 29, 2005

Not if one the size of mars smacks into Earth at 25,000 miles per hour. I think there is a movie coming out about similar, a remake of a classic. What have you heard about asteroids, and why are they to become a big issue soon?

dragon04 · Dec 29, 2005

With my feeble grip on orbital mechanics, unless some wickedly large body from outside our solar system comes swooping in from a totally bizarre angle to the ecliptic, I'm feeling pretty good about not getting smacked anytime soon. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "2012.. Year of the Dragon!! Get on the Dragon Wagon!". </div>

killer223 · Dec 29, 2005

Well recently,I've been on the PC a lot lately,and of course you got these scientists predicting the future from left to right trying their best to predict the universe.Then theres certain channels,that have stories about pass asteroids hitting the Earth.They always date back to the dinosaurs extinction.What about now?!Some scientists try to get to into detail sometimes about the future.And about asteroids being an issue real soon,some say it has something to do with the Earth changing.The earth going thru certain changes like for ex.-what i heard that the earth inner metal core may stop spinning,and the magnetical field around the earth is bound to attract intergalactic material.Thats what some people are saying.Where i'm confused at,is where does that come into play with outside objects?

jatslo · Dec 29, 2005

Oh, if the Earth's core stops spinning, the electromagnetic field will no longer protect us from harmful particles. I guess, if the solar wind has full access to our atmosphere, it could blow it away over time, and that decreased atmosphere could increase the lifespan of ballistics that enter Earth's atmosphere, which equates to far more impacts. For example, the Earth's moon without an atmosphere is impacted far more than Earth is. I would be curious if gravity oscillations are indicative of speed, velocity, momentum changes within the Earth's core. I know that there is a gravity experiment currently under way as we speak, but gravity oscillations will take many years to weed out, predict, and attribute to some cause, like a slower spinning core. That is a very good question!

killer223 · Dec 29, 2005

Thanks!You know sometimes i just always wondered what would happen if the Earth's core really did stop.The field around the Earth is indeed an important factor to the Earth itself. But just imagine the Movie-"The Core".Right now,i don't think we've probably come close to that kind of technology of reaching the core of the Earth.Unless,now and days this Earth can be selfish and some people are hiding some great things from us...............Comets can sometimes though knock some asteroids into orbit though.But right now,that seems very,very,and very rare.

jatslo · Dec 29, 2005

If we wait for the smoking gun, it will be too late; more people should take notice, because impacts have happened, and they will happen again. Take Jupiter for instance, it was recently drilled by a comet.

telfrow · Dec 29, 2005

Take Jupiter for instance, it was recently drilled by a comet. Actually, it was twenty-one pieces of Comet Shoemaker-Levy (1994). http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/sl9/sl9.html <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yeild. - Tennyson </div>

yevaud · Dec 29, 2005

Shoemaker-Levy. I know - I watched one of the impacts from the BU Observatory. Way cool! The odds of a Dinosaur Killer are 1:100,000,000. And the last was 65,000000 years ago. However. There are Earth-Crossing Asteroids out there, and we haven't yet indentified all of them. And they can range from tiny up to huge. Not to mention, the scenario of "using our ICBM's to deflect/divert/destroy" them is speculative at best. ICBM's aren't even designed to do so, and deflecting something of that kind of mass (assuming something potentially devastating) is very, very difficult. No "Armageddon," either. Bruce Willis and that nonsense is out too. Unfortunately. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Differential Diagnosis: "I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are." </div>

jmilsom · Dec 29, 2005

Yevaud, 1:100,000,000 - is that for any given year? ....for any given day? ...........for any given 1/100,000,000th of a second? (Whoooomp, Ahhhhhhhhhhh) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

yevaud · Dec 29, 2005

Oh, sorry. That was imprecise of me. 1 potential strike out of every one-hundred-million years. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Differential Diagnosis: "I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are." </div>

jatslo · Dec 29, 2005

Extinctions occur roughly every twenty six million years, and if large impacts were the cause of each, then I would have a problem with your 1 in 100-million guess. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> WOOSH! WOOSH! WOOSH! implosion/explosion!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Run for your life.

yevaud · Dec 29, 2005

You *do* realize how statistics work, yes? To say that the odds of something occurring once every, say, thousand years doesn't mean that a thousand years have to go by for it to occur. It could be today, ten years from now, or a thousand years. What it means here is that by the time 100,000,000 years transpires, the odds of a Dinosaur-Killer occurring is 100%. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Differential Diagnosis: "I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are." </div>

jatslo · Dec 30, 2005

As for probability, I guess 100% would be the same as 1, which is far more probable than .000000001% chance of this event happening today, but that is not necessarily a "Given". I am taking statistics and probability now in college, and I am not very pleased about it.

