S
SpeedFreek
Guest
Heh, that was such a groundbreaking and important paper that SciAm asked the authors to do a dumbed down version for them! The article is not fully available online anymore (all the pics are missing), but the link in my sig leads to Charles Lineweavers own pdf version of the article, with diagrams intact but no webpage adverts!
The Hubble constant is not a constant in the way we usually think of the term - it is the end result of the combination of the various rates of expansion over the whole history of the universe! It tells us how much the universe has expanded in 13.7 billion years, and gives us an effective recession velocity for wherever we think everything is, "right now". It is like the "average speed" of something that has been accelerating and decelerating, as measured at the end of its journey!
70 km/s/Mpc means 70km/s per 3.2 million light-years, so that's
70,000 km/s per 3.2 billion light-years, so that's
700,000 km/s per 32 billion light-years... etc etc.
This means the edge of the observable universe (the surface of last scattering, the comoving coordinate where the CMBR we currently detect was originally emitted from), at 46 billion light-years distance, would have a recession speed of around 1 billion km/s, something over 3 times the speed of light. This makes sense as, if the universe is only 13.7 billion years old, something would have had to recede at over 3 times the speed of light to be at least 3 times that distance away in light-years by now! But at the time the CMBR was emitted, the surface of last scattering is thought to have been receding at over 50 times the speed of light!
Due to the immense but rapidly decelerating expansion rate early in the universe, combined with the long period of deceleration that followed, and only the recent and seemingly relatively slow acceleration, the Hubble constant has always been falling and will continue to do so until such a time as the accelerating rate of expansion outstrips the immense rate of expansion early on - it is highly unlikely this will happen, so we can consider the Hubble constant will continue to fall pretty much forever even in an accelerating universe, unless there is a Big-Rip caused by dark energy that grows in strength. (You might have to think about this a little bit - it is hard to describe in words!)
Not that any of this answers your actual question of course! But the way you related the Hubble constant to the expectations of what we would observe prompted me to try to describe what the Hubble constant really means.
As we look at very distant galaxies, we see them when the universe was a lot younger and was expanding a lot faster than it is at present. So, we see the universe at a time when the Hubble parameter (and thus a distant galaxy's recession speed) was a lot higher than it is today. But.... their redshift tells us how much the universe has expanded since their light was emitted, and thus allows us to work out how far away they would be today (and thus how fast they would have moved when averaged across the whole history of the universe, if everything was in the same place to begin with!).
When we look at certain types of supernova with a known brightness and duration, their apparent brightness and their duration tells us how far away they were, due to light travel time and the expansion of the universe. As our instruments got better, we started finding distant supernovae that seemed to be further away than they should have been, assuming the universe was still decelerating. They looked a little dimmer and a little more time-dilated than expected, and after collecting data for enough of these supernovae it was found that, sometime in the last 5 billion years or so, the rate expansion had levelled out and started to accelerate, meaning distant things were a little more distant than previously expected!
I hope some of this helps.
The Hubble constant is not a constant in the way we usually think of the term - it is the end result of the combination of the various rates of expansion over the whole history of the universe! It tells us how much the universe has expanded in 13.7 billion years, and gives us an effective recession velocity for wherever we think everything is, "right now". It is like the "average speed" of something that has been accelerating and decelerating, as measured at the end of its journey!
70 km/s/Mpc means 70km/s per 3.2 million light-years, so that's
70,000 km/s per 3.2 billion light-years, so that's
700,000 km/s per 32 billion light-years... etc etc.
This means the edge of the observable universe (the surface of last scattering, the comoving coordinate where the CMBR we currently detect was originally emitted from), at 46 billion light-years distance, would have a recession speed of around 1 billion km/s, something over 3 times the speed of light. This makes sense as, if the universe is only 13.7 billion years old, something would have had to recede at over 3 times the speed of light to be at least 3 times that distance away in light-years by now! But at the time the CMBR was emitted, the surface of last scattering is thought to have been receding at over 50 times the speed of light!
Due to the immense but rapidly decelerating expansion rate early in the universe, combined with the long period of deceleration that followed, and only the recent and seemingly relatively slow acceleration, the Hubble constant has always been falling and will continue to do so until such a time as the accelerating rate of expansion outstrips the immense rate of expansion early on - it is highly unlikely this will happen, so we can consider the Hubble constant will continue to fall pretty much forever even in an accelerating universe, unless there is a Big-Rip caused by dark energy that grows in strength. (You might have to think about this a little bit - it is hard to describe in words!)
Not that any of this answers your actual question of course! But the way you related the Hubble constant to the expectations of what we would observe prompted me to try to describe what the Hubble constant really means.
As we look at very distant galaxies, we see them when the universe was a lot younger and was expanding a lot faster than it is at present. So, we see the universe at a time when the Hubble parameter (and thus a distant galaxy's recession speed) was a lot higher than it is today. But.... their redshift tells us how much the universe has expanded since their light was emitted, and thus allows us to work out how far away they would be today (and thus how fast they would have moved when averaged across the whole history of the universe, if everything was in the same place to begin with!).
When we look at certain types of supernova with a known brightness and duration, their apparent brightness and their duration tells us how far away they were, due to light travel time and the expansion of the universe. As our instruments got better, we started finding distant supernovae that seemed to be further away than they should have been, assuming the universe was still decelerating. They looked a little dimmer and a little more time-dilated than expected, and after collecting data for enough of these supernovae it was found that, sometime in the last 5 billion years or so, the rate expansion had levelled out and started to accelerate, meaning distant things were a little more distant than previously expected!
I hope some of this helps.