Question Does anyone think we SpaceX (Elon Musk) can land the first people on mars by 2024?

[Mike Crognale]

Anything is possible, however a survivable landing is highly unlikely. In addition to a good landing, morality dictates having the ability to build an infrastructure to house the Astronauts after the landing. And then there is the task of returning the people home. A successful human landing on Mar's could be accomplished but I don't believe a suicide mission would be favorably accepted by most of us.

Have you followed the planning for the Mars mission? The plan is to launch drone ships that will contain habitat and supplies that will be there when the colonists arrive. I fully expect that there will be a thriving colony there by 2030.

 

[Ken Fabian]

I don't expect any crewed missions to Mars this decade and no attempts to establish colonies, probably ever. There is no real plan and the necessary technology is barely out of concept stage. More significantly, there is insufficient financial backing - probably because there are no commercial opportunities there.

SpaceX doesn't need Mars to succeed as a space launch company - near Earth space is where the real business opportunities ie servicing taxpayer funded government contracts, are found - but the Mars hype helps keep public interest high.

 

[sam85geo]

Eine ist Aussage zwischen 2033 und 2035. Dann ist der Mars nicht so weit weg und wir werden mehr über Strahlenschutz wissen.

Es tut mir leid, mein Deutsch ist nicht sehr gut.
Yours may be the best time frame estimate for humans on Mars, provided Mr. Musk and associates don't run out money/investors and the world stays out of major conflicts.

 

[nebula]

Whether or not Elon Musk achieves his ambitious 2024 timeline is possibly not as significant as what the tech giant and influencer does with his platform to expose a new generation (which basically believe that the Moon landing and the Apollo missions were ancient history recorded in black and white), to space exploration.
Could this be a catalyst to inspire the belief that this is not only achievable but a worthwhile endeavor to benefit humankind..
The kind of funding required for future space exploration by governments and private enterprise will still need strong community support.

 

[Heather-Celeste]

Most importantly over the cost, companies that can be created, or regulation is safety for the brave individuals willing to go forward and begin this nearly pointless colonialism of new planets. Ultimately I declare this entire region of Mars my own private launch pad and air tight tower and I made this non-democratic region too....

 

[Epiphany]

Now, I think Elon is the Edison, Ford and Werner Von Braun of our generation, all wrapped into one. 2024 is probably too ambitious for the first live humans on Mars. However, I’ll put down a stake that SpaceX will land an unmanned version of Starship on Mars, which is still a seriously difficult goal, before the end of 2024.

Does anyone know the approximate dates of lift off for a reasonable transfer orbit to Mars? If there some resource that shows potential launch windows?

 

[Epiphany]

there seems to be some simularity between Elon Musk selling the starship and P T Barnum selling tickets to see the worlds biggest elephant.

2024 is too aggressive. But it’s been only a bit over 5 years sinceSpaceX landed their first booster, and since then they have had over 100 successful launches, reusing boosters as much as 9 times, and they’ve put up close to half of ALL operational satellites currently in orbit. PT Barnum he is not.

 

[ThatSpaceBoy]

Yes, there is no doubt in my mind that Elon and SpaceX can be launching humans to Mars by 2024. Elon has so much money that he could most likely purchase anything that he needs to accomplish this, and since SpaceX is run/owned by him, there is no doubt in my mind that this will be accomplished.

 

[Catastrophe]

Eine ist Aussage zwischen 2033 und 2035. Dann ist der Mars nicht so weit weg und wir werden mehr über Strahlenschutz wissen.

It is stated 'between 2033 and 2035', when Mars is not that far away and we will know more about radiation protection. (Mars is nearest between 2033 and 2035 . . . . . . )

So eine unmöglichkeit ist es doch nicht, dass wir Deutsch sprechen können.

Cat

 

[Catastrophe]

"With our antigravity fission-annihilation propulsion, we can be on Mars in 1-5 days."

OUR? Who are we who have this?

Cat

 

[CCooper96]

I don't think that having such big ambitions is bad. At least, Musk knows who he is, what he achieved, and how much power he has, so I suppose he can make a sober assessment of what he tries to do. It's only 3 years left to 2024, and he still tests prototypes. However, when I look at the speed at which he develops his technologies, I understand that his aim is rather real. I'm sure he will land people on Mars by 2024.

 

[Catastrophe]

"I don't think that having such big ambitions is bad."

A touch of realism doesn't hurt either.

Cat

 

[agent00seven]

It is possible to land a person on Mars, but the return trip doesn't seem possible.

Why bother? Is the likely loss of life worth the bragging rights? We've got enough robots roaming Mars to give us sufficient data. I'm sure simple life once existed on Mars when it was warmer. Perhaps it still exists underground. It doesn't take a whole lot of number crunching to realize we are not alone in the universe. Even if we are alone in this galaxy, which seems impossible, there are hundreds of billions of galaxies out there. If each galaxy has an average of only one planet with intelligent life, that adds up to hundreds of billions of planets with intelligent life.