jatslo · Dec 30, 2005

Actually, if 26-million years have passed since the last macro-impact, then that would mean that we have roughly a 26% chance of getting slammed today.

bonzelite · Dec 30, 2005

or it could be tomorrow, i think from what Yevaud says. like if they say "there's a 30% chance of rain today" means that it will 100% for sure rain over 30% of the projected area.

yevaud · Dec 30, 2005

Not entirely correct. No one moment during that span of time is preferred to any other. Yes, as time goes on, it's more likely, but not rigidly such as that. The odds of being shot in the head while playing Russian Roulette with a revolver is 6:1. Yet people who play this deadly game are frequently killed on their first try. Others play hundreds of times, yet live. So don't let the odds of something occurring blind you. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Differential Diagnosis: "I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are." </div>

jatslo · Dec 30, 2005

KKPT <--- Stock I am researching at the moment. Yeah, but if you pull the trigger and pass it to the next person, the second person has a 1 and 5 chance, and if by chance the gun reaches the sixth person, that person is dead meat, unless he or she misses like in the Apocalypse Now movie. For example, your 1 in 100,000,000 years has passed 26-million, so the odds have increased to 26% for our generation. Bonzelite said that this phenomena is local, so the asteroid is not likely to hit the same place twice within your 100,000,000 million years, and that makes sense. Is this what you mean?

jatslo · Dec 30, 2005

That makes sense.

yevaud · Dec 30, 2005

Yes, but it still doesn't mean that we have to get to 100,000,000 years for it to occur. These are odds only. It's more likely now than 25,000,000 years ago, and the likelihood increases as time goes by, but it could still happen today. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Differential Diagnosis: "I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are." </div>

Saiph · Dec 30, 2005

right, and we could hit 100 million years and still not have it occur until 150 million, or 300 million. The odds are though, that if it hasn't hit around then, people will be wondering why (like you wonder why you haven't flipped a coin and gotten tails after the fifth heads in a row). <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> --------------------SaiphMOD@gmail.com -------------------"This is my Timey Wimey Detector. Goes "bing" when there's stuff. It also fries eggs at 30 paces, wether you want it to or not actually. I've learned to stay away from hens: It's not pretty when they blow" -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink" </div>

bonzelite · Dec 30, 2005

The odds of being shot in the head while playing Russian Roulette with a revolver is 6:1. Yet people who play this deadly game are frequently killed on their first try. Others play hundreds of times, yet live. hahahahahaha! i laughed my 1841348 off at that!!

summoner · Dec 30, 2005

If the odds are 1 in 10000000 that it hits us, then they are the same for the first day after it hits as it is for the 9999999th day after. Just like flipping a coin, if you flip 10 heads in a row, your odds are still 50-50 to flip haeds on the next roll. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:271px;background-color:#FFF;border:1pxsolid#999"><tr><td colspan="2"><div style="height:35px"><img src="http://banners.wunderground.com/weathersticker/htmlSticker1/language/www/US/MT/Three_Forks.gif" alt="" height="35" width="271" style="border:0px" /></div>

jatslo · Dec 30, 2005

However, the odds for flipping seven heads in a row are not good. I would bet against a heads on 7, if the previous 6 were heads. I would do the math for you, but seven is a big number with lots of combinations. TWO TOSSES: H = Heads T = Tails {HH, TH, HT, TT} <---- You have a 25% chance for each event, in which there are four possible outcomes. 7-Tosses = .78125% chance for each event.

JonClarke · Dec 30, 2005

Isn't it better to say the probably of it not happening decreases with passing time, not the probability of it happening increases? the probably remains the same each year. To use the Russian roulette example, each time you spin and pull the probability of living is 5:6, whether it is the first try or the sixth. But the probability of surviving six goes is 1:3. The chance of surviving 12 goes is only 1:9. But the probability that the next chamber us blank will still be 5:6. Jon <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars Arthur Clarke </div>

Asteroids

killer223

Guest

jatslo

Guest

dragon04

Guest

killer223

Guest

jatslo

Guest

killer223

Guest

jatslo

Guest

telfrow

Guest

yevaud

Guest

jmilsom

Guest

yevaud

Guest

jatslo

Guest

yevaud

Guest

jatslo

Guest

jatslo

Guest

bonzelite

Guest

yevaud

Guest

jatslo

Guest

jatslo

Guest

yevaud

Guest

Saiph

Guest

bonzelite

Guest

summoner

Guest

jatslo

Guest

JonClarke

Guest

Similar threads

TRENDING THREADS

Latest posts

Share this page