Astronomers discover 196-foot asteroid with 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032

[Admin]

A 196-foot-wide asteroid has a 1-in-83 chance of striking Earth in 2032. An expert tells Space.com where this asteroid could impact our planet and what level of destruction it could cause.

Astronomers discover 196-foot asteroid with 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032 : Read more

 

[m4n8tpr8b]

2024 YR4 first got the attention of astronomers on December 30, when the impact risk was estimated at about a tenth of the current estimate, but already warranted a 1 rating on the Torino Scale. The increase above 1% now means a Torino Scale 3 rating.

However, it's worth pointing out that as additional observations help to reduce the uncertainty of orbit calculations, the chance of impact usually increases first before dropping down to zero. This is because as the area of uncertainty around the calculated closest approach decreases, the Earth's cross-section stays constant, so the ratio of the two increases - that is until Earth is still inside the uncertainty area. So if say the predicted closest approach is X but with an uncertainty of 10X, then a reduction of the uncertainty to 5X will increase the impact risk roughly by a factor of 4.

Another interesting thing about this object is that if it misses Earth, it will still have a decent chance to hit the Moon, due to the alignment of the three bodies at the time (though obviously a much lower chance due to the Moon having 1/13.5 the cross section of the Earth).

 

[Unclear Engineer]

I guess it is still to early to talk about "keyholes" in the orbit calculations. Those are places where a "miss" still changes the orbit of the asteroid enough and in the right (wrong!) direction to cause it to strike Earth on the next pass.

A strike on the visible side of the Moon would provide a nice experiment in lunar crust conditions, because we would be able to predict it and watch it happen with the appropriate sensors already trained on the impact location.

 

[m4n8tpr8b]

I guess it is still to early to talk about "keyholes" in the orbit calculations. Those are places where a "miss" still changes the orbit of the asteroid enough and in the right (wrong!) direction to cause it to strike Earth on the next pass.

Good observation. For 2024 YR4, NASA currently also considers impacts in 2039, 2043, 2047 & 2074, all with very low probability due to very high uncertainty. If the chance of the 2032 impact is reduced to zero and the impact chance for at least one of the following approaches becomes much higher, then we can talk about a keyhole situation.

A strike on the visible side of the Moon would provide a nice experiment in lunar crust conditions, because we would be able to predict it and watch it happen with the appropriate sensors already trained on the impact location.

Unfortunately, I'm sceptical. Unless we can find the asteroid on photos years ago ("precovery"), we would be able to make a prediction with sufficient precision (less than say 25 km off) only very shortly before the impact. Maybe if we place an orbiter around the Moon and adjust its orbit so that it will be above the rough area & direct its sensors to the predicted impact site very shortly before impact, but the timeline is short to launch such a project in 2028 (when we can expect a good orbit solution).

 

[RaphOfMercy]

I'd be more concerned about apophis on 20 December 2029!

 

[COLGeek]

I'd be more concerned about apophis on 20 December 2029!

Why?

Asteroid Apophis: Will It Hit Earth? Your Questions Answered.

Apophis will come closer to Earth in 2029 than our geostationary communications satellites.

www.planetary.org

 

[m4n8tpr8b]

I'd be more concerned about apophis on 20 December 2029!

You're waaaaaaay behind the news, like 20 years and one month behind. The chance for a 20 December 2029 impact of Aphophis was predicted back in December 2004, but any chance of it was eliminated in just a few days (when it was found on years-old photos, allowing for a much more precise orbit calculation). It took several more years (until 2021) to gather enough observations to also eliminate any chance of an impact during any of the predicted later close approaches within this century.