<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I'1</DIV></p><p><font size="5"><br /></font></p><p> </p><p> </p><h1 align="center">A Chinese Project Orion</h1> <p> (Project Orion was a 1950s US program to design a heavy spaceship that could carry people to other planets in a reasonably time. The spaceship would be driven by exploding nuclear bombs behind it. In my
Annotated Book List, I describe a wonderful book that George Dyson wrote about his father's involvement in the project.) </p> <p> The Orion Project thrived more than a half century ago. It is dead in the United States. However, in Spring 2004, it occurs to me that the Chinese government might want to undertake an Orion project. They could technically. </p> <p> The Chinese government might want one or more Orion spaceships carrying nuclear weapons. A single vessel, or several, would enable them to gain immediate military parity with the US. They could offer a promise of retaliation to Japan and South Korea if any neighbor attacked. Moreover, they could threaten to attack any US warship that came to defend Taiwan against mainland threats, without risking too much that the US would launch an all out nuclear attack. </p> <p> The Chinese could launch an Orion vehicle straight up to orbit beyond the distance of the moon. It need not cross the US. The distance would mean that a Chinese attack could not be undertaken quickly, which would comfort the US. (The US might well consider an Orion vehicle in low earth orbit as highly dangerous, since if it crossed over the US, it could launch a nuclear attack with almost no warning.) </p> <p> A distant orbit would also mean that a missile attacking the Orion vehicle would be visible for a long time. Either it could be destroyed, or the Orion vehicle could simply turn its pusher plate towards it, so when the attacker exploded, the Orion vehicle would simply experience a shove as it did during launch. Contemporary laser and particle beam weapons are too weak to have much effect on an Orion vehicle. </p> <p> The US would, of course, build and launch its own Orion vehicles, but design and construction might take several years. In the meantime, the Chinese government could aim for `re-unification' with Taiwan both by intimidating Taiwan more strongly than now, and by offering more benefits for accepting mainland colonization. </p> <p> Possibly, mainland China could take over Taiwan. Certainly, the goal is one that the Chinese government supports. The issue for it is risk and cost. Is it worth bringing the `rebel' province to heel? </p> <p> For the Chinese, an Orion project would provide it with a way to intimidate Taiwan, a way to gain strategic parity with the US, and a way to offer Chinese scientists, as well as scientists from other countries, a way to explore the solar system. </p> <p> Also, Orion spaceships would enable China to take control of the Spratly Islands and thereby reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern oil. Moreover, the government could talk about collecting solar energy in space and beaming it to earth as microwaves. (Only enemies of China would be concerned about the military implications of multi-gigawatt microwave beams.) </p> <p> Because of the radiation release, the US would not want to launch many Orion vehicles itself. Only after the US succeeded with the `Z-pinch' implosion technique being developed in Los Alamos, or an equivalent, would the US gain a relatively radiation-free trigger for its bombs. </p> <p> (Of course, Freeman Dyson might be right in thinking that relatively radiation-free bombs using plutonium, uranium, or other elements could be designed and built. If that is the case, the US could launch many Orion spaceships and the environmental questions would turn to the ozone layer, how many people and animals are blinded at each launch by the explosive flashes, and so on. Incidentally, Ted Taylor hopes Dyson is wrong. Taylor ran the Orion project, and before that designed both the largest and the smallest fission bombs the US exploded. He worries that someone could design bombs that require very little fissionable material, thus making proliferation much cheaper.) </p> <p> The main complication is getting replacement crews up to an Orion spaceship after it has been launched. Few want to try to land an Orion spaceship back on the earth (or splash it down in the ocean, a more likely `landing' spot). </p> <p> Nonetheless, crews must be replaced. Ordinary chemical rockets, for all their expense, might do. Or thermal nuclear rocket engines, such as those tested in the 1960s, might be developed into working vehicles. The US would probably use chemical rockets, at least initially. One problem with nuclear thermal rockets is that they release fission products into their exhaust. </p> <p> As far as we know, the Chinese are working only on chemical rockets. But if they did go for an Orion project, then it would make sense for them to design and build nuclear thermal rockets as `shuttles' to carry people from the surface of the earth to Orion vehicles, and not to worry about the radiation release. </p> <p> In 1958, the people in the Orion Project thought they would be exploring the rings of Saturn by 1970. As George Dyson said, unlike nuclear weapons, where the design process was more interesting than the outcome, in the Orion project, the outcome would be more interesting than the design process. </p><p>
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