Average Shuttle Launch Delay?

[bpfeifer]

Greetings,<br /><br />With the tight launch schedule for the remainder of this year, and for the rest of the ISS construction, many of us have expressed concerns about NASA's ability to actually meet the 2010 shuttle retirement target. I remember Mike Griffin telling a news conference that he wasn't worred about delays because the schedule could absorb the loss of a full year, and still complete the mission.<br /><br />I was wondering if anyone knew the average number of days a Shuttle launch is delayed. If we had this number, we could apply it to the remaiing flights schedule, and come up witha decent prediction. I would discount the down time due to the two accidents, because if we suffer another, it is likely the Shuttles would be permanently grounded.<br /><br />Anyone know where to find the launch delay information? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Brian J. Pfeifer http://sabletower.wordpress.com<br /> The Dogsoldier Codex http://www.lulu.com/sabletower<br /> </div>

 

[qso1]

bpfeifer:<br />Anyone know where to find the launch delay information?<br /><br />Me:<br />I don't know if anyone has ever tabulated that data. NASA may have but if not, it can be done by going to the NASA shuttle site and looking at the mission histories.<br /><br />If I had to guess, I'd say the average delay in days is probably 15ish. There have been a sizeable number of delayed flights going well beyond that number. But there have been flights in which delays were as little as 3 days or no delays at all. And I didn't include the accident downtime because as you mentioned, another one would shut the shuttle program down.<br /><br />I don't see a problem in the shuttle making its retirement date...it might be December 2010. Even if it goes beyond that, makes no difference to me. I can easily see it going a bit beyond 2010.<br /><br />Maybe one of these days I'll tabulate that data. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[llivinglarge]

NASA has always been terrible at meeting deadlines... I can honestly see them begging Congress for an extra year of funding that would extend the shuttle program for 2011.

 

[radarredux]

> <i><font color="yellow">I can honestly see them begging Congress for an extra year of funding that would extend the shuttle program for 2011.</font>/i><br /><br />Griffin has been very adamant about not flying beyond FY 2010.</i>

 

[bpfeifer]

"I have the data however it is behind the fire wall."<br /><br />Hmmm...Sounds like a good subject for a Freedom of Information Act request. Anyone know how that works? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Brian J. Pfeifer http://sabletower.wordpress.com<br /> The Dogsoldier Codex http://www.lulu.com/sabletower<br /> </div>

 

[qso1]

shuttle_guy:<br />A delay is a delay only after the launch day is officially set at the FRR a few weeks before the launch. Thus the latest "delays" to STS-117 do not count since the FRR has not been held.<br /><br />Me:<br />Thats why I mentioned having to guess. IMO, if 15 days turned out to be the average, thats not all that bad. If lower, better yet. The shuttle when its performing well...performs very well and it has done this many times. My hats off to you guys n gals at KSC who make that happen. I'd mentioned that maybe one of these days I'll tabulate the data and the info you provided will make that task more accurate if FRR dates are published. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[qso1]

llivinglarge:<br />NASA has always been terrible at meeting deadlines... I can honestly see them begging Congress for an extra year of funding that would extend the shuttle program for 2011.<br /><br />Me:<br />Personally, I don't see a problem with shuttle retirement slipping a year if that should happen. I'd rather see the money go to that than be wasted on the deficit or the Iraq rebuilding effort. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[subzero788]

NASA has to retire the shuttle in 2010. They need the funds freed up by shuttle retirement to build Ares and Orion, and it is likely any extension of shuttle flights would further delay these programs.<br />