Collisions could increase chance of 'God of Destruction' asteroid Apophis hitting Earth

[Admin]

Apophis will come close enough to Earth to be seen with the naked eye in 2029, but a chance encounter with another asteroid could steer 'God of Destruction' space rock destructively close on a future pass.

Collisions could increase chance of 'God of Destruction' asteroid Apophis hitting Earth : Read more

 

[absorbingphotons]

At best, this article is clickbait. At its worst, this article is bad journalism.

Writing a headline like that when you know well that NASA has already stated there is 0% chance of Apophis hitting Earth for the next 100 years. You all should be ashamed of yourselves...

Stop sensationalizing Apophis just for clicks & ad revenue. Greed on its finest display.

 

[Classical Motion]

After looking at the moon, I wouldn't give any rock out there a 0% chance.

 

[absorbingphotons]

Eh, NASA still said 0%. I think I'll trust NASA over some random stranger on the internet who has an opinion.

"Now, the results from a new radar observation campaign combined with precise orbit analysis have helped astronomers conclude that there is no risk of Apophis impacting our planet for at least a century."

NASA Analysis: Earth Is Safe From Asteroid Apophis for 100-Plus Years - NASA

The near-Earth object was thought to pose a slight risk of impacting Earth in 2068, but now radar observations have ruled that out.

www.nasa.gov

 

[Classical Motion]

I’ve always been an oddball. Even if I had a catalog with all the rocks and moving positions for the last hundred years, I would not give any rock a 0% chance of collision with earth.

And I don’t believe in probability. But I do believe in unknown happenstance.

The center of our MW could have super nova-ed 23 k years ago and we not know it. Not even the shine has got here. One of out neighbors could have done so years ago and might hit us until tomorrow.

The only warning is arrival. Just a shine shock could plummet us with our rocks.

 

[Pogo]

And any strike by another object has a greater chance of causing Apophis to move farther away from Earth as toward it.

 

[Unclear Engineer]

I look at this article as a good example of thinking about the incompleteness of most of our probability modeling.

Clearly, just like we hope to be able to defend our planet by striking an asteroid with a spacecraft impactor to deflect it enough, early enough, for it to be made to miss Earth, there is an opposite side to the same physical concept - a natural object collision with an asteroid could make a miss turn into a hit on Earth.

Looking at it as carefully as we know how, including what sized objects could move Apophis' path 19,000 miles towards Earth by 2029, how many such objects are in the area of its orbit, and what the probability is for such an impact to move the orbit to the "wrong" path instead of a "better" path, seems like good scientific thinking to me. It helps us gauge the reliability of the projected path and prediction that we are "safe" (from this one) for 100 years or more.

 

[Classical Motion]

From what we know, we think only our home brew rocks have impacted. Who’s to know if external system debris could enter. Or might have in the past. And what kind of warning we might get.

What would it be like to pass thru a galactic debris field.

If 100,000(probably many more) foreign rocks entered our system and would assume at high velocity, would we even have time to calculate probability? What could we really do but watch.

 

[rod]

I note this report I read yesterday. Earth may have had a ring system 466 million years ago, https://phys.org/news/2024-09-earth-million-years.html, ref - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X24004230?via=ihub

"In a discovery that challenges our understanding of Earth's ancient history, researchers have found evidence suggesting that Earth may have had a ring system that formed around 466 million years ago, at the beginning of a period of unusually intense meteorite bombardment known as the Ordovician impact spike."

My note. As more and more astronomical studies take place involving impacts in the solar system, Charles Darwin warm little pond in 1871 needs much modification now for violent catastrophism, including long ages for evolution to take place, more violence, more mass extinction, and death. Looks like violent impacts and catastrophism must be extended well beyond 4 billion years ago now. Apophis fits into this paradigm and extending catastrophism into the present, perhaps