Can the remaining shuttles do 16-17 flights in 4 years?

no_way · May 15, 2006

Q: Can the remaining shuttles do 16-17 flights in 4 years? A: No Q: What defines ISS to be complete ? A: Obsolescence and when bits start falling apart faster than new ones arrive

j05h · May 15, 2006

>> "Personally, I'll be shocked if NASA completes 8 missions in 4 years let alone 16. Or 10. " /> Prepare yourself to be shocked. Excellent! I'm definitely in the doubter-camp, but I want you guys to succeed with all my heart. Send the old birds off in style. Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center">We need a first generation of pioneers. </div> </div>

steve82 · May 15, 2006

"“Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!” -Bluto, Animal House

nacnud · May 15, 2006

Eeep! The Germans bombed Peal Harbour, when was this! <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />

drwayne · May 15, 2006

In 1977 - in the mind of John Blutarski in the movie "Animal House" I loved that movie! I had a poster of US Senator Blutarski up in my room forever in my young and single days... Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything." Admiral Jackie Fisher </div>

lampblack · May 15, 2006

In 1977 - in the mind of John Blutarski in the movie "Animal House" I loved that movie! I had a poster of US Senator Blutarski up in my room forever in my young and single days... Yes indeedy... he was a fine young Republican. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Just tell the truth and let the chips fall... </div>

radarredux · May 15, 2006

> Excellent! I'm definitely in the doubter-camp, but I want you guys to succeed with all my heart. Send the old birds off in style./i> I am schizophrenic on the subject. Regarding the Shuttle, it will either make all the flights or will only make 1-2 more flights and then be retired because of on-going safety issues. If NASA can get to the third or fourth flight without a significant issue (e.g., big foam piece), then they will probably get all the rest in. Regarding ISS, I am definitely not happy with its design, costs, or execution. But on the other hand, once it is operational with crewof 6, then it provides the best opportunity to bootstrap a LEO-based private space enterprise. Prizes are nice (e.g., X Prize, Lunar lander prize), but on-going payments for legitimate services (cargo, crew) will provide a better foundation. So... I hope the Shuttle completes its mission of building out ISS, and then NASA can award contracts to private companies to fly people (including tourists) and cargo to ISS.

john_316 · May 16, 2006

Here are my questions? When we had over 4 flights a year; how many people where employed to overhaul each shuttle during this time frame? Do we have enough people to do it now? Is that safety margin as good as it was during that time frame? 4 flights in a year would allow getting some of the ISS completed and risking further delays. The more delays in ISS the older it gets and how are we going to deal with that? How are we going to service ISS once the STS is retired? Are we going to sell off the ISS to Russia or other interests? If the retirement of the Shuttles becomes "null and void" and we continue to keep them flying past 2012 and still don’t have an operational CEV or HLV then my suggestion is this: Build Shuttle-2 variants or "new" up rated shuttles and retire the current fleet on ship per ship basis. This is if they can-X CEV in the not too distant future. Hopefully the private sector will jump on board if Virgin Galactic is successful with SS-2 and its program. That will bring more people to want to do other things such as take a trip to the moon or even orbit the moon or earth. Once the investments are made and technologies progress we will see an increase in INTEREST to do all these things. I would like to see manned exploration of our solar system before I die. If this happens great if doesn't then I truly know that we are incompetent! I want the Shuttles to be SUCCESSFUL in their current mission status and to see a flight every 3 months would be nice. I also hope that they accelerate the CEV schedule to have the plans ready this year and to begin cutting metal by October or November with the CEV and SM. I think that ATK can begin work on SRB 1st Stage soon. If anyone knows the situation there then please let us know. I would hope they could have the first operational first stage ready by midsummer 2007 (hopeful).

gawin · May 16, 2006

One question i have is how many daylight only launch windows are thier per year? The next few launches the number of flights will be governed by this. Add into this the fact that they did not properly test the new design of the foam on the ET <sans pal ramp /> they only did a wind tunnel test with out a shaker table or with cryo fuels hence making the test virtualy useless as vibration and expansion has a major impact on foam cracking and shedding.

mattblack · May 16, 2006

When USB memory sticks and other similar media exceed 4 gigs, I'll be storing the footage on them. Also, when BLU-RAY discs come along, I'll be recompiling them to that format. I also plan to regularly back up the finished discs to newer good quality discs every 5 years or so. I've also given thought to buying a digital (tape) camcorder to transfer the archive to a non-optical format. My space tape collection are hundreds of hours of ABC, CBS, BBC, TVNZ and Australian television newsclips, interviews and articles about the Shuttle, Mir, ISS, planetary probes etc. dating from 1982 to present day. Not bad when you consider you can't get NASA TV here. I'll also be keeping my orignal VHS tapes (mostly TDK & SKC Extra-High Grade, all in the PAL system) in safe, dry locations. I'm currently compiling my space & aviation documentary archive to DVD, seperately from the newsclips. And unfortunately, sorry; I doubt much of it is public domain. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> One Percent of Federal Funding For Space: America CAN Afford it!! LEO is a Prison -- It's time for a JAILBREAK!! </div>

subzero788 · May 16, 2006

My bet is that the remaining flights will go relatively smoothly, with the usual minor problems and delays. But given that they have a good 9 months or so in reserve this won't affect the manifest to the point they can't complete the station. Foam loss won't be much of an issue; if a major problem does affect launches i bet it will have nothing to do with foam. Remember the record, over 100 missions without critical foam-caused damage--if foam is such a problem NASA must have be incrediably lucky over the years. And with all work put into redesign &detection of foam and the ISS "safe-haven", shuttle flights have never been safer.

mattblack · May 16, 2006

What he said. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> One Percent of Federal Funding For Space: America CAN Afford it!! LEO is a Prison -- It's time for a JAILBREAK!! </div>

askold · May 16, 2006

"From what I've heard, NASA and USA have made provisions for 5-1 year extentions, should the need arise. " Read the 4/28/06 news conference transcript: http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/148184main_shuttle_brief_20060428.pdf Griffin leaves no shadow of a doubt - 2010 is a firm date.

radarredux · May 16, 2006

> One question i have is how many daylight only launch windows are thier per year?/i> Supposedly the radar results they got on the last launch were really good, so they can use that instead of relying only on visible light cameras. I don't quite understand how the foam is visible on radar. Does anyone know of any information published online showing the results of the radar, especially compared to what is known from other sensors?

radarredux · May 16, 2006

> Foam loss won't be much of an issue; if a major problem does affect launches i bet it will have nothing to do with foam. Remember the record, over 100 missions without critical foam-caused damage--if foam is such a problem NASA must have be incrediably lucky over the years. And with all work put into redesign &detection of foam and the ISS "safe-haven", shuttle flights have never been safer./i> The foam does not need to strike the shuttle in order for it to be a problem for the shuttle program. During the last flight the piece of foam didn't strike the shuttle, but it resulted in the grounding of the shuttles (or suspension of flight) for a year. I agree that any single flight is safer, but the Shuttle program has never been at a greater risk. NASA has been very clear following the CAIB that they will not fly the shuttle unless the foam problem has been "solved". Politically it will be very difficult for NASA to keep flying without having a reasonable solution. (Personally, I think the CAIB over did it, and I think O'Keefe made a mistake by making a big political show of fully accepting the report.)

radarredux · May 16, 2006

> Griffin leaves no shadow of a doubt - 2010 is a firm date./i> I agree, but... (there is always a "but") Congress or the next President can overrule Griffin or remove Griffin from office.

willpittenger · May 16, 2006

Grouper can force audio to be streamed (to the complaint of everyone who recorded themselves), but has no streaming support what so ever for video. Sorry. May in 3.0... We have some video generation capabilities, but no streaming. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>

willpittenger · May 16, 2006

I was going to ask if perhaps Infrared could be used. I assume it would see the foam, but how would they judge where the ceiling is? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>

willpittenger · May 16, 2006

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />Build Shuttle-2 variants or "new" up rated shuttles and retire the current fleet on ship per ship basis. This is if they can-X CEV in the not too distant future. <hr /></blockquote> I hate to bring this up, but most of the spare components went into something called "Endeavor." This included the only spare cockpit. Seems a fifth orbiter (not counting Enterprise and other prototypes) was originally scheduled but canceled as the cost ballooned. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>

willpittenger · May 16, 2006

I agree on the foam. Too many politicians are acting like chickens with their heads cut off. Not sure about the CAIB part. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>

lampblack · May 16, 2006

Regarding the Shuttle, it will either make all the flights or will only make 1-2 more flights and then be retired because of on-going safety issues. If NASA can get to the third or fourth flight without a significant issue (e.g., big foam piece), then they will probably get all the rest in. Prezactly. This is the single most salient and on-point observation in this entire thread. If the shuttle dodges the foam problem in the next flight or two, it will in all likelihood successfully fly the rest of the missions and ISS will be completed. If the foam problem crops up again in the next flight (or two), the shuttle is dead meat and ISS remains on life support. Flip a coin. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Just tell the truth and let the chips fall... </div>

lampblack · May 16, 2006

if foam is such a problem NASA must have be incrediably lucky over the years. Yes. More lucky, apparently, than anyone realized. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Just tell the truth and let the chips fall... </div>

subzero788 · May 17, 2006

"If the shuttle dodges the foam problem in the next flight or two, it will in all likelihood successfully fly the rest of the missions and ISS will be completed. If the foam problem crops up again in the next flight (or two), the shuttle is dead meat and ISS remains on life support. " If the shuttle goes then so does the US manned space program for at least 5-6 years (Griffin has said even with maximal funding the CEV wouldn't be ready till 2011 at the earliest). And I don't believe NASA or the United States would accept that.

radarredux · May 17, 2006

> If the shuttle goes then so does the US manned space program for at least 5-6 years (Griffin has said even with maximal funding the CEV wouldn't be ready till 2011 at the earliest). And I don't believe NASA or the United States would accept that./i> Well, the US has only had 1 flight in over 3 years. That is pretty close to no active manned space program. I also doubt that it would take 5-6 years for NASA to get the CEV / CLV flying to ISS if that was its primary focus (i.e., it did not have the distraction of flying the shuttle and constructing ISS). If that was truly the case, I would say shut NASA down now. By the way, another data point in the cost of the Shuttle program... In the latest AW&ST (May 1), an article citing Griffin says "It costs $4.5 billion/b> each year to maintain the shuttle program, not counting actual launches/b>, because of the standing army of people it employes." (emphasis added). If after 40+ years of manned spaceflight experience, technology enhancements, and an annual development budget of $4.5 Billion (e.g., shifting shuttle budget to new CEV development) it would take NASA 5-6 years to build a capsule capable of reaching ISS, I don't see how anyone could support NASA.

rocketwatcher2001 · May 17, 2006

Griffin leaves no shadow of a doubt - 2010 is a firm date. He says it's a firm date, alright, but he also says that 2010 is 4 1/2 years away.......it's 3 1/2 years away. There are provisions for 5 1 year extensions between NASA and USA. True, the program is sheduled to be finished by 2010, but if it isn't, they have to finish it......and that's where the extensions come in. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

Can the remaining shuttles do 16-17 flights in 4 years?

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