BREAKING: SHUTTLE FLEET GROUNDED

[MeteorWayne]

That's kind of what I was thinking. Even though they have launched sucessfully with only a 40% go chance, it may not be worth the future risk to the tank. Maybe better to wait until the odds are at least 50/50% at tanking time.

 

[radarredux]

I have a problem using public money to develop something that Spacex will sell to others at a profit.

Certainly if the government fully funds it, then it wouldn't be COTS, it would be GOTS.

There are some things the government can do to encourage more commercial development, most of which the government is already doing, but I think the most important step is:

Fully support the ISS for a longer period of time or experiments on other orbiting research platforms. To attract private funding to build these rockets, investors want some confidence that there will be a market when the rockets are ready to fly. By NASA saying they are going to de-orbit ISS by 2016, and thus take away the re-supply market SpaceX and others are hoping for, it may take away their ability attract investors.

Though... I could argue the other side of this too.

 

[docm]

They've seen foam shedding on every mission, but this is different, so the engineering analyses based on old data can't be applied to decide whether or not it's safe to fly with the next ET.

The continuing soap opera of foam shedding is what I was referring to.

Straight out questions and please, no parochialism:

with a reconfigured BPC (boost protective cover), adjustments to the abort motors output and (if necessary - the adapter cone) could the Orion LAS be adapted to Dragon to speed its manned versions availability?

If so, why not do it if only as a contingency against another shuttle miscue that shuts down the program early and makes for an even worse gap than we already have? The goal should be continuing our ability to do manned missions, not getting territorial.

 

[scottb50]

They've seen foam shedding on every mission, but this is different, so the engineering analyses based on old data can't be applied to decide whether or not it's safe to fly with the next ET.

The continuing soap opera of foam shedding is what I was referring to.

Straight out questions and please, no parochialism:

with a reconfigured BPC (boost protective cover), adjustments to the abort motors output and (if necessary - the adapter cone) could the Orion LAS be adapted to Dragon to speed its manned versions availability?

If so, why not do it if only as a contingency against another shuttle miscue that shuts down the program early and makes for an even worse gap than we already have? The goal should be continuing our ability to do manned missions, not getting territorial.

I would think the performance of the launch would improve the more foam came off, especially if it was, somewhat, waterlogged. Did it get to the nominal orbit or go higher or lower?

 

[shuttle_guy]

The TPS foam does not absorb water.

Higher orbit due to less weight? That does not apply in the case of the shuttle which shuts down the engines based on velocity. If ther is excess propellant, and there always is, it is vented while the ET enters the atmosphere over the south Pacific about 45 min. after launch.

 

[scottb50]

The TPS foam does not absorb water.

I would think water seeps into cracks and expanding as it cools. it flexes the foam. absorbed is probably not the right word, pooled maybe?

 

[gunsandrockets]

"Straight out questions and please, no parochialism:

with a reconfigured BPC (boost protective cover), adjustments to the abort motors output and (if necessary - the adapter cone) could the Orion LAS be adapted to Dragon to speed its manned versions availability?

If so, why not do it if only as a contingency against another shuttle miscue that shuts down the program early and makes for an even worse gap than we already have? The goal should be continuing our ability to do manned missions, not getting territorial."

Well, maybe. But the effort probably wouldn't be worth it for several reasons.

A)Timing. The Shuttle will retire before 2011. Neither the Orion LAS nor the manned Dragon capsule are finished developing, and are unlikely to overlap the Shuttle's remaining operational life for any practical purpose.

B)Effort. The Orion LAS is HUGE :shock: , really really really big. It would probably make more sense to try an adapt the old Apollo LAS to fit the Dragon capsule instead.

c)Necessity. Since all the remaining Shuttle missions are to the ISS, the real crisis with foam shedding (and therefore shutdown of further Shuttle launches) is rescuing a Shuttle crew stranded at the Space Station with no way to return to Earth.
So rather than manned launch of the Dragon, a simpler solution to the problem is placement of a Dragon lifeboat at the ISS. This wouldn't require development of a Dragon LAS since a Dragon lifeboat could be launched unmanned up to the ISS to support the remaining Shuttle missions.

One option which I don't think anyone has suggested about the U.S. manned spaceflight gap is launching manned Dragon capsules before finishing development of a LAS! True it would be dangerous, but probably no more dangerous than current Shuttle flights are to crew.

 

[Testing]

They've seen foam shedding on every mission, but this is different, so the engineering analyses based on old data can't be applied to decide whether or not it's safe to fly with the next ET.

The continuing soap opera of foam shedding is what I was referring to.

Straight out questions and please, no parochialism:

with a reconfigured BPC (boost protective cover), adjustments to the abort motors output and (if necessary - the adapter cone) could the Orion LAS be adapted to Dragon to speed its manned versions availability?

If so, why not do it if only as a contingency against another shuttle miscue that shuts down the program early and makes for an even worse gap than we already have? The goal should be continuing our ability to do manned missions, not getting territorial.

I believe I was quoting Calli there. Not my words.

 

[docm]

Just a note from a PDF I posted to SB&T's SpaceX updates thread....

In this pdf, accessory material to Musk's testimony in June, it states that SpaceX has designs for its LAS (they call it an LES) and that NASA isn't Dragon's only customer, and to me it sounded like they meant manned flights.

Makes one wonder if an announcement isn't forthcoming after a successful Dragon flight or two.