 

[agent00seven]

I don't think that having such big ambitions is bad. At least, Musk knows who he is, what he achieved, and how much power he has, so I suppose he can make a sober assessment of what he tries to do. It's only 3 years left to 2024, and he still tests prototypes. However, when I look at the speed at which he develops his technologies, I understand that his aim is rather real. I'm sure he will land people on Mars by 2024.

Musk said doing so would likely be a death sentence. The government should prevent him from sending a person to Mars to do what robots can do better.

 

[IDNeon]

The only people who think SpaceX can get past Geostationary are people who don't know how short SpaceX is in dV.

SpaceX can't even go to the moon let alone Mars.

 

[IDNeon]

It is possible to land a person on Mars, but the return trip doesn't seem possible.

Why bother? Is the likely loss of life worth the bragging rights? We've got enough robots roaming Mars to give us sufficient data. I'm sure simple life once existed on Mars when it was warmer. Perhaps it still exists underground. It doesn't take a whole lot of number crunching to realize we are not alone in the universe. Even if we are alone in this galaxy, which seems impossible, there are hundreds of billions of galaxies out there. If each galaxy has an average of only one planet with intelligent life, that adds up to hundreds of billions of planets with intelligent life.

Its not even possible to land someone on Mars.

Chemical fuel isn't efficient enough to enter Martian Orbit for any spaceship more than 1.6% payload to 98.4% fuel.

Roughly.

That is to say, to get 100,000kg to Mars you have to use 10,000,000 kg of fuel.

Simply unimaginable

 

[ThePatriotBeast]

I'm pretty sure I got an email from space.com about how Elon Musk said "a bunch of people will probably die" going to mars. Here's the article: Elon Musk warned of the dangers of crewed Mars exploration in an April 22, 2021 interview. Elon Musk reminds us all that 'a bunch of people will probably die' going to Mars By Chelsea Gohd

 

[ThePatriotBeast]

I'm pretty sure I got an email from space.com about how Elon Musk said "a bunch of people will probably die" going to mars. Here's the article: Elon Musk warned of the dangers of crewed Mars exploration in an April 22, 2021 interview. Elon Musk reminds us all that 'a bunch of people will probably die' going to Mars By Chelsea Gohd

I don't think someone can go to mars lacking confidence like this. But he does have a good point

 

[dsnyrocketengine]

two things come to mind when considering a manned landing on Mars 1) the distance 2) the atmosphere. the distance part can probably be worked out since astronauts are now spending months on the ISS, still though if there were a problem they could return to Earth quickly since the ISS is in relatively low orbit- Mars on the other hand is 6-9 months away. Although physics is not one of my strong points , I would think having to go though Mar's atmosphere would be alot more difficult than landing on the Moon with no atmosphere to contend with.

 

[Catastrophe]

wind gases, that quickly escape into space.
Earth - Mars - Moon Comparison - digipac.ca
http://www.digipac.ca › contents › chapter1 › marsfacts

Earth 101.3 Mars 0.7 Moon 0.0 mPa

Cat

 

[Clovis]

Does anyone think we SpaceX (Elon Musk) can land the first people on Mars by 2024? (My emphasis).

Not I.

Cat

Not I either. I'm still looking at the late 2030s if even then.

 

[dsnyrocketengine]

I believe its going to happen ,but 2024 is a stretch

 

[Clovis]

2024 is a stretch concerning Mars. The Moon, not so much. I read an article once that suggested somewhat elderly volunteers in good shape for Mars.

 

[Slarty1080]

two things come to mind when considering a manned landing on Mars 1) the distance 2) the atmosphere. the distance part can probably be worked out since astronauts are now spending months on the ISS, still though if there were a problem they could return to Earth quickly since the ISS is in relatively low orbit- Mars on the other hand is 6-9 months away. Although physics is not one of my strong points , I would think having to go though Mar's atmosphere would be alot more difficult than landing on the Moon with no atmosphere to contend with.

One thing comes to my mind concerning a crewed Mars landing, the vast quantity of propellants required. Roughly 90% of the lift off mass is propellant and perhaps less than 5% is actual payload. And most of that "payload" is in fact more propellent for launching the ship from Low Earth Orbit to Mars. So in one way the atmosphere of Mars is actually quite handy in that you don't need to bring yet more propellant to land on Mars. Not to say it will be easy it won't, but it is just about manageable. On the Moon this is not possible so even more propellant has to be used to land.

Will humans be walking on Mars by 2024? IMO no its too soon and there's too much still to do. Perhaps only a very slim outside chance of a robotic Starship landing in 2024 followed by a crew in 2026. Much more likely would be a crew landing on Mars in the 2028 - 2033 time frame. I find people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in a year but under estimate what can be achieved in a decade.

 

[serhiy1635]

I support more uncrewed missions like the Perseverance rover mission or Chinese mission Zhurong Mars rover
I`d like to mention ‘Rosalind Franklin’ mission. This mission will attempt to search for life on Mars. The launch is scheduled for 2022. Interesting fact, that this is the first Mars mission by British aerospace companies. Looking forward to this mission and I hope it will open some new things for us. https://www.skyrora.com/blog/uk-space-news