"The NASA demo flights are not with a vehicle capable of carrying a crew. Just cargo in a sealed compartment "<br /><br />I'm sure the manned launches will cost more and take longer to develop but does it really matter that much when you consider that SpaceX could have $1.02 Billion for 11 total launches? Eleven F9's will cost $385 million. If two of those are F9 Heavies for BA, add another $110 million plus F9 Heavy development overhead. How much should be factored in for the manned version of the Dragon? It won't be enough to prevent SpaceX from making a profit in space.<br /><br />Also, if the demo flights work, NASA will give out a COTS 2 contract worth at least another billion. Also, Bigelow's subsequent contracts will be worth billions for flights beyond the first 8 he is defining now.<br /><br />The fun part of this conversation is that billions of dollars in contracts are available that were only dreamed of a decade ago. My how things change.<br /><br /><br />SLJ