MeteorWayne":30n64yzv said:
Nope. Despite the supermassive black hole, almost all of the mass of the galaxy is orbiting around the center of mass far away from the center. For example we are ~ 26,000 light years from the center (about 1/3 of the way out) and are in an orbit that takes 220 million years to complete. It's a relatively stable orbit and will remain so for billions of years, at least until we collide with Andromeda (if we do).
I'm not disagreeing with your conclusion, but I don't think your argument is the right way to reach it. Regardless of the distance between us (or any other point in the galaxy) and the galactic center, we are orbiting the center, as is everything else in the galaxy, so obviously gravity still affects all of its mass. Knowing that, we're still left without an answer to the original question: If gravity is left to run its course, will it eventually crunch all the mass of our galaxy into the black hole at the center?
If we assume a perfect universe in which the Milky Way is totally undisturbed by outside forces and left to reach its own conclusion, then we have four possible scenarios:
1.) All the mass in our galaxy spirals into the core and creates some as yet unknown celestial entity (super mega ultra massive black hole?).
2.) Gravity is too weak to hold the galaxy together and it flies apart.
3.) Everything in the galaxy enters a perfectly stable orbit and remains that way infinitely.
4.) Some combination of the first three scenarios.
My long answer: At any given point in the galactic disc, if the orbit is currently decaying, then that point will end up in the black hole at the center, given enough time. If it's not decaying, it won't end up in the black hole. We're not only orbiting the center, we're also orbiting everything that lies INSIDE our orbit. If all that stuff ended up in the black hole, the mass inside our orbit wouldn't necessarily change, so the change in gravitational pull on our solar system will likely be very small. Thus, I believe the current state of our orbit--decaying or not decaying--is a good indicator of where we'll end up.
The short answer is "nobody knows," at least not yet. I don't think we've ever observed the end of a galaxy. There are some galactic collisions around, but as far as I know, nobody has ever spotted a galaxy that is on the verge of consuming itself. Since we have no president for an occurrence like this, all we can do is guess based on the knowledge we have. We need to know a lot more about the life cycle of a black hole than we know now before we can really start pondering how they affect the space and bodies around them.
Here are some good links that are referenced in the wiki article on galaxies:
http://www.astr.ua.edu/keel/galaxies/agnintro.html
Galaxies with active nuclei might "dry up" by blasting their matter out in jets.
http://www.astrosociety.org/pubs/mercur ... osmic.html
Check out the section on the Degenerate Era and onward